Starbucks has been a Wall Street darling for years as it proves it is able to expand (not just in the coffee business, but in everything from ice cream to movie promotion), while maintaining a remarkably strong brand. Starbucks still manages to stand for the finer things in life while it threatens to outpace McDonald's in number of storefronts.
Business-wise there's really nothing to complain about. But stock-wise, investors started to get nervous just this month. It seems things are going a little too well when it comes to the stock price.
The problem, in a word, is valuation. The stock reached $40 a share in early May. The Wall Street Journal ran a "Heard on the Street" that timed things just about right. The column said Starbucks was getting risky since it had a multiple higher than any large-cap stock of comparable size. It quoted money managers worrying that if the company so much as hiccuped executing its ambitious strategy, the stock could be hit very hard.
That's right about when the market hit a rough patch and Starbucks shares started to fall -- faster and harder than most large-cap stocks. SBUX is now at $35. It's getting cheaper, but we still show the p-e as 51, which is darn high for a company growing 20% a year. On May 22, Smith Barney started coverage with a hold rating due to valuation. The price target is $40.
Sure, Starbucks still has its fans. Jim Cramer has been bullish lately on his show "Mad Money," and UBS Securities recently upgraded the stock from neutral to buy, raising its price target from $43 to $44.
The stock may not be priced for perfection anymore. But its still close enough to keep many investors on the sidelines.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-27-2006 @ 3:12AM
mike coan said...
are you full of crap. what is the P/E of Google? Got to a place like Bangkok where there is more competition for Starbucks to deal with than in the US and see where the people are going to drink coffee, and i mean the locals as well as the tourists and ex-pats. IT IS STARBUCKS!!! Paris, it is open later than the local owned coffee places that still think no one drinks coffee after 6pm. Germany, it is the only coffee house with decaf. In the UK it is where the women go with the kids for coffee in the afternoon. In Taiwan it is filled with locals all day. Only an idiot would think Starbucks is anywhere near the end of it's run. It is doing what other places of its kind are not, giving a clean, fresh, customer aware place for people to go for coffee. If you want to short a stock and start panic selling then be honest about it.
5-27-2006 @ 1:30PM
Me said...
Jim Cramer is right.
Starbucks executives have previously set a goal to open 30 000 stores in total, and recently, they have been quoted as saying that they most likely have underestimated that figure. Since the company right now has ROUGHLY 15 000 stores, that puts starbucks JUST half way through its major growth phase. That fact, together with the superior fundimentals the company has shown for the past 10 years, is the reason behind the high valuation. Investors ultimately know that the company is set to make a lot more money in the future, so its no mystery why the valuation is high. People who are selling out now will be sorry in two years time, and those who are trying to short will lose a LOT of money.
5-27-2006 @ 8:18PM
Gary said...
From a consumer only standpoint I find I don't miss Starbucks at all. I recently moved from an over-saturated market for coffee houses (northern Va) to a location in South Carolina where there are no Starbucks for 60 miles. Guess what - McDonalds' coffee seems just fine and for a lot less $.
5-28-2006 @ 8:25AM
a rothenberg said...
Starbucks in a word is a brand and without a close competitor. It is replacing Coke and Pepsi among younger consumers 12-24 as a place to hangout. It's a business meeting location everyday for millions of people. And, it seems to have no problem selling $3 coffee beverages. It has continuity, cleanliness, and style. And it has a addictive product. Ithas all the right ingredients for more success. Lastly, it hasn't reached small town America. The current analyst views are just B.S.
5-28-2006 @ 10:00AM
Peter T said...
Sure the stock is ahead on its valuation, but it always will be. Starbucks is one of those rare companies that causes more or less permanent change in people's routines or behavior. For nearly everyone, visiting a Starbucks is a pleasant experience and an anchor in a busy work day or for that matter,just a busy day.
As stated time and again, there is NO known competition for this brand. On a personal note, I actually prefer Peets coffee. But I find myself being drawn to Starbucks again and again for the entire pleasant experience.For me and countless others that is a very powerful force.
All that remains is the move for expansion into other markets-say China. And even if Starbucks "stumbles" do you really think that its installed base of millions of coffee drinkers are going to stop their daily visits? No way. So in the end it does have an unusually high valuation. HOWEVER, it also has an unusual market position-no real competition, even on the distant horizon.
The reference to Google was appropriate. Its PE is 67 and it does have some competition.Yet when most people do a search, they inevitably end up going to that site. What a position!
So when it comes to Starbucks, can you think of any stock in any field that occupies that position? Ultimately, what is that worth in a valuation formula?
5-29-2006 @ 12:54PM
Randy Comment said...
Starbucks is not a franchise but a corporately run group of stores. Take heed corporate heads. I have developed a concern for the quality of employees at several of the shops in CA. The problems run the gamut from serving cold coffee to long waits, to incorrect change, to messy conditions. This is a bad sign that a breakdown is in progress
5-29-2006 @ 10:53PM
Malana said...
Starbucks (SBUX) and Google (GOOG) are two compoanies that everyone should own a piece of. True, their meteoric days may be past, but they are solidly entrenched in niches that aren't likely to be meaningfully challenged soon.....and I'm sorry, but that McDonalds coffee is vastly overrated!
5-29-2006 @ 11:04PM
David Van Dorn said...
Starbucks is a "fad" that's about to end, (remember Krispy Kreme Doughnuts),lol. A $3 to $4 cup of coffee is a luxury item most working Americans can live without. Let me think a minute....should I go to Starbucks everyday, or should I use that money to fill my gas tank....I'll buy the gas and make my coffee at home.
5-30-2006 @ 1:06AM
PRISCILLA NEWTON said...
WHILE I ENJOY STARBUCKS COFFEE AND OTHER ITEMS,I HAVE STOPPED GOING. MY REASON IS SERVICE. ON MY LAST TWO TAKE-OUTS, MY TOASTED BAGEL WAS LOOSE IN THE BAG WITH MY CREAM CHEESE CONTAINER FALLING AROUND OVER THE BAGEL. NOT ONLY DID IT COOL TOO QUICKLY, I FELT IT WAS NOT CLEAN. GIVE ME SERVICE IF YOU WANT TOP DOLLAR. PRIS GREENVILLE, NC
5-30-2006 @ 1:40AM
skip Kotkins said...
Please PLEASE believe what you are saying and short the stock. Ever since SBUX went public in the early 1990's, it has been one of the most heavily shorted stocks. And those of us who bought and hold are just delighted to see the price go up as the shorts have to pay through the nose to cover their positions. I love it when people short SBUX because it just makes that much more money for those of us who laugh at the skeptics and hold our shares.