Every morning I wake up bright and early and write a couple of posts about what is going to drive the market. Then I watch the news all day and find out whether or not any of the things I mentioned had any impact. Most of the time they do. But today I was surprised to glance over at my TV, tuned to CNBC, and see Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaking. His schedule at an international monetary conference in Washington wasn't even on my radar screen.
Then I held onto my seat, as did every trader on Wall Street. Would his words mean it was time to buy or sell? (It had to be one or the other.)
Sell, apparently, was the unanimous decision of investors. The Dow Jones industrial average ended the day down a punishing 199 points to 11,049. (Don't tell me we're going to cross back over the dreaded Dow 11,000 mark -- again!)
So why did stocks tank on hearing Bernanke's words -- a simple argument that inflation is still a concern even though the economy is starting to slow. That's not big news, guys, is it?
Ostensibly the sell-off is because Bernanke sounded much more likely to raise rates at the Fed's June 28-29th meeting than expected. But I think a few other factors are at work here.
First, I think investors freaked at signs of waffling on Bernanke's part. He was the one who got everyone excited earlier in the year that the Fed might "pause" in its series of rate hikes. Even more than fearing another rate hike, investors fear a Fed chief that won't give them clear signals of what he planned to do next (Greenspan was so helpful that way). One guy on CNBC just talked about how surprised he is to hear Bernanke be so hawkish on rates.
Second, investors really don't think the Fed needs to raise rates any more. Consumer spending, which makes up two-thirds of economic activity in this country, is already slowing, in good part due to the rise in rates (higher oil hasn't helped either). Bernanke talked today about businesses picking up the spending. Maybe so, but it won't be enough to make up for a faltering consumer. So now they have to worry that, not only could Bernanke be a waffler, but he might be wrong to boot.
Stephen Gallagher of Society General just said on CNBC, "I still think we won't see a rate hike in June, but I'm a little more nervous that I could be wrong."
In a Street.com story, Barry Hyman, a strategist with EKN Financial and someone whose opinion I really respect, said Bernanke's words of rising inflation and a slowing economy brought to mind the dreaded spectre of Stagflation -- "a death sentence for equities." He thinks the market will continue to slide on such news.
That's a hard call to make -- as someone who writes a morning stock preview each day knows well. But what I can say for sure is it is going to be a long two-and-a-half weeks until we finally see what the Fed does at its next meeting. Hold onto your seats.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
6-05-2006 @ 5:44PM
josette mohler said...
Why were we cursed to get Bernanke as a fed chief? And we are stuck with his incompetence, ignorance, arrogance for a long time to come. It is time to invest our money outside of the United States. The man thinks he is God... he is obviously suffering from a Napoleonic complex, another ivory tower dreamer who cannot face up to the realities of today's world. Can the Fed chairman be impeached? he is confirmed by the Senate. Can't the Senate impeach him before he destroys the whole Market? every time he opens his mouth the Market turns sour.
6-05-2006 @ 5:48PM
George A. Petersen said...
I believe Mr. Bernanke is very dramatic, this is the second time which he doomed the market. I wonder if he has an idea of what his work is all about it. GAP
6-05-2006 @ 5:58PM
Peter J Kuehn said...
Maybe I'm stupid but I do believe the housing industry is the base for many industries and companies. When is Bernanke going to get it straight. He has totally ruined the housing industry which in turn has zapped the markets. How can we get rid of this IDIOT.
6-05-2006 @ 6:07PM
Jeb Ladouceur said...
I wasn't surprised so much by what Bernanke said, as the way he said it. The Chairman sounded very nervous and unsure of himself. We can't all be accomplished orators, of course (look at Tony Snow), but for a man in Bernanke's position to come off like an adolescent who's afraid he'll forget his lines ... well, it isn't very reassuring, is it?
6-05-2006 @ 6:19PM
Ava Tunney said...
This Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has some news but the market reacted as it has in the past with a large loss for that day. One thing about Wall Street is that it never changes. What will drive the market? More high tech!!! Think that over on the June 28-29th news.
6-05-2006 @ 6:37PM
William Binford said...
Don't just vent at the idiot here, write the Federal Reserve, your Senator and the President. This man is going to throw the economy into a recession. HE'S DANGEROUS!
6-05-2006 @ 6:58PM
Bob Torp said...
What we have here is another incompetent Bush appointee. Between Bernanke and rising oil prices (another Bush blunder) I beleive we are likely headed for a recession and the resulting market downturn. This is reminecent of the late 70's when the Fed over reacted and we were stuck inflation due to high oil prices and astronomical interest rates and a recession.
6-05-2006 @ 6:59PM
Josh Duyal said...
What inflation? They are selling TV sets out there for $49.99 and Americans are making less and less while productively working 50Hrs/week on the average.
Fuel expensive? Hey, isn't 30% of it simply due to the dollar's goverment-allowed loss of it's value over the past 15 years? Mr.Chairman, wake up please!
6-05-2006 @ 7:51PM
L. meyers said...
The market losses Bernanke has caused by his ambiguous comments since taking control will make the loss resulting from the Enron debacle look like peanuts. Where is the accountability?
6-05-2006 @ 8:21PM
Brian said...
Should we be surprised at Dr. Bernanke's remarks? He's been sending signals he was ready to increase rates since he took the Fed Chief's job. Why CNBC and so many so-called "analysts" thought he would be finished rasing rates after May signifies how out of touch these manipulators of the stock market are, or how gullible they thought investors would be.
If you think Dr. Bernanke is unfit for his job ,you can thank the guy who appointed him to it.
6-05-2006 @ 8:45PM
Thomas Fess said...
Just like all the incompentent clowns in WASHINGTON!The country has a real CLOWN SCHOOL BOOZO running the FED!! Just another example of BUSH!! This man has to GO!!
6-05-2006 @ 8:46PM
Stanley Rojowski said...
Of course prices are going to increase(inflation) with gas as high as it is. I don't see a reason to raise interest rates because of it. Treat the disease not the symptons. Let's try letting the economy run its course for once.
6-05-2006 @ 9:22PM
Rick said...
Do you think Ben really can pull the lever and turn the handles to engineer a soft landing? The problems with the economy and debt are so much larger than Ben. He will just get the blame when the house of cards come tumbling down. Buy some gold!
6-06-2006 @ 12:52AM
Andy said...
I agreed with all of you. Mr. Bernanke needs to keep his big mouth shut. This is the dumbest actions I have ever seen from the FED. All I can say is " Mr. Bernanke, you screwed up! shame on you"
6-06-2006 @ 2:33AM
steve s said...
this guy is bad, real bad. i have yet to see or hear anything good about this fed chief. i don't think bush appointed him, this guy has to work for osama bin laden. he has single handily wrecked our economy. what is worst, bush will have the nerve to say what a good job he is doing.(aka donald rumsfeld) osama must be laughing himself silly right abou now.
6-06-2006 @ 4:59AM
Richard Keller said...
Perhaps the best solution is to re-position our holdings to better withstand the waves to come. The Fed Chairman still has not figured out his job: Does he fight inflation -- a losing battle -- or preserve the economy and thereby people's jobs. If, in his view, inflation were the only enemy, then we need to hang on tightly, because our deficit spending will sink us long before the devaluation of the paper we hold in our wallets.
6-06-2006 @ 7:21AM
paul champion said...
My 4 year old beagle gave me a sell signal 6 months ago and he can't read or write which makes him a solid source of info...Seriously all of a sudden it dawns on these morons on Wall St. that nobody is going to the mall or to Circuit City because they have to take out a home equity loan just to put gas in the car.... When you are forced to shell out 15-20 cents per mile to drive I think those leisurely drives around town are now put on hold don't you think? Also has anyone been paying attention to T-Bill rates? They have tripled in 18 months....HELLO!!
Profits bulked up thru productivity gains have hit a dead end....you can't cut anymore people since they aint there to be cut
Far and Away the most important factor folks is that the psychology of the market has changed to negative...Its no longer looking for undervalued stocks i.e. on the buy side... its more like unloading overvalued stocks i.e. sell and there are a bunch
Bambi's Mother said it best there is something evil in the forest........
6-06-2006 @ 12:33PM
mallory walden said...
You think Mr. Bernanke would have known before he took this job that the whole world watches as to what you say. You have to present yourself like you have a clue what you are doing. There has not been enough economic evidence to show we are moving into a recession or the inflation is upon us. There has been enough evidence to show the economy is due a break when it comes to interest rates. Did you not think that the economy would begin to slow some due to the raising of interest rates. Why should you be surprised? Don't be surprised Mr. Bernanke, when you say you think there may be a fire in the building everybody starts running toward the door.
6-06-2006 @ 4:40PM
Kevin Leo said...
Bernanke is actually saving the US from itself! With Congress printing money to the tune of Billions everyday for entitlement programs, pork, earmarks, Iraq, Afghanistan, Katrina, Israel, Egypt, the UN, etc., while also helping to boost job growth with lower taxes (a good thing), while growth industries have been outsourced to China & India (bad thing if you're in a union), while commodities speculation runs amok due to OIL madmen from Nigeria, Venezuela and Iran---Bernanke MUST pull back on excess liquidity which refuses to heel any time soon!
6-06-2006 @ 5:10PM
Bob said...
All of your comments are quite accurate pertaining to Mr Bernanke especially when one considers his lack of onfidence in his understanding of the impact he puts forth.But what can you expect from someone appointed by Bush and his display of intelligence. Why would Bernanke make the comments on Monday as he did, given what came out of Iran over the weekend