China may be kicking our collective butts regarding our colossal trade deficit, but it is also doing its fair share of spending too. Spending by China has affected commodity prices (metals, concrete), energy prices (oil & gas), construction service prices (design, planning, engineering, management), shipping, housing, clothing, electronics, you name it. The Chinese have been spending with reckless abandon -- all the time buying our treasury notes and expanding their economy at the rapid pace of 8% to 10% GDP annually. Read the Economist for more, China forecast

Growth in China has spurred the U.S. and the global economy. Reading the comments I have received to yesterday's post Venice Beach as economic indicator: Consumer spending slows, there seems to be plenty of negative sentiment out there about the U.S. economy. Making the case for recession is not hard to do. One could simply look at our run-away trade deficit and Federal spending. With a minimum of economic understanding, you could get scared to death.

My "favorite feature" of the U.S. budget (deficit) is the cost of the Iraq war which is an "off-line" item -- meaning they do not count it in their figures. That's hysterical. Let's all just take our mortgages and rents and put them off-line. Then we won't have to worry about them and no one will notice. The Feds should have a "Department of Pretending". EVERYONE WOULD UNDERSTAND THAT PERFECTLY.

I think the Federal branch learned this trick from Wall Street. It's called a "one-time expense" and since it's not a "recurring expense," analysts just set it aside when determining the value of a company. That stinks, but it will have to be the subject of another story. The problem is we have had this one-time expense (Iraq) for several years and we can anticipate several more.

But I have digressed. The main point I wanted to make here is that we can all make the case for a recession. Trade, debt, spending, energy, housing and numerous other areas support the case. Commenter's have raised these issues and see bad times in the next few years.

While I agree that is a possibility, I think that global recession will be postponed at least until the Chinese have their BIG OLYMPIC SHOW in Beijing, regardless of any other factors. I believe the Chinese government has been postponing numerous "pipers they have to pay" because of the upcoming Summer Olympics. This has been a major focus since they won the right to be the host in 2008. Some of their early and rapid economic expansion can be traced to this effort. When it is over they will utter a collective (leftover communist term) sigh of relief. When that happens, spending will slow, interest rates will be allowed to rise and only firms specializing in the clean-up of the environment will be popular.

China has not only been slow to curb its unsustainable growth, but one of the pipers they will have to pay will be for cleaner water, air and city streets and farmland. The first part to any clean-up campaign is to stop doing those things that are causing the problem; which is everything, in this massive national expansion.

I do not see the same doom that many see. But when China takes that HUGE sigh of relief, then we may have a recession.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for Design and Research of an Architecture & Planning firm.