eBay after the bell 9-15-06: Upside or downside?

Melly, you make the obvious point well.

What the hell is going on? For every 'analyst' that trys to pump the price up, there's another trashing the stock.

Your post earlier that confirmed eBays unique page views were down by 10% year on year and, quite shockingly, 4% month on month tends to paint a picture that people are falling out of love with tired old eBay. They've got tubes and spaces to play with now.

They can dress the stats up all they like. If people are listing more (and accounting for more page views) then buyer activity must be a concern to sellers, obviously, but I would reckon management too.

Too many rip offs making the news maybe?

Upsetting too many sellers (many are probably buyers also)?

Whatever it is I'm pleased we got those independent page view numbers today. They're the first meaningful and trustable stats I've seen for months.

10% fewer unique page views on a site that has also increased its page numbers is awful news for eBay and I hope the management can see that.

These numbers seem to confirm why the sell thru rates are as poor as the sellers have been telling us. Then we have mass protests by users on top.

I reckon this guy has a real good point:

http://tinyurl.com/hl7qx

He's right, and not just for the sellers but the stockholders too, no more spin and pre-prepared selective marketing bs eBay, let's have some real answers to our concerns please.

Here is my take on the downturn of Ebay. I think it has alot to do with personal computers in homes. You have households that got them and those that didnt in the period of 2000 to 2005. I think alot of analysts cannot see past thier gated communities and assume that families just keep getting online,which is not true. These families that got online tried out Ebay in that period and either liked it or they didