After a long walk on the Venice Beach boardwalk (CA) yesterday I may have gotten notice of things to come. Speaking to several artists on the beach, I learned that they are having a tough summer. Business is noticeably slower this summer than last. They speculate that fuel prices and fewer people wanting to fly has reduced tourism and their customer base.
I have no way of knowing if there is a direct correlation but I can report that the boardwalk was packed and parking was hard to find. Based on my observations, it does not seem like a viable explanation. How could the beach be as crowded as ever and business be slower?
The answer is simple, although unscientific: Consumer priorities and discretionary spending have been altered. The number of people visiting the boardwalk may not be appreciably different. People still love the beach, the sites, the sounds and the people-watching. However, after spending more on gas to get there, ($3.15 to $3.45 per gallon) and paying more for parking ($5 if you walk a distance, to $15) they have less in their pockets. They buy hot dogs, pizza, ice cream, beer, and t-shirts. They have less money to spend on art, jewelery, and novelties.
Why Venice Beach as an indicator?
Because it is one of the most integrated places in the world, bar none. These "beach people" range from homeless to multi-millionaires, infants to the very old and almost infirm, crazy to brilliant, white to black and every color in between-- and I mean every color...green, red, blue, every state in the union and every nationality with representatives from all over the world. Even the storefronts are highly integrated. The Phoenix House (rehab) and Sexetera store (daring clothes, DVDs etc.) are separated by the Pacific Jewish Center (modern orthodox), with Tarot Card readers directly in front on the beach side of the walk.So what is going to happen in the economy if this is any form of leading indicator? Look for slowing same store sales at Starbucks and Whole Foods and more at Costco. Less business at shopping malls and more at outlet centers. Perhaps car sales slow as people extend ownership -- Auto Nation and CarMax with "certified" used cars grow their business and dealerships are flat.
I could not resist asking one of the artists if she ever used eBay or any other Internet site to sell her work. She did not, but she does sell work on her own website, www.artbynonya.com. It is worth noting that almost all of the artists had their own website where their work could be viewed and purchased. So the web prospers in general but continues to decentralize.
It was a great day at the beach. I cannot say the same for the economy if fuel prices continue to rise.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for Design and Research of an Architecture & Planning firm.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-21-2006 @ 12:39PM
Daniel Tressler said...
Maybe the people just don't like the "art" that is for sale.
The ecconomy may be slowing. I have heard this statement for the last 2 years, but thus far it has not.
Eventually, it will. If for no other reason than the "law of averages". Someone has to be the one to say this when it actually happens!
Interesting, entertaining story, thanks for writing it!
But as far as "NEWS" forget it!
8-21-2006 @ 1:20PM
istudyhistory said...
Been there, and Venice Beach is a fun place no matter who you are. But people probably don't have the money to spend on a luxury like art or jewelry. The artists would be better off selling their wares on ebay, even though there is a fee connected with it. I regularly visit ebay looking for various things and an seldom disappointed. I have bought art from ebay, and china, crystal, jewelry, etc.
Wal Mart is also a good indicator of the economy, and I understand they had a drop in sales last quarter or however they calculate. Now, when the "Poor" stop shopping at Wal Mart--you know something's wrong.
You might want to go to Wal Mart some time and test the economic waters there. No ocean, no sand, but lots and lots of "things."
8-21-2006 @ 2:36PM
FrankM said...
Ominous. Its entertaining to read the believers (read rightists) who try to explain away the facts with suppositions. In my brief experience in blogworld, I've found from the most unbiased, systematic and just view I can muster that left = open-minded and right = close-minded. If this world is changing so much, as heralded by our latest war on terror, how can one live successfully with 250 year old, or worse, two mellinia old idols?
8-21-2006 @ 2:42PM
William Mayo said...
The economy has been in terrible shape ever since 2000. There was the dot.com meltdown, the World Trade Center, a thoroughly lackluster stock market. The only serious money I have made in the market was with gold mining stocks. That should speak volumes about a lack of faith in the future. I sell on eBay and see only four decent months of selling each year - November through February period. The rest of the year our economy is dead slow. Look at the big problems at GM and Ford. It's bad out there, and it's not going to get any better. Also, if Venice Beach is a microcosm of our society, we have sunk to an even lower low than I knew. But that's another issue.
8-21-2006 @ 3:10PM
Economic Blues said...
No matter how you put things, the long-term economic outlook of Americans is not good (bar the 1% at the top). With inflation rising, national debt loads at record numbers, the 300+ Billion spent in Iraq, a serious declining housing market, overall declining U.S. wages (first time in US history), and an older consumer base developing (baby boomers) .... the overall economic stats are not good.
When China is showing a 10% yearly growth rate, compared to the US at 3%, is it any wonder to see that the US is falling behind at an alarming pace. In twenty years or so, most Americans won't be able to recognize their own country.
There was talk in the late 80's that America would become a "bannana republic" and look more like a third world country .... than the America of the 1950's - 1990's.
Hang on the ride is going to get rough for most Americans. Just hope a coming "recession" doesn't ballon into a serious depression in the very near future (2008 - 2012).
George W. Bush has barely created 120,000 to 200,000 jobs per month during his entire administration. This has only added about 10 million new jobs to the economy in the past 6 years. Subtract atleast 5 million manufacturing and service jobs that have been outsourced .... and that gives you only a pitiful 5 million new jobs Bush has created in his entire 6 years.
Also, atleast half of these new jobs are at the minimum wage level, and not really creating any wealth in America.
Contrast this to the 8 Clinton years, where Americans experienced a total of new jobs created at almost 22 million, many at good salary levels.
And you wonder what the American economy will be like in a few short years?
As Ross said, "... that giant sucking sound" ... is now taken as the American economy going down the toilet ... and fast!
8-21-2006 @ 4:02PM
Shifty McNutts said...
An artist will always tell you a sob story to get you to buy something. It would have been more empirical if you had asked the same question every summer rather than relying on artist to tell you how last summer was compared to this.
8-21-2006 @ 4:11PM
sheldon said...
Frank M....I have no idea what your talking about?
WM...Venice not necessarily a microcosm, but extremely diverse so all views are represented among the crowd.
8-21-2006 @ 6:13PM
Economic Blues said...
Venice or not .... what's the difference, everyone knows the US economy is not headed in a good direction right now. The only question is does it go up or down, because it will not continue to stay "flat" like this much longer.
It's obvious to most American's that the U.S. economy sure isn't going to get back to the "roaring 80's or 90's" anytime soon. Any economist worth his reputation will tell you that.
Also, left out of the list abov, in my previous list, is bad U.S. economic indicator stats for the future rising cost of oil, the huge foreign asset investments made in the U.S. in the past few years (just hope foreign investors don't cash in their U.S. investments anytime soon when the U.S. dollar falls), a possible trend to not use the U.S. Dollar as the world standard is also possible in the near future, the possible U.S. (not global) loss of former powerhouse U.S. industries such as the automotive industry.
People today are not as rugged as their 1930's counterparts (The Great Depression era) or as prepared. You can hope for the best all you want but you'd had better be prepared for the worst. Our military being strong is not true either fact its half the size it was during gulf war #1 and our military will not stop overpopulation, people overusing the worlds resources, or our govt from overspending and borrowing our republic into bankruptcy. When our govt cannot borrow anymore then our currency will also be bankrupt.
You better prepare because all this is coming to a head by 2010 (possibly no more than about three years from now!), dont be in denial for your families sake! This is serious ... think about it ... how will you feed your family in 5+ years?
Watch the Grapes of wrath if you dont think americans starved in 1930's.
Good luck!
8-21-2006 @ 6:35PM
Phil Katt said...
My personal income is in the top 1% of all Ameicans
(actually, the top 1/2 of 1%). I should feel great about the future of the U.S.
I do not feel confident.
I do feel that the economy is like a frozen lake in the spring- looks ok to walk on, but look out when it breaks.
There is an underlying softness in the economy-
consumer debt is at an all time high, government spending is out of control, and the auto companies are bleeding red ink.
