Sheldon I concur with your analysis on Safa. I also would like to reset my prior insights on this matter of a previous respond.
1.Down grade by Safa is obfuscating, I would NOT want to be a client of his, he is THE Google trumping idiot by HYPING the "do no evil" with smoke & mirrors.
EBay is transparent in its guidance, caution not to leap, working in agreement with Myspace to network SKYPE, Meg sure has some ace cards, auction is at near maturing, at the lower level, this company is upping anti is to be competitive within the e-commerce in a retailing bidding format incorporating the option instant buying. That is a success for the consumer bottom line, which is clear to the fee hike objectives, clearing out the junk.
2. Safa Rashtchy the very same who has hyped Google "paypal killer, MS spreadsheets killer and on. &.on. FAIL to mention Google Q2 Free cash flow was less than $250 million and losing market level across the board. Convince us of your $500+ price target of Google while Capex spending vs. net is > per employee (Goog) vs. Ebay.
I often wonder what form of math formula is he using?

Kudos to Sheldon..
Best wishes.

I think the $600.00 is realistic,but not until earnings are reported in January. I don't think the initiatives will start to kick in until the fourth quarter,but when they do look out. Being an election year should limit the rise until after the election.

eBay, even at current levels, is wayyyy overpriced considering their days of growth are near the end.

I believe any further growth will be mostly the result of accounting trickery (see ENRON) and not real growth.

Here's an example of the kind of trickery used by eBay to pump the stock: The number of 'confirmed registered users' they report in the SEC filings is a false and misleading information. They intend for you to believe it represents individuals but in fact it merely represents eBay accounts. Many eBayers have multiple accounts, some have dozens. And yet each account is counted as a "confirmed registered user'. So while eBay reports 203 million confirmed registered users in the latest filing, the fact is the number of individuals using eBay is way less than that. Probably 1/3rd or less.

When eBay stock hits $5 a share I MIGHT considering buying. If I owned it now I would sell or hedge my bet to cover the downside. Any day now the stock will collapse like a house of cards in a hail storm!

Ebay is the only game in town for the auction crowd. The also have Verisign, Paypal, and Skype... premier companies. The won't lose too much.

When Piper Jafray announced the new target price for eBay, member of eBay's Stores Discussion board went crazy. Why? Because finally, some analyst made a prediction for the site based on more than just looking at the numbers that eBay provides in their press releases (which are always inflated because they are released after listing sales, which artificially drive the total number of listing skyward for only a week).
As far as Google hitting $600 by the end of the year...maybe not, but I look for the stock to skyrocket sometime soon, barring and unforseen major issues. There have been a ton of eBay Stores that have closed after the announced fee hike. Many users have begun work on their own ecommerce sites, and not just stay-at-home-momss either, many are high level Power Sellers who sell $100,000 or more per month. What is yet to be seen with what impact Google Checkout will have. Everyday there are new stores using the new Google Checkout (we set our one store up for Checkout just yesterday). As Checkout grows, so will Google's stock price. After all, Paypal has been keeping eBay afloat for years now.

EBAY is a sinking ship.It's scary when the majority of EBAY's own top executives sell their stock options the day after receiving them (do they know something the rest of the world doesn't).

Enhancements on the site that are highly successful they eliminate and enhancements that continually do not work for seller's they keep.And here's the reality to EBAY,it's not the buyer's that make EBAY,it is the sellers.Their complete alienation of sellers in 2006 has not only destroyed the mom and pop operations but many of the largest sellers on EBAY have exited the site.And more and more are leaving each day.Their promotion of EBAY EXPRESS is a compilation of dropship sellers with some of the worse feedback on EBAY.

Very few even use Skype and this 2.4 billion dollar blunder is one of the biggest jokes ever purchased by a company of the magnitude of EBAY.

EBAY needs a serious changing of the guard (Meg has the lowest CEO approval rating ever by Forbes polls and Bill Cobb has no clue on how to handle customers of a .com company).With a changing of the guard EBAY may become a viable company again but definitely not in the near future with present management.

Sheldon makes some real good points.

Guessing is really all we have on the eBay front. These are my guesses:

1. eBay's current management will be out within the next 12-months. That can only help the share price.

2. Aside from incompetent management, the only major problem that eBay has is a severe lack of buyers on their venue. Many former buyers have now rejected the site as it has gained a reputation of being a hotbed of consumer fraud. New management will address this problem and reverse the trend, but it will take a long time.

