Some of you laughed when Sheldon Liber pointed to sales of art and crafts in Venice Beach, Calif., as a leading economic indicator -- and some of you (like me) thought it prescient. I couldn't help agreeing, as I'm dialed into the crafts scene here in Portland, Ore., and have watched a startling decline in artsy-fartsy sales since last fall.
Reading today's MarketBeat from The Wall Street Journal [subscription required], then, I found the latest kooky indicator: Bobby. More to the point, the sales of Bobby's grilled chickens. He owns and operates a lunch grill somewhere in the Great Lakes, and his business has fallen sharply, despite lowering his price-per-lunch plate from $7 to $6.25. Notably missing amongst his regulars: the blue-collar workers.
Blogger Jeff Matthews discovered Bobby, and he believes Bobby's chicken sales are an indicator. He writes, "Being in the Midwest, and being a half-dozen hours north of Detroit, what we have here is the real-life impact of those GM and Ford oops-we-make-gas-guzzlers-and gas-is-$3.00-a-gallon headlines, multiplied across dozens of factories and thousands of lives dependent on those companies and their gas guzzlers for work." Matthews believes we'll see the impact in GM, Ford, Toll Brothers, Centex Homes, Lowes, Home Depot.
I'm fascinated to see if these theories end up being correct. Could a slowdown be in the works for the fall?
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
8-23-2006 @ 3:46PM
Lyle said...
It appears that the slowdown is trickling down and starting to impact a larger segment of average people. It does not appear to be impacting the upper middle and rich classes as the boats keep getting bigger at my Marina...
8-23-2006 @ 4:52PM
mark R said...
Giving the data provided and the comments so far I guess its time for king George to give the rich some more tax brakes after all they are unfairly targeted for taxes over the homeless who get free meals at the local soup kitchen.
10-02-2006 @ 12:10PM
Fred said...
Stand Still Little Sheep To Be Shorn !!!
It is corporate america getting blood out of the turnips. If you don't believe this just study the steady decline in your local classified section since the year 2000. Since then there has been a steady decline in the number of jobs as corporate profits haved soared to satisify Wall Street. Those jobs that have been advertised are for much less money (and benifits?) for the same work. This greed scenario has always lead the way to our recessions and once even a depression. Check it out!!!
8-29-2006 @ 8:25PM
Ann said...
I'm sure all of this is actually true, I do belive it. But wouldn't be nice if people were realizing that they can still live without buying MORE junk? And God forbid we actually prepare our own meals, oh, the horror!
8-31-2006 @ 3:43AM
vera said...
Fred has a part of it right. When business is expanding, they hire, and hire, and hire till they have more on payroll than they need (spending too much money). They start losing money partly for that reason, and economic situations too. So downturns do happen regularly and people will be laid off to become more "efficient." But notice, we have a very low unemployment rate. People are working, a lot. And more hours than they want to. We work much more than most European countries, and it shows. And more people work. It's a good work ethic in the US.
8-29-2006 @ 10:47PM
Sue said...
I know that there is a slowdown. My husband works in a factory making oatmeal. When the economy slows down, what do people buy? Oatmeal. It's cheap and nutrious. And what have they been doing? Working every weekend since the end of June and they are scheduled for every weekend through the winter -- holidays included. They have not worked this much in a long, long time.
8-29-2006 @ 8:52PM
Brad said...
I own my own business which is the sports colelctibles market.I can tell you from the amount of stuff people are coming in and selling, we are heading for something bad.With gas at $3.00 a gallon, it is finally hitting the average person hard.Go to the grocery store, I have seen prices got up 50 cents to $1.00 per item on some stuff I buy.Look a laundry soap, how much that costs now.
8-29-2006 @ 8:55PM
Tonya Landon said...
Iam in the residential service sector and the calls for repair service has steadly derclined to the point I get more calls from people looking for work than from customers.
8-29-2006 @ 8:57PM
olivia olivas said...
I would like to know what the rate is on walgreens.
8-29-2006 @ 9:09PM
Bud Foster said...
If this is the first time you have experienced a slower economy, you are very young or have led an atypical life. Your grandparents, maybe even your parents, wshuld be ashamed of your greed and negativism.
8-29-2006 @ 9:09PM
Michael G. Odette said...
What in the hell do you expect people? You sold out to the Japanese and the Germans, What they could not do in WWll, they have done to us now! You wanted cheaper tin...,you got it. You wanted to flaunt your wealth, you did it! Now you reap the whirlwind! I've worked for a BMW outfit for 20+ yrs and have seen them out sell the GM side of the business. How sad! But Hey, America, isn't that what you wanted? Think about it!!
8-29-2006 @ 9:10PM
Tony said...
I have my own indicator of inflation--Dollar Stores. A can of their house brand bathroom cleaner still sells for a dollar--but now it's $1.00/14 oz. instead of $1.00/20 oz. That's a 30% increase. I'm sure some of it is increased profit, but I'm going to be watching Dollar store products to calculate the real rate of inflation, which is gamed by the government.
8-29-2006 @ 9:10PM
warren said...
as a small biz owner, who deals with govt. @ local & state level, i would have to say it's the lack of business knowledge that our govt. leaders? have which creates additional costs for developers, which is passed on to the business owner, which is then passed on to the end consumer. Ignorance at all levels of govt and the court system is eroding this country from a productivity level and morals. As for income, most people are paid pretty much what they're worth. if you don't like it, talk to your state rep. who sent many jobs across the border or overseas. whats bad about America? the politicians and attorney's; sorry most politicians are attorneys- my bad
8-29-2006 @ 9:24PM
beth said...
you would never guess that gas is $3.00 a gallen when you walk into Starbucks with a line waiting to buy their $5.00 drinks...which I love by the way :)
8-29-2006 @ 9:24PM
George said...
SOme people need to get a life. How much junk can people buy without running out of need or running their credit card up too much. Yes there are going to be slowdowns. For the person who doesn't like the rich. If it were not for them, you wouldn't have a job. No one would be able to fund a company.
8-29-2006 @ 9:26PM
L N said...
The average american, can't buy anything anymore without credit and a butt load of interest. What does that tell us? Why are so many people loosing and unable to keep a home? The rich continue to get richer and the middle class and lower class continue to get poorer. Who do we blame? The government? Ourselves? Greed? A Time will come and a need for reform will arise, until then the middle and lower part of society will continue to suffer, and pay the price. Unfortunately, the children always suffer the most. Does anyone have the answers? Does anyone believe in anything anymore?
8-29-2006 @ 9:42PM
Myjobsbeeneliminated said...
Check the downsizing reports. Life gets expensive when you're on unemployment!
8-29-2006 @ 9:44PM
homer cassada said...
This too shall pass!
8-29-2006 @ 9:59PM
Bill Hamman said...
My indicator is "pennies found". For many, many years I have picked up any change I found in parking lots, stores or where ever. It is predominantly pennies. I have noticed that when the economy is good, pennies are all over the parking lots. When the economy is slow, pennies are few and far between and nickels, dimes and quarters are non-existent.
I have found maybe 4 or 5 pennies all summer. I normally average 10 to 11 a week.
We are in a downturn.
8-31-2006 @ 7:16AM
RENE LABRE said...
TIMES IS HARD!!!!!