Barbarians storming HCA -- Should you buy the stock?

Once upon a time, back in the late 1980s, management of RJR decided to buyout the company. It did not take long until other buyers came to the table – as the stock price soared. The deal eventually turned into history's biggest leverage buyout (LBO). The drama became a best-selling book, Barbarians at the Gate, as well as an HBO movie.

Could the same story be developing at HCA, which recently decided to an LBO? Well, according to a Wall Street Journal story, it appears that the Blackstone Group, which is a top private equity firm, is in the early stages of making a bid.

It would not be cheap. After all, it will need to top the existing offer of $21.3 billion. Even in the universe of master dealmakers, this is still a lot of dough.

Does this mean investors should buy HCA stock? Not really. Blackstone still needs to arrange financing, as well as bring other private equity firms to the table.

Besides, Wall Street pros are skeptical that a bidding war will break out, as the stock price is below the existing $51 offer.

I'm always leery to say "this time is different." But those who are running mega private equity firms are seasoned (such as Henry Kravis of KKR). Some still remember the excesses of the late 1980s and do not want to repeat them.

It's certainly good news for private equity firms, which are likely to get good deals on companies. But, as for public shareholders, they probably will not get nice premiums on these deals.