Google me this Batman: Do you feel lucky?

Google (GOOG) is a great company and seems to have a great future. Google stock has had a great ride, although a turbulent one. I do not own any shares and have been following it since before the IPO. Of course I wish I would have bought some when it initially went public but alas, buying it then seemed like wild speculation and not investing. What did I know for sure. Not much. What do I know for sure now. Not much more. At this point in time Google seems more like a riddle than an investment to me.

There is little certainty in new companies when investing for the long haul. This does not mean it is not a good investment at some price but what price? What is the risk reward proposition? Is Google more likely to be a $200 billion company in five years (only seven companies are now, two are banks & three are oil companies) or a $50 billion company like Ebay or Yahoo? I think the latter has the far greater possibility. With a trailing P/E of 66, tripling its earnings would bring the P/E to 22, still higher than the market average. This is definately a riddle I have no answer to, but on a risk/reward basis, I think I'll just watch others hope and pray and dream while I will be looking for investments.

I know Google is profitable, and that enough people are convinced it will be even more so. If the stock sank to $250 analysts would explain it to us. If it flew to $500 analysts would explain it to us.