3. When new management dumps SKYPE, pulls the plug on the China fiasco, abandons EXPRESS, and puts a stop to the consumer fraud, the company will reconsolidate and do very well again.

4. If you hear confirmed rumors of a merger any time soon, better not hold onto shares of eBay's new partner. No due diligence will reveal the real downside until after current management is no longer in charge of pitching such a merger.

5. It is too risky to short this thing right now. A big pop could come any time with an early announcement that top management has departed. I hope to get another buying shot in the $10 to $16 range, but it might not happen, if management is tossed sooner than later.

DISCLOSURE: I am neither long nor short here. Current price is too high for me with the current management still around, and I cannot short it for fear that a fast management dump will take it back to $37+.

Sheldon, you are correct. All we have on this one is guesses.

Hiram

GOOG will NEVER see $600.00 unless it does a reverse split. What's amazing is that even people who seem realistic about EBAY (which won't see $600 either! Or, $60!) are still all Ga-Ga about GOOG, as though its some sort of Demi-God. GOOG is worth roughly $150 - $200 a share AT MOST. And, that is because they have such a heavy cash position. How quickly we forget that AMCC's (now $2s) CEO & INSP (now $20s) were once not-so-long ago hailed as $1 TRILLION companies! BRCM was going to $1000 and QCOM, well, QCOM was going to RULE THE WORLD with CDMA!!!

And, now GOOG. GOOG is NOT a $100 BIL company. Be serious. Forget stock price, the company, even at huge growth rates that are predicted still has to deal with increasing competition, which leads to declining margins, and declining net profits.

Doesn't anyone remember AMZN, which was going to get ALL retail commerce on the internet and which Henry "Hatchetman" Blodget predicted $400 price target on?

And, what about The Globe.com? Public north of $200 MIL and then BUST.

Oh, yes, but GOOG is different!!! GOOG is the NEXT MSFT!!! Or, perhaps better!

Maybe, and maybe I'm wrong, but I'll take $150 and you take $600 or even $500 or even $400, or even $300 and 2 - 3 years from now let me know if you want to sleep on my couch.

Oh, and lest I forget Goldman Sachs, and Abbey "The Conehead" great call oN ETYS!!! It was a STRONG BUY at $70s! Less than a year later the company was BUST!

Oh, and by the way, as a top trader, it seemed to me that Goldman was on the ASK all WEEK when they gave ETYS as that BUY! Funny, they did the same thing a couple weeks ago with HANS I believe and funny how HANS then missed and got CRUSHED.

If you buy into analysts, or even foolish outrageous prognostications you will get burned. Stocks are meant to be TRADED, not owned. Particularly trading-BEASTS like GOOG which provide you $3 - $15 points a day TRADING them. Make that a few times fading the gap and you won't care whether GOOG goes to $50 or $2000!

Oh, yeah, wasn't there an analyst earlier this year who gave GOOG a $2000 target? Why stop at $600 when you can have $2000!!!

See ya on the other side,

Michael "WAXIE" Parness
CEO Trendfund.com

Hi Sheldon,

Oh dear. The first independent analysis of eBay that hasn't relied on the cut and paste buttons used on the stuff that dribbles out from the PR people in San Diego and, guess what, you try to rubbish it. So the stock closes at $25.29 and you mock because he predicted $25! Prey tell us, what was the stock trading at yesterday? Never mind last January!

The simple fact that SHOULD be becoming obvious toanyone that understands eBay is there is stale, rudderless bad management at fault here.

Skype? Billions? Enough said surely unless you are a cut and paste blogger.

Not convinced? Okay, you have 500,000 stores open on eBay, each paying between $16 and $500 per month for a few web pages even if they don't make a sale. Do the monthly/yearly income math. If you owned a web hosting company would you deliberately alienate these customers? Show me anywhere eBay can genuinely recoup that kind of income to stop profits slding again this year and I'm all ears.

In the meantime this stock is a DOG until the management is dumped. Depending who comes along and with what vision, then you may have a runner. Until then your earned dollar is safer with a Nigerian chain letter author.

The worse case scenario is they stall. Protect their selfish behinds and make out they know what they are doing. Whats worse is the analytical community swallows the endless inaccurate predictions, apologies, excuses and BS PR. If I seem hard then, think, a lot of American retirement savings have been invested on the repeated failed promises eminating from this shower of.... management.

Any volunteers for the easiest job in the world?

CEO of eBay. Requirement:

1) Stop providing a free website for the chinese to target the US with counterfeit and second rate goods thus driving buyers away to yard sales.

