Sirius closing gap with XM

Do you believe that Sirius is a good investment? If so, any ideas what the hold period would be to make a nice return?? It seems like cable TV in the very early stages...

I invested in Sirius in 2003 with the understanding that it would take 5 years to make me $$$$. I am not selling until 2008. By then the auto makers will decide that it should be standard in all vehicles just like CD players are now. I like sat. radio and cannot imagine driving without it. That make me believe that it will be part of our society very soon. Change takes time, but when it happens it will happen big. The media seems very cool to the idea of Howard Stern being bigger than he already is. I am shocked that we have added 4 million subs in under 2 years and wall street has not endorsed this type of growth. Maybe there are big pockets running the show.

I've been buying Sirius for about a year now. The price is as low as it's going to get (+/- $.50) -- it can only go higher. I would consider holding onto it for longer term rather than shorter, though...

I started buying sirius in 2003 and have been buying and selling continuously, making a substantial profit on each sale. I have kept buying the stock and I now still own quite a few shares. I feel this stock is going to be a big winner in the near future. I can confidently foresee it going to $10.00 a share.

As the above writer has commented Sirius is a long term investemnt. We are on the ground floor of this emerging entertainment path. One of the biggest obstacles to this stock and to this company is not the technology or the management, which is extremly sound, tried and true. The obstacle is the public unawareness of what a great product this is, and how readily available it is to them. As they understand and knowledge of the product grows the "sliced bread" cliche will begin to be used more and more. Just be happy we are already in with this stock prior to the country discovering it, this is WMT stock back in the 70's.

I've been buying Sirius for a year now on a regular basis. I bought at $7.50 all the way down to $3.60 and will keep buying. In 3 years when this stock is trading for $14, we'll all be happy we did it. Right now I'm feeling some short term pain, but I definately am going to keep buying with every spare penny I have until this company turns a profit. Then I will hold the stock until I don't love my Sirius radio anymore. So say what you will about this stock, I'm hoping it drops even lower so I can keep picking up more shares. What I can't understand is why they don't have google ads on Sirius.com. Once they start rolling out alternative forms of cash flow, this company will really take off. Buy now while you can still get it for cheap. XM is a dead horse, if you are planning on any kind of long term investing, Sirius is the spot to be. Just ask any kid you see on the street which one they'd buy, cuz in 3-4 years, they'll be the ones driving this business growth. And they'll say Sirius.

The CEOs name is Hugh Panero not Joel Panero.

Regular radio is dying and will soon be dead. From the ashes of this commercial-laden crapfest (pandering 30 bands with a 40 song rotation) will arise the satelite industry, in particular Sirius. It caters to every niche category possible. Do you like indie-goth-southern-krunk music ? ? ? Well there is a station for you. Stand-up comedy is alive and well due to raw dog, laugh break, and blue collar channel. Talk radio___forget about it___from discovery channel to Howard Stern to MSNBC it is there and entertaining. Sirius is going to blow up like Challenger ! All aboard the money train, Whoop-Whoop!

Did anyone bother to look at the two companies, or did everyone just jump onboard with Sirius because of Stern or other reasons unknown?

1. XM already has exclusives with Toyota, Nissan, GM, Honda, Hyundai and others -- for a total of well over half. Sirius is effectively locked out of over half the OEM factory installs.

2. XM is a couple years ahead with its technology, meaning it is doing stuff today that Sirius is not even close on.

3. XM still has a substantial subscriber lead over Sirius, and while Sirius has had a nice pop from Sterns move, there is no indication that will persist. Sirius has a big advantage in its smaller subscriber base in that fewer are lost to churn each month; but the closer they get to "catching" XM the harder it is going to be to maintain their growth rate.

4. Sirius has wrecked its content costs going forward with the Stern deal. XM has been much more cautious with its wild spending, yet they've been able to maintain a stronger presence in most content areas. XM's opie/anthony are becoming much more well known as a result of their syndication deals. XM is just being smarter.

Why has XM been killed in the market? Meritless lawsuits, weak, weak marketing, and the perception that Stern will put XM out of business -- all are utter nonsense.

XM has done a poor job of promoting the service. But they have just hired new marketing people (a brand development specialist from Intel and a consumer electronics person from Nextel) with a new top marketing person due to be named shortly.

It is ridiculous to think that this current situation is going to persist. It isn't.

I bough Sirius when it was around $2.00 and even though the stock has come down significantly during the past year, I will continue to buy even more. Given what we have seen so far, it is a matter of time before Sirius buys XM and the stock is going to take off given that there will only be one major player!

I have bought and sold SIRI a number of times, also making some money off of it. I am considering a buy right now. A few things that I always keep in mind:

1) (Nutral) Neither company (SIRI or XMSR) is profitable right now. Both are looking at profitability around the end of 2007.

2) (Negative) SIRI has the larger market cap, but thats only because it has issued a LOT more stock. That depreciates the value of each share.

3) (Negative) XMSR has reported slow sales this quarter and have downgraded their guidance for the quarter. Is this problem only related to XMSR or does SIRI have the same problems and just not advertising it? Perhaps they are just waiting until they report earnings to drop their guidance for next quarter.

4) (Positive) XM is embattled in multiple lawsuits right now. This = bad for XM. However, SIRI had already taken care of every issue that XM is in trouble for.

5) (Positive) XM is saying that their lawsuit with the music industry should be thrown out of court because of previous legislation. If it is thrown out, this is money that SIRI can save by voiding their contract with the music industry.

I agree with most that SIRI is a long term hold. There is just too much upside and marketshare available to not like them.

XM is done for, the clock is ticking on "Joel Panero" and Gary Parsons. They lost their lead, squandered the opportunities, and fouled up to the point of limited return.

Sirius will buy XM soon.

You might want to think hard about investing in Sirius. Do you know how long it's going to take for them to make back the $500 million they paid for Stern? It sounds like a good long term investment but you have to wonder how long they are going to be in business making poor decisions like that. Even Stern is complaining about not having as many new subscribers as was promised when they signed him.

I have both Sirus and XM stocks, now is a good time to buy all the Sirus you can afford. I don't see XM as the leader anymore, all my friends now own Sirus radio after seeing mine. It will only get better and we can all laugh cashing our checks at the bank

If Mel K is unable to buy or merge with XM it will be a slow grind to the end for Siri to be able to overcome XM but they will eventually.

Xm's OEM deals just don't matter when people want Sirius programing. With retail now going Sirius almost 7 out of 10, XM is done and all due to incompetent top managment. They only have a slight lead in OEM and that lead is fading.

This is nearing a 1.5 billion industry and it's only in the infant stages. XM could survive if it was earlier on their cash curve, but with customers fleeing, satellites ( XM1 and XM 2 ) failing, and lesser programing, I'm afraid they are done.

The real question is does Mel NEED to buy XM or can he take their share/business without spending a dollar?

I think he could, but I would go for the merger if I were betting, or if I were Mel.