Are Meg Whitman's days at eBay numbered?


Meg Whitman is at the top of her game. She's been named one of Forbes' top five Most Powerful Women, one of Time's Digital 50, Salon calls hers one of their fave "Brilliant Careers" and Business Week calls her an Empire Builder. In short, she rocks the board room with her underplayed charm and woman-of-the-people management style. With her at the helm, eBay has gone from little company that could to one of the biggest economies anywhere.

And now. Right about the time her hand-picked COO, Maynard Webb, retires this August, Meg will turn 50. She has already been at this CEO job for eight years (equal, it should be noted, with her longest tenure ever at a job up until now), rebuffing the opportunity to be CEO of Disney and (one would imagine) any number of less-well-publicized overtures.

When I saw the news about Maynard's retirement, I thought, boy Meg has been at this job forever. And, hasn't she about done all she set out to do? And naturally, the next thing I wondered was, how long until Meg hands in her resignation? I predict it won't be long.
Meg Whitman has really accomplished a lot at eBay, and 10 years is a long time as CEO of anything. Surely she must be experiencing the itch to get out and change something at a more nimble organization; or, on the other hand, move "up" in the world to a company whose market cap is even bigger than that of her own company.

Meg is a packaged goods girl; she cut her teeth at companies like Proctor & Gamble, Walt Disney, FTD. Maybe she'd like to go back to a company that makes things instead of shaving bits off of millions upon millions of tiny transactions. Or maybe, retire to academic life; she's very committed to Princeton University, her alma mater (she's given many millions to the school), and her sons are about college-aged. She's hardly been able to spend a lot of quality time with them as she climbed the corporate ladder during their childhood. Maybe it's time for a change?

Average CEO tenure is about 9.8 years, and I can't help but looking at Meg's accomplishments and thinking, isn't her time about up? If I was a betting woman, I'd be calling my bookie laying odds that eBay would have a new CEO by 2008.

How about you?

[Dislaimer: I own a few shares of eBay and hope that Meg lives forever, just like Warren Buffett. You can read more about me here.]

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