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Why Wall Street's worrying about Starbucks

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Starbucks has been a Wall Street darling for years as it proves it is able to expand (not just in the coffee business, but in everything from ice cream to movie promotion), while  maintaining a remarkably strong brand. Starbucks still manages to stand for the finer things in life while it threatens to outpace McDonald's in number of storefronts.

Business-wise there's really nothing to complain about. But stock-wise, investors started to get nervous just this month. It seems things are going a little too well when it comes to the stock price.

The problem, in a word, is valuation. The stock reached $40 a share in early May. The Wall Street Journal ran a "Heard on the Street" that timed things just about right. The column said Starbucks was getting risky since it had a multiple higher than any large-cap stock of comparable size. It quoted money managers worrying that if the company so much as hiccuped executing its ambitious strategy, the stock could be hit very hard.

That's right about when the market hit a rough patch and Starbucks shares started to fall -- faster and harder than most large-cap stocks. SBUX is now at $35. It's getting cheaper, but we still show the p-e as 51, which is darn high for a company growing 20% a year. On May 22, Smith Barney started coverage with a hold rating due to valuation. The price target is $40.

Sure, Starbucks still has its fans. Jim Cramer has been bullish lately on his show "Mad Money," and UBS Securities recently upgraded the stock from neutral to buy, raising its price target from $43 to $44.

The stock may not be priced for perfection anymore. But its still close enough to keep many investors on the sidelines.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-14.2810,318.16
NASDAQ-10.782,146.04
S&P 500-3.521,091.38

Last updated: November 23, 2009: 07:45 AM

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