Lunch at O'Brien's Irish Restaurant & Pub: six bucks (drinks not included) -- oh my! In Santa Monica, with Wilshire Boulevard rents yet -- unbelievable!
Sarah Gilbert and I have been finding little bits of information here and there (Economic indicators coming from more unlikely places) that support the notion the slowing economy is being felt by the "little guy" first, as usual. Small business owners see it first because they have very flat enterprises. (Venice Beach as a leading economic indicator) Owner and staff and that's it. Sometimes just themselves. Employees receiving a paycheck see it early and have the least options to adjust to change, and fixed income seniors -- they're totally stressed out.
Large companies have so many levels of management that by the time the guy at the top feels the pain (assuming he ever does) of the guy at the bottom he has already collected his bonus for his underperforming company. By the time the guy at the top responds to the needs of the guy on the bottom (assuming he ever does) the guy on the bottom has already figured out what he needs to do to survive and has helped himself.
Composing this post in my head walking back from lunch I wondered about how much attention we pay to Wall Street data each day, even though that data really comes to us second-hand from everywhere else.
I started going to O'Brien's almost three years ago as a sanctuary in the middle of my 16- to 18-hour crazy days. I don't even drink alcohol but the pub is nearby and they have great food (absolute best roast turkey sandwich) so it became one of my hide outs. The owner, William O'Sullivan does not allow cell phone use inside, another relief ... more places should do that. Everyone is talking about adjusting their budgets to deal with energy costs and that leaves less for dining out. Willy told me he reduced his marketing budget and hopes his pricing structure will increase the lunch crowd business instead. I'm not sure about reducing marketing in any economy, but he had to cut somewhere, and that was his choice.
Looking ahead, if the little guy is feeling it in November so will the Republicans, and before anyone accuses me of taking sides let me make it very clear -- I split my vote, and vote for the person and the issues not the party!
There is no question that the biggest impact on the economy is energy prices. Interestingly, gas prices, inflation-adjusted, are probably about right. However, that ignores many important factors. Energy prices affect more things than they did in the past and more things are automated / electric than ever before. Also, the macro economy adapts to whatever condition is thrust upon it and whatever level fuel prices are at is accounted for, so a rapid rise in energy prices rocks the system no matter how you try to rationalize any part of it.
Hank served up my hot apple pie and gave me the bartender's view of things before I departed -- he gets an earful each day. Santa Monica is an affluent community by most measures. But things are changing here too. What do you see and hear on your Main Street?
Disclosure: I received no compensation from Willy or Hank, the Democratic Party, City of Santa Monica, State of California or any small business owners, employees, or senior citizens anywhere in the country. However if Willy offers a free cup of coffee and a slice of pie I will accept it.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for Design and Research of an Architecture & Planning firm.
How I Squandered My Inheritance at Age 18
Springtime Budget-Busters -- Savings Experiment


Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-24-2006 @ 4:19AM
Gary E. Sattler said...
So it finally hits home...or at least someone finally noticed.
One should not be surprised that the adjustment is beginning at street level, it always does. This time it's not just another blip in the world economic scheme. This time it's for real. America has reached the point that between yearly inflation and the continued assault of yearly incremental tax increases, we at the bottom of the food chain are running out of cold hard cash. The manufacturers of the world will soon know it.
You could see it coming from four decades ago (if you were watching). It began with the destruction of the steel industry in the 1970's. It continued with the insidious pillaging of our auto manufacturing empire in the 80's. Through the 90's manufacturing strongholds continued to be softened and picked apart one by one. The demon NAFTA etched the whole losing proposition in stone. Gradually as corporate profit taking has moved the manufacturing platform off American soil we, the American backbone, had to adjust, but we've adjusted well.
We've now reached the point of critical mass. That being, we have come to that point in the road where we almost no longer get to choose which way we go. We do not have the delight of being the leader of the pack. We are now defensivly slugging it out in a full blown world economy. We are very deeply wounded... but there's good news.
The one thing we have not lost is the one thing which has always pulled us through. Our tough, hard earned pioneer spirit coupled with our will and desire to excel. Never have we conceded defeat, even as we've watched our power slip away. The rank and file still have the guts to make this country work and work profitably. The world is soon to see that America is still in the lead when it comes to resolve.
What you are about to witness, (and it's going to be a slow painful process), is the gradual return of manufacturing leadership back to our own shores.
For forty years world manufacturing has assualted the American wage base. With jobs being out sourced and a constant influx of individuals adapted to living comfortably on substandard wages, the playing field is finally becoming pretty much leveled...and we're still here. Fuel costs and the expenses of raw materials have now reached levels where we can again compete head to head in the world manufacturing arena. We have the materials, the infrastructure, the know how and the will to take back what we've been stripped of. We are strong, mobile, adaptable, and finely tuned to the "just in time" manufacturing principle. Turnover times are minimal. Throughput is still on the rise.
What is required now will be painful to some but so has been the decline we've had to witness for so long. Now, the BIG GUYS are going to have to step back a bit and let us do what we do. Tax growth must become stagnant, or nearly so. The insurance industry needs to get back to investing in business and stop raping the work force. Manufacturing startups must be encouraged from all levels. Domestic investment is paramount. Labor and management must continue the blending of thought they have accomplished. We must again tighten our belts, tighten our borders and continue to streamline our manufacturing practices. The days of aquiring profits by sheer productivity volume are gone. The federal government has been trying to show us that for the last three years... without jamming it down our throats. It's time to remind the world what craftsmanship and innovation are all about. We built this country on them. They're still here. Now that manufacturing costs are equalizing world wide it's time we use them again. We've had enough of this playing with money to make money. It's time to get back to building stuff!
Do you believe that America can be a manufacturing super power again? Do you believe we can regain our status and wealth? Just invest a little time and money in US!
We down here in the trenches will show the world again how it's done.
Gary E. Sattler
8-24-2006 @ 8:26PM
Mr. noitall said...
Nice speech, Gary, Yes, I think manufactoring will come back, and I agree it will be a long, slow, painful process. But, I don't see this "blending" of thought between Labor & management that you are talking about, and I don't think the "BIG GUY'S " are going to take a step back willingly. They're going have to be pushed back. I would also say that energy & material prices are not a relevant factor. Cheap labor was and still is the main reason these jobs left the U.S. But now that the labor markets of China & India have been tapped, manufactoring wages will finally rise, both there and eventually here. I also think we got alot of other problems that have to work themselves out, too many to mention now. I spend the day in the trenches, and I'm tired.
8-25-2006 @ 7:59AM
Stephanie said...
Sheldon,
Enjoyed the post! Economists love to tell us that the "core" Consumer Price Index (that omits food and fuel) is not rising much so we should all be happy. My problem is that I get very grouchy when I go without food and fuel!!
As for American manufacturing, I don't think we will see a return of old-style production but there is a chance that we can grow in new, innovative product areas. In the meantime, if your "pen hand" (or "mouse hand") grows weary from writing to politicians about the topic, try actually buying something made in the USA.
http://www.stillmadeinusa.com