IPOs can be a very useful way to evaluate the stock market's value. When there is a large volume of IPOs, historically it is a sign that companies are very comfortable with their industry, potential and the stock market.
When I was a beginner with stocks, I really had no idea what an IPO was. When I did figure out what they were, I had no idea where I could research them! But, while reading Jason Zweig's commentary on The Intelligent Investor, he mentioned Jay Ritter's web site as an excellent place to keep up-to-date on the latest IPO happenings.
What is the IPO world like currently? According to this report:
|
Year |
Number of IPOs |
Aggregate Proceeds |
|
1990 |
104 |
$4.08 billion |
|
1991 |
273 |
$12.28 billion |
|
1992 |
385 |
$20.97 billion |
|
1993 |
483 |
$28.16 billion |
|
1994 |
387 |
$16.24 billion |
|
1995 |
432 |
$24.46 billion |
|
1996 |
621 |
$40.65 billion |
|
1997 |
432 |
$28.97 billion |
|
1998 |
267 |
$32.20 billion |
|
1999 |
457 |
$62.69 billion |
|
2000 |
346 |
$60.54 billion |
|
2001 |
76 |
$33.97 billion |
|
2002 |
67 |
$22.11 billion |
|
2003 |
62 |
$9.58 billion |
|
2004 |
179 |
$32.04 billion |
|
2005 |
162 |
$28.37 billion |
|
1990-2005 |
4,733 |
$457.3 billion |
What I find interesting is the rising percentage of tech companies in those IPOs:
|
Year |
Number of IPOs |
Percentage Tech Stocks |
Percentage of IPOs with EPS<0 |
|
1980 |
70 |
31% |
25% |
|
1981 |
191 |
37% |
17% |
|
1982 |
77 |
52% |
20% |
|
1983 |
442 |
39% |
21% |
|
1984 |
172 |
28% |
16% |
|
1985 |
179 |
19% |
15% |
|
1986 |
378 |
20% |
21% |
|
1987 |
271 |
21% |
18% |
|
1988 |
97 |
27% |
18% |
|
1989 |
105 |
30% |
22% |
|
1990 |
104 |
26% |
13% |
|
1991 |
273 |
24% |
24% |
|
1992 |
385 |
25% |
30% |
|
1993 |
483 |
23% |
28% |
|
1994 |
387 |
27% |
24% |
|
1995 |
432 |
43% |
29% |
|
1996 |
621 |
38% |
40% |
|
1997 |
432 |
34% |
34% |
|
1998 |
267 |
39% |
50% |
|
1999 |
457 |
77% |
77% |
|
2000 |
346 |
67% |
80% |
|
2001 |
76 |
29% |
50% |
|
2002 |
67 |
30% |
46% |
|
2003 |
63 |
27% |
45% |
|
2004 |
178 |
33% |
49% |
|
2005 |
162 |
28% |
44% |
|
1980-1989 |
1,982 |
29% |
19% |
|
1990-1994 |
1,632 |
25% |
26% |
|
1995-1998 |
1,752 |
38% |
36% |
|
1999-2000 |
803 |
73% |
79% |
|
2001-2005 |
546 |
29% |
47% |
|
1980-2005 |
6,715 |
36% |
34% |
Not too surprisingly, there have been quite a few IPOs in the emerging markets and ethanol industry. Ethanol, in my opinion, is way too overrated. Many people know that there is no way we can meet estimates in a few years with corn ethanol (For those of you that haven't been looking into this, see this article). But, the hype is still raising the demand, and as a result companies need extra money for financing and to up production.
While this isn't necessarily a bad thing, I think the hype has gone a little far and there is way too much confidence in this industry. It reminds me of a smaller tech rush, where everyone was extremely confident in the stock market and tech stocks. The hype only lasted for so long. The only difference I see with ethanol is that it has some government backing and support, which might make all the difference.
Emerging markets have also had a good amount of IPOs coming in, for an obvious reason: Opportunity. A recent one is an Indian outsourcing firm, WNS ltd. But, there are very few Indian ADRs already, so this isn't as big of a deal as, for example, China. This article from 2004 explains the excitement that was involved with China back then. To show you the larger amount of excitement around Chinese ADRs: In 2005 eleven ADR IPOs were filed, and out of those eleven companies, eight were Chinese.
IPOs can be a useful way to see the publics excitement on an industry and company, and thanks to Jay Ritter it is much easier to find IPO data. One more interesting article on this year's IPO world:










