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Venice Beach as economic indicator: Consumer spending slows

shoppers crowd venice beachAfter a long walk on the Venice Beach boardwalk (CA) yesterday I may have gotten notice of things to come. Speaking to several artists on the beach, I learned that they are having a tough summer. Business is noticeably slower this summer than last. They speculate that fuel prices and fewer people wanting to fly has reduced tourism and their customer base.

I have no way of knowing if there is a direct correlation but I can report that the boardwalk was packed and parking was hard to find. Based on my observations, it does not seem like a viable explanation. How could the beach be as crowded as ever and business be slower?

The answer is simple, although unscientific: Consumer priorities and discretionary spending have been altered. The number of people visiting the boardwalk may not be appreciably different. People still love the beach, the sites, the sounds and the people-watching. However, after spending more on gas to get there, ($3.15 to $3.45 per gallon) and paying more for parking ($5 if you walk a distance, to $15) they have less in their pockets. They buy hot dogs, pizza, ice cream, beer, and t-shirts. They have less money to spend on art, jewelery, and novelties.

Why Venice Beach as an indicator?

Because it is one of the most integrated places in the world, bar none. These "beach people" range from homeless to multi-millionaires, infants to the very old and almost infirm, crazy to brilliant, white to black and every color in between-- and I mean every color...green, red, blue, every state in the union and every nationality with representatives from all over the world. Even the storefronts are highly integrated. The Phoenix House (rehab) and Sexetera store (daring clothes, DVDs etc.) are separated by the Pacific Jewish Center (modern orthodox), with Tarot Card readers directly in front on the beach side of the walk.

So what is going to happen in the economy if this is any form of leading indicator? Look for slowing same store sales at Starbucks and Whole Foods and more at Costco. Less business at shopping malls and more at outlet centers. Perhaps car sales slow as people extend ownership -- Auto Nation and CarMax with "certified" used cars grow their business and dealerships are flat.

I could not resist asking one of the artists if she ever used eBay or any other Internet site to sell her work. She did not, but she does sell work on her own website, www.artbynonya.com. It is worth noting that almost all of the artists had their own website where their work could be viewed and purchased. So the web prospers in general but continues to decentralize.

It was a great day at the beach. I cannot say the same for the economy if fuel prices continue to rise.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for Design and Research of an Architecture & Planning firm.

[Photo Ville Miettinen]

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Last updated: September 06, 2008: 07:40 PM

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