Anyone who thinks the economy is wonderful, does not understand the reality of the "house of cards."
P.K.
8-21-2006 @ 8:56PM
Mr. noitall said...
Hey!! Let me pile on with some negative comments about our economy. We allready tapped the the cheap labor markets of India & China the two most populated countries on earth. Now, the cost of that labor will go up. This, along with higher energy & commodity prices will push manufacturing costs higher. Look for more inflation in the real world, don't believe those "core" cpi #'s that are being quoted all the time.
8-21-2006 @ 11:51PM
luv4beer said...
"Economic Blues"...too bad you're too busy being Chicken Little and have no time to look subjectively at the real economic indicators. It's doomsdayers like you that take facts/opinions/generalizations out of context from the SLANTED media and don't consider how the U.S. and international economies actually work together. Oil? Yes, that's a stupidity mainly ignored by the U.S. since our first big red flag from the early 70s. But it's preposterous to predict doomsday for the U.S. Yes, there will be cycles but what in the world makes you believe we are headed for doom by 2010? My suggestion...get a grip, study some recent macro econ, read the international business publications, keep your chin up, and stop believing every slanted new story.
8-22-2006 @ 4:14AM
Economic Blues said...
Luv4beer .... let me guess, you either work in the "commodities" industry, or you sell something for a living?
Either way, your living is probably sustained by continuing to "prop-up" this "house of cards" economy we're all beginning be affected by now.
Most brokerage firms are just "milking" every last dollar out of those still stupid (or greedy enough) to still be in the market today. Any smart investor these days knows that most of the action in the market today is all "hedge" money, not based on anything really tangable. The market is so "flaky" these days, the slightest bad news and the whole thing starts to go into a tailspin,
leaving the remaining average market investors with getting screwed. Meanwhile, their "brokers" will be living it up (at least in the short run) on Martha's Vineyard or the Hamptons. With all the uncertainty in the middle east alone, and the "Bush Doctrine" taking place there, I'm surprised anyone in business today isn't really concerned about where the U.S. is headed in the next few years.
With the Bush administration's latest policy against making it harder for average Americans to file for bankruptcy, if they get in financial trouble ..... you'd naturally suspect the government is protecting the banking industry from something big about to come along in the next few years.
Rapidly rising inflation, rising interst rates, national debt loads at record numbers, the 300+ Billion spent in Iraq, a serious declining housing market, overall declining U.S. wages (first time in US history), and an older consumer base developing (baby boomers), personal debt at all time highs, climbing oil prices, peak oil approaching, huge foreign asset investments made in the U.S., and expanding war in the middle east, only to name a few ..... are hardly opinions and generalizations. These are all hard facts that both you (uv4beer) and our U.S. government are failing to do much about. We have WASTED the last six years in America going BACKWARDS. The American public knows this, it's the business world that is hard to catch up.
Let me guess luv4beer, if you were managing General Motors today, you'd still be recommending that they still continue to manufacture SUV's. It's this lack of forward "progressive" thinking that will eventually bring this great nation to its knees some day soon.
With every high rolling party comes the "hangover period" and if anyone thinks we have since paid off the "sins" for the recent party the Neo-Cons are currently holding ... then believe me, and hang on, because what we are passing along to our children and the next gereration, is going to be a rude awakening for many.
Evidently, "live it up and spend, spend, spend", is the motto of those like "luv4beer" ... or as more and more Americans are coming to realize is the new Neo-Con "economic doctrine".
When companies like Wal-Mart start taking serious hits like they have been lately, that just brings it back down to reality ... "batten down the hatches" the ride is going to be a rough one!
... or in "luv4beer's" case, just stock up the fridge, you're gonna need 'em!
8-22-2006 @ 4:25AM
Head outta the sand said...
Yo luv4beer. Let me guess, you're right in there with the Rumsfeld and "Bush Crew" believing everything's going great in Iraq too?
Most excessively positive dude's like you, are who get us into these failed disasters in the first place. Head in the sand and all.