Some of you laughed when Sheldon Liber pointed to sales of art and crafts in Venice Beach, Calif., as a leading economic indicator -- and some of you (like me) thought it prescient. I couldn't help agreeing, as I'm dialed into the crafts scene here in Portland, Ore., and have watched a startling decline in artsy-fartsy sales since last fall.
Reading today's MarketBeat from The Wall Street Journal [subscription required], then, I found the latest kooky indicator: Bobby. More to the point, the sales of Bobby's grilled chickens. He owns and operates a lunch grill somewhere in the Great Lakes, and his business has fallen sharply, despite lowering his price-per-lunch plate from $7 to $6.25. Notably missing amongst his regulars: the blue-collar workers.
Blogger Jeff Matthews discovered Bobby, and he believes Bobby's chicken sales are an indicator. He writes, "Being in the Midwest, and being a half-dozen hours north of Detroit, what we have here is the real-life impact of those GM and Ford oops-we-make-gas-guzzlers-and gas-is-$3.00-a-gallon headlines, multiplied across dozens of factories and thousands of lives dependent on those companies and their gas guzzlers for work." Matthews believes we'll see the impact in GM, Ford, Toll Brothers, Centex Homes, Lowes, Home Depot.
I'm fascinated to see if these theories end up being correct. Could a slowdown be in the works for the fall?
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Reader Comments (Page 3 of 3)
8-30-2006 @ 12:28AM
Mark said...
I live in a middle to upper class area and know for a fact everyone if feeling the effects of the economy.
3 years ago our bay was always crowded with boats and beach-goers.
This year there is hardly a boat in sight and the beaches are near empty. Everyone must be working overtime to make up for gas and inflation.
8-30-2006 @ 12:36AM
GetReal said...
The economy's in a downturn? Really? What were everyone's first clues? Gas prices? Food prices? Utility bills? Less change left on the ground? Guess what. The handwriting's been on the wall for at least a decade. The "free trade" bills that got through Congress over the years were among the first dominoes knocked over in what is now the absolute mess we live with today. Thank ALL those in power who got exactly what they wanted... everything for nothing. Until somebody, anybody, does something, anything, to make it worthwhile for companies big and small to keep here, bring back, and create more decent-paying jobs, nothing will improve and stay improved for the lower class and what's left of the "middle" class. This is all old news to me, people!
8-30-2006 @ 12:54AM
Mike Burk said...
It is far better to eat two slices of bread with nothing between, than to finance the bologna.
8-30-2006 @ 1:07AM
katie said...
this is a government issue.. poor leaders, unemployment rises.. i say stop the politicians from pocketing the funds, and feed the poor instead.. greed, and more greed.. we live in new jersey, and we voted for corzine.. darn, i pushed the wrong party again, but the choices we had were poor to begin with~~~ oh, well, we can always move, as many are.. jersey is a bad state to live in ~~ katie
8-30-2006 @ 1:12AM
Ken Plonkey said...
If people didn't have to to have $300K homes and $50K cars, every possible electronic toy and gizmo, they would have money for lunch. The economy is still very good, thanks to tax cuts, and the general working public still very dumb.
8-30-2006 @ 1:20AM
Gina said...
We are headed for DISASTER.....I say it is about time for the big boys at the top to feel what us little guys at the bottom feel every day.....They will have a much harder landing when they come crashing down from way up there.....Hello People, Vote DEMOCRAT it must be better than what is in our government office at the present time.....
8-30-2006 @ 1:25AM
Susan Lamm said...
I've been a small business owner for 6 years, due to divorce, I forfeited my business and kept my home. I'm hoping that was the wise decision. Real estate is usually a good investment and weathers the storm. For the person that advised us regarding living on credit cards is greedy and ignorant, I say this, sometimes divorce is the only remedy for this problem, since one cannot control anothers behavior and divorce is devastating for children, perhaps a return to family values, ah but, I'm a dreamer.
8-30-2006 @ 3:20AM
Don said...
Well, it's about damn time people started coughing up the truth about the economic realities going on in our nation. Some economist's say there's a chance that the economy is headed towards a recession.I dont need the media, whether it's newspapers, business magazines, TV or radio to tell me which way the wind is blowing. Hell we fell in a recession here in California in July. That killer Heat Wave in the middle of the month put us under.People are living on credit cards out here. I live in the Sacramento metro area, which has the most affordable housing of any large metropolitan area in the state ( $380,000.00 Average house price)and people are begining to choke on their greed, I mean debt. What everybody needs to do is go on a cut-back diet as well as a stamp out fast food diet. We dont need to buy all this crap anyway. To HELL with keeping up with the Jones'es. They are more than likely sinking, but would never let you know that. Corporate America has us all by the balls. Too bad for the fact that we are all a bunch of greedy, selfish sheep otherwise we all could stop buying anything at all for just 1 week,and we could rattle corporate america pretty good. We are like the big elephant chained to the pole. Not knowing we could break that chain.
8-30-2006 @ 9:58AM
Bart Stewart said...
I am a little baffled by some of your interpretations of these "indicators." A slow-down of artsy fartsy items can be interpretted as meaning people are not doing their own decorating. Nothing dire about that. And grilled chicken is about as cheap as protein gets. If they can't afford grilled chicken what the hell are they eating? Grass? I think the bottom line is that you have not monitored these indicators of yours long enough to draw any proper conclusions. Still, to me the overall scene looks like we're entering a slight slowdown. Nothing drastic.
8-30-2006 @ 7:10AM
SMcClain said...
I agree with one previous statement about our elected officials lacking business experience. They do and take alot of things for granted. Unfortunately, many have never built a business from the ground up nor had to wrestle with benefits or healthcare costs for employees. Many tend to focus on just the large corporations and forget that this country has more smaller businesses than large. There is also a lack of respect for small businesses and for ordinary people. We push everyone to be rich or live rich without knowing what that means. I think we have to challenge our legislators more. Encourage to the point of demand that they sit with local, regional and state business leaders. Develop real strategies that will support communities.
8-30-2006 @ 2:19AM
bill said...
Im not sure what you guys are talking about, but i know that i do not drive nearly as much as i used to.Before i never really thought about my gas vs travel distance, but now i am very concious of it.i keep thinking; how are you dealing with the recent massive price growth? Everything from groceries to lumber it all started in '02.
8-30-2006 @ 2:26AM
Mindy said...
I have owned two small unrelated businesses for many years. I have seen a steady decline in business over the last two years at both businesses. All of the business owners I know have been saying the same thing. I don't mind cutting back on my own spending, but I sure hate to lay off good employees because sales are bleak with no end in sight. That hurts everyone. Hopefully the cycle will swing back the other way soon.
8-30-2006 @ 3:09AM
Susie Adams said...
Oh My...Do I hear whining in the background? Can't keep up the payments on those maxed out credit cards or tnat million dollar 5 bedroom, 4 bath monstrosity? Let's blame Government, Big Business, the oil comanies, anything but ourselves for getting into the gimme trap..People, take stock...sell some of that "had to have" stuff on eBay and quit buying and concentrate on lowering your debt.
8-30-2006 @ 2:54AM
Khaos said...
in this slow down its even hard to get a crappy fast food job. they are looking for immigrants and teenagers. not the unsuccessful people trying to make ends meet, catch up on things; like fixing thier car so they can drive the 20+ miles to get to the higher paying jobs. another part of corperate america shoving out the lower/middle class man and holding him down. next time you go to olive garden red lobster or any sit down mid scale resturant know this mexicans and teenagers are making that meal. and what do they do send the money over seas and buy drugs, i know ive been there and seen it and its disgraceful. but thier profits are there so they don't care.
8-30-2006 @ 2:57AM
ces said...
I have to really laugh at the comment about jobs being sent across the border and to other countries..You're acting like this is a NEW thing? JOBS are for those WILLING to work and to accept the pay rate that goes WITH the job!
99% of the reason the companies are going overseas and across the border with their employment and companies are because of the "accidents and law suits" here which cost them thousands of dollars in benefits,hundreds of dollars in therapy and still they don't have the worker at the job! Frivolous lawsuits cost the company,they're going to take their business to the third world companies,because by GOD,those folks there WILL work a job,WILL be committed to that job and WILL be there on time..Even if the job pays $5.00 a day..and in many cases-thats exactly what their pay rate is.
Want the lower middle class (like myself) to get paid more? TELL your congressmen/women,they just put in for min wage to go up BUT it will take 3 YEARS to get it there! LOL>>HOW BOUT we tell them YOU CAN'T GET PAID YOUR FULL WAGE FOR 3 YEARS? You'd see the $$$ hit the pay table quick like!
8-30-2006 @ 4:57AM
Jerry Lapido said...
My DAD used to say "You can fill a baloon with just so much air before it bursts"and that is our economy.
Prices for the American Dream (HOMES) has sky rocketed to the point,that in order to keep the sales up,the mortgage lenders are going to a 50(FIFTY) year mortgages;what's that tell us?Well i am taking one day at a time,aand keeping the Faith.
Signed:Spring Break Joey Saint Cloud,Florida
9-11-2006 @ 10:29AM
Debra said...
Alot of our standard of living is going down because we have so many illegal aliens. they come here work for unlivable wages and companies are seeking them out. They can live on the wages because when you have 6 or 7 adults in the house working, even if its minimun wage that is livable. But thats how they lived in mexico i'm told, but that is so very illegal here. There is supposed to be x amount of square footage per person. I have seen 20 of them in a 2 bedroom apt, including the kids, not only is that unsafe its unsanitary. Si if we want to make in in the us now I gues we will have to resort to that.
9-19-2006 @ 11:10AM
D said...
My husband in his mid-50's was layed off in NE yesterday for the second time in one year. We have two houses we bought as investments we are trying to sell with no bites in FL. Thank god we have no college tuitions this year. We are more fortunate than most but the despair is very real and the panic is rising. Health insurance and taxes are nagging requirements for living marginally and they only increase over time. Something has got to give. We DON'T WANT HAND-OUTS..... we want to work using those fantastic college educations that everyone continues to promote as the ticket to success!!!!!!!!!!! We can't let terror infiltrate our lives this way as it was ultimately what our enemies in the Middle East(and elsewhere) were hoping for. Undermine the US confidence level and wreak havoc on our marketplace. Let's turn this around and pronto....