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The IPO Situation

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IPOs can be a very useful way to evaluate the stock market's value. When there is a large volume of IPOs, historically it is a sign that companies are very comfortable with their industry, potential and the stock market.

When I was a beginner with stocks, I really had no idea what an IPO was. When I did figure out what they were, I had no idea where I could research them! But, while reading Jason Zweig's commentary on The Intelligent Investor, he mentioned Jay Ritter's web site as an excellent place to keep up-to-date on the latest IPO happenings.

What is the IPO world like currently? According to this report:

   

Year

Number

of IPOs

Aggregate Proceeds

1990

104

$4.08 billion

1991

273

$12.28 billion

1992

385

$20.97 billion

1993

483

$28.16 billion

1994

387

$16.24 billion

1995

432

$24.46 billion

1996

621

$40.65 billion

1997

432

$28.97 billion

1998

267

$32.20 billion

1999

457

$62.69 billion

2000

346

$60.54 billion

2001

76

$33.97 billion

2002

67

$22.11 billion

2003

62

$9.58 billion

2004

179

$32.04 billion

2005

162

$28.37 billion

1990-2005

4,733

$457.3 billion

 
 
What I find interesting is the rising percentage of tech companies in those IPOs:

Year

Number

of IPOs

Percentage Tech Stocks

Percentage of

IPOs with EPS<0

1980

70

31%

25%

1981

191

37%

17%

1982

77

52%

20%

1983

442

39%

21%

1984

172

28%

16%

1985

179

19%

15%

1986

378

20%

21%

1987

271

21%

18%

1988

97

27%

18%

1989

105

30%

22%

1990

104

26%

13%

1991

273

24%

24%

1992

385

25%

30%

1993

483

23%

28%

1994

387

27%

24%

1995

432

43%

29%

1996

621

38%

40%

1997

432

34%

34%

1998

267

39%

50%

1999

457

77%

77%

2000

346

67%

80%

2001

76

29%

50%

2002

67

30%

46%

2003

63

27%

45%

2004

178

33%

49%

2005

162

28%

44%

1980-1989

1,982

29%

19%

1990-1994

1,632

25%

26%

1995-1998

1,752

38%

36%

1999-2000

803

73%

79%

2001-2005

546

29%

47%

1980-2005

6,715

36%

34%

Not too surprisingly, there have been quite a few IPOs in the emerging markets and ethanol industry. Ethanol, in my opinion, is way too overrated. Many people know that there is no way we can meet estimates in a few years with corn ethanol (For those of you that haven't been looking into this, see this article). But, the hype is still raising the demand, and as a result companies need extra money for financing and to up production.

While this isn't necessarily a bad thing, I think the hype has gone a little far and there is way too much confidence in this industry. It reminds me of a smaller tech rush, where everyone was extremely confident in the stock market and tech stocks. The hype only lasted for so long. The only difference I see with ethanol is that it has some government backing and support, which might make all the difference.

Emerging markets have also had a good amount of IPOs coming in, for an obvious reason: Opportunity. A recent one is an Indian outsourcing firm, WNS ltd. But, there are very few Indian ADRs already, so this isn't as big of a deal as, for example, China. This article from 2004 explains the excitement that was involved with China back then. To show you the larger amount of excitement around Chinese ADRs: In 2005 eleven ADR IPOs were filed, and out of those eleven companies, eight were Chinese.

IPOs can be a useful way to see the publics excitement on an industry and company, and thanks to Jay Ritter it is much easier to find IPO data. One more interesting article on this year's IPO world:

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-223.328,280.74
NASDAQ-49.201,796.52
S&P 500-26.91896.42

Last updated: July 05, 2009: 04:10 PM

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