I see the following factors as possibly leading to a price drop of the S&P 500:

• A) The tension in the Middle East has put a lot of pressure on the stock market because of volatile oil prices, which in turn makes a volatile, inconsistent stock market performance. Oil prices will stabilize if the Fed legalizes offshore drilling, and it would benefit many companies, such as Chevron and ExxonMobil, who have been putting a good amount of their revenue into research and development. But until that point comes, we should expect the stock market to be quite volatile because of the price of oil.
• B) There is a lot of stock option and compensation trouble going on with corporations right now. This isn't necessarily bad for the S&P 500, but if anything major comes about with it, the stock market will react. It has gone to the point where the SEC has actually issued some new rulings with executive compensation disclosure (Which I think is a great choice. If managers aren't honest with shareholders, it should be thought of as fraud).
• C) The IPO amount has started to rise again, which means that company confidence is once again on the rise. It isn't anywhere near the level of the late 20th century, but the amount has nearly tripled since 2003. Because the S&P 500 is at a rich multiple right now, I see this as a sign companies are feeling comfortable, even without considering the current stock market condition. It isn't anything to be majorly worried about yet, but something to keep an eye on to make sure it doesn't get to a high, illogical number.
• D) Rising interest rates are making corporate earnings less valuable, and as a result it will be harder for corporations to meet estimates and expectations, which will result in depressed share prices. Since the S&P 500 is made up of 500 companies, it will be greatly affected by high interest rates, if they stay at this level for a much longer period. Interest rates will eat away at a company's income, so I see it as something to be quite concerned about if interest rates stay at this high level. Because it eats away at money and analysts are now so short-term minded, they would make a big deal if they saw a lot of corporations missing financial estimates. This will also make it much harder for corporations to increase earnings, which is something the S&P 500 will desperately need to avoid a large drop in share price.

Time will tell what will happen, but the above factors make me believe that most likely will not see any exceptional S&P 500 price performance, but then again, no one knows what the next 5+ years will bring. Maybe we will see a large increase in corporate earnings sometime soon, but with the current situations we are facing today, I find it hard to say that that will be likely.