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Analysts: should we ignore them?

hansen's sodaWe've all noticed the extreme dissatisfaction the market has had with earnings releases over the past few months, mainly because of analyst expectations. I'm not saying analysts are expecting too much, but I do believe that the market has been over-reacting a great amount on expectations, guidance, and current results.

It has gotten to the point where, if a company doesn't meet all analyst goals and guidance, its stock gets knocked down 15%. I'm not complaining about this -- who doesn't mind getting a great company at a discount value? I certainly don't. But it is worth understanding why it is happening now, and why it wasn't 50, or even 15 years ago.

I don't have an exact answer, but I do know of some reasons behind this. Fifty years ago, $100 was considered a very low commission to make a trade in the stock market. The heavy volume that we now see today from day traders, who can make a trade for pennies, could not exist. There also wasn't the computer, which now enables everyone around the globe to connect and check out the latest stock price. But 50 years ago, the only reasonable, simple way to check out the latest movements in the stock market was by checking the financial section of the newspaper. This practice is almost extinct now, and for good reason. On the Internet you can create a watch list of all the companies you are interested in, making it much easier than sifting through a couple pages of stock quotes in the newspaper. In a way, we are now spoiled.

I believe this is what is creating such an volatile stock market today. Analysts can control the short-term movement, and if there is one mediocre spot in a company's annual report, they will point it out and as a result hundreds of thousands of traders will dump their shares.

A good example is today's movement with Hansen. Hansen reported 2Q earnings before the market opened, with some great numbers: Operating income increased 101.1% to $80.6 million, Net income increased 104.6% to $49.3 million ($0.50 per share), and sales increased 83% to $156 million.

Hansen is one of the fastest growing companies in America, and you must admit that these are very impressive results. Yet why has the stock been down 18%-plus in today's trading? Hang onto your seat: Analysts were expecting sales of $157.3 million, not even 1% more than what Hansen reported. Yet that fraction of a percentage somehow means a lot to people, despite the fact that its energy drink Monster had sales that doubled in the quarter.

This brings me to one more point on the topic of Hansen: Why are people continually worried about Hansen losing market share in the energy drink market? Monster is the fastest growing brand in the energy drink market, taking away market share from Red Bull every quarter. Writers and analysts are ignoring the fact that Hansen has the hottest and fastest-growing brand in the energy drink market, and is announcing rising sales every quarter. In the short-term, you will see many different viewpoints, but in the long-term the facts become straight and is reflected in the value. Right now, the market is focusing too much on short-term results, in my opinion.

Before I conclude, let's just look at a couple more examples: 3M has been knocked down from $84 because of an overestimate of LCD sales and guidance that the analysts aren't happy with. People seem to forget that the long-term success is being ensured, but they feel the short-term results are more important. Starbucks has been hammered because of lower July sales, which is because of longer lines and an over-demand for frozen drinks (is there a better problem to have?) Again, this is a problem that can be fixed in a month, and once it is, Starbucks management will take this into account and focus on the long-term results like they should be, and have been so far. GM has been one of the few companies that has gone up in this market, despite the fact it lost more than $3.5 billion in the quarter. The reason it has risen? Its "optimistic outlook."

Recent market action is a lesson that investing for the long-term can be much more rewarding and you can save yourself the hassle of analysts focusing on one-month sales, short-term results, next-quarter expectations and so on. The trader is freaking out right now, the investor is taking advantage of this opportunity.

David Kretzmann is ninth-grader in Nevada City, CA, and has been writing about and researching stocks and business for nearly a year. He is currently working on a book about stocks. Of the companies mentioned in this post he is invested in Starbucks and Hansen.

Photo courtesy Roman Pinzon-Soto.

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Last updated: December 05, 2008: 03:11 AM

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