2) Value and communicate with the massive customer base you have already built because we haven't yet found life on Mars to replace them.

3) Get a math qualification before you think about throwing away store sellers monthly subscriptions.

4) Move with the times, open your eyes and stop being so darn arrogant that you don't see any threats from competition.

5) Next time you want to spend money on another Skype, look at the quality, demand and likely competition, not the high price that seems impressive!

6) Remember you have investors with brains that can see a 40%, or even 27%, year on year growth in core listings means there should be more listings now than there was last year.

7) And most important. When a criminal uses eBay to commit a scam or fraud, do everything you can to stop them doing it again on eBay within minutes. It tends to ruin the buyers "magic" of the eBay experience.

Please Sheldon. If you want to report on a subject, don't be a sheep, do some research.

Piper Jaffrey seems to be the only analyst who
is NOT deaf,blind & dumb as regards Ebays
horrible downward spiral!

''Do you envision GOOG advancing more than 50% by the end of the year? ''
If they open up a form of stores and online auction system...YES. It may make history but then so would the arrival of a rival for e-Bay.

Most investors trust "analysts" too much. Take a look at Piper Jaffray's own disclosure on their coverage of Google!
http://pjc.bluematrix.com/bluematrix/NewDisclosure?ticker=GOOG

"Disclosures: Piper Jaffray was making a market in the securities of Google Inc. at the time this research report was published. Piper Jaffray WILL BUY AND SELL Google Inc. securities on a principal basis. Piper Jaffray HAS RECEIVED COMPENSATION for investment banking services from or has had a client relationship with Google Inc. within the past 12 months. Within the past 3 years Piper Jaffray participated in a public offering of, or ACTED AS A DEALER MANAGER for, Google Inc. securities."

As a market maker for Google, why can't we see
what their real intention is when they shout out $600? Let's say I'm a Ford dealer, and if I say that the mustang is worth $100,000 sticker price, what am I trying to do? What if I'm a hollywood agent and I claim my superstar is worth more than Tom Cruise's former contract with Universal, what I am really trying to say?

Well, what did I tell you? Ebay shares got kicked around a bit this week ... now didn't they.

Wait till Monday.

Do you really think it was because one stock analyst had the guts to step up and say it like it is?

Not hardly.



How's this for numbers, I'll keep it nice and round:

Over the last year eBay listings have held at about 15 million items for sale. I tracked this all week and right now they're straining to maintain 13.5. This does not include eBay motors... but that's it's own problem.

Here's the kicker 1,620,000 of those current listings are fielded by eBay's five largest... you guessed it... STORES!!!

And what would you expect those stores are selling?

One of the five is an auto parts retailer (with a stellar reputation I might add).

The other four STORE sellers are selling mainly BOOKS AND CD's!!!

The kind of thing that Ann Lambert keeps coming in here and calling "junk".

Now, if you look at those store's numbers analytically you will find that using the current listing fee schedule, not only could those four stores not be making any money, they'd be losing big ground every day.(Except maybe the auto parts retailer).

So why are they doing it? Why are they still selling?

It seems obvious to me that EBAY is subsidising those operations!

I am virtually certain that eBay has given sweet deals to these five stores ONLY in an attempt to hold up their listing volume. I actually estimate that there are about twelve store operations they are currently subsidising but these five are the ones I looked at closest. Yes, volume dealers should get price breaks but the turnover these stores show just doesn't pan out.

I'll bet all twelve are selling "junk", with exception of the auto parts retailer.

I've seen eBay using the verbiage "poorly priced merchandise" to the point that it makes me sick but they are yet to site examples of those poorly priced things.

I spend more time cruising eBay listings than Bill Cobb spends on his yacht. I fail to see the troubling merchandise they're talking about.

Yes, there are serious issues over there, but they're majorly NOT on the sales floor. The worst situations occur in the money changing arena. That's the main place eBay is still seriously lacking in attention. They don't care how the money moves, as long as they get their cut when it does. The sales floor does need some active policing for the protection of the clientele but a little intervention from invited law enforcement would go a long way. When the riff raff find out that the boys in blue are working, they always slink off to easier pickings.

We're still having fun over there but the overall atmosphere of the place is changing. We are reacting to the change in environment as any population would.

We are like a small country being dictated to by leadership that just doesn't care. Bill Cobb stands on his balcony, pointing at the masses, muttering
"Let them eat cake".

We don't want cake Bill and we don't want you.

Now, get out of our yard!


Gary and Anna Sattler

Ebay store owners(who are also Ebay's buyers) are leaving in droves.
Ebay has maintained a stone silence in the face of questions regarding removing stores from search engines, system glitches, fee hikes to western sellers while Chinese sellers get free listings, permitting counterfeit items to be sold, rampant fraud, gross postage overcharges by some sellers, site issues, Paypal issues, and lack of customer service.
Store owners are upset over the complete lack of response from Ebay. It is as if we fell off the edge of the earth. The longer Ebay remains silent, the louder store owners will get. All this does is cause bad PR and ill will for everybody involved. C'mon Ebay! Respond to your customers!

I totally agree with the above comment regarding the Chinese listings on the American Ebay. I couldnt figure out why the Chinese were able to waste so much money on listing fees until I found out they get to list for free on the American Ebay. What it created was a bunch of cheap dimestore stuff flooding the American Ebay crowding out the American sellers and turning off buyers as they cant browse or find anything. Another genius move by ebay leadership I guess.

The problem with many market analysts is that they spend too much time looking at statistics and trying to spin them to their own specific agenda and investments. Seeing as Ebay comprises of sellers and buyers, surely they are more of a reliable indicator as to how Ebay performs. The recent protests regarding the 'fee hike' were significantly played down by Ebay in the media as limited to a 'small but vocal group' of sellers. EVERYONE knows Ebay significantly played this down. Also consider that for every protester, there were x5 sellers who shut up shop quietly. What will the value of Ebay shares be once the public find out about the massive exodus of sellers to Ebid?

Some interesting and very observant comments in these posts. Not everyone has bought the official eBay PR rubbish. They can see the figures and do the maths for themselves.

As to a small and vocal group, well that small and vocal group managed to get a lot of airtime and TV coverage over in the UK so I wouldn't write them off as a load of insignificant mom & pop sellers.

As has been said many silent protesters have already voted with their feet by going to Ebid, whose numbers have risen dramatically in the last few weeks.

Ebayers have been complaining of slow sales for months, the reason is the buyers had already started to find 'IT' on Ebid and other sites.

I wouldn't say that eBay has shot itself in the foot, it's blown both its bl***dy legs off!

Sheldon, ..pardon.
I will explain ONCE of the fee hike issue for those who of you who do not get it, as I am speaking to a 3 year old.
What would you to want to carry around in your pocket...10 pennies or a shinny DIME.? Why should Ebay.?
The cost of carry for items that is not SUITED for Ebay distribution needed to be addressed, this is an appeasable forum on Ebay part, they could not have just closed unwanted stores, Ebay has responsibly to their customer (buyer) first, equalizing elements on that basis.
Perhaps Safa can predict absolutely how $40 billion in E-commerce merchandise sale (2005) having a second venue without his second guessing?.
Investors have taken notice yesterday in the option market for Jan-07 puts. 34k place
between 40.00 & 42.5 strike price.

Stores are closing every day on eBay and the ones opening up are from the Far East .. usually containing scammers and fraud

eBays managment has already shown no thought by assuming that when there are fewer stores and thus fewer sales there will still be the same traffic or more using Paypal.
There are and will still be strikes going on within all the sites. You only need visit stores to see this is happening .
The fact the US media does not want to cover this is a mystery to me as it has been covered by the UK and the Italian media.
A stock that is under pressure from its costomers is certainly in for a rough ride long term.
However with eBay it is now so unpopular with a vast number of the people who gave it both business and credibility ( for eBays benefit i would like to point out they are called customers or users )fed up with the lack of action regarding scams and fraud that a new type of strike/ action is taking place

This sort of thing is unlikely to be seen by a number cruncher but will by those who use the site both .com and . wherever.
However users do not seem to like what they see. Listings ( both core and store) are down and in some cases people are doing their best to direct customers away from the site.
Number crunchers and analysts can see figures for sales etc but unless you are following the sellers unhappiness as eBay seem NOT to be . the stock seems to be overpriced.
Creative accounting also seems to be starting to be looked at by many people ( comment above regarding many sellers having 2 or more accounts is true ... i have 2 accounts 1 to buy 2 to sell )
I see a business that with a few tweaks could have generated good profits and strong future growth by having sellers and buyers giving it GOOD word of mouth but i now fear that a significant amount of the advertising budget next year will fall on deaf ears.

Ms Lambert,

If you are on eBay payroll,
When I get over there ... we 'gotta talk.

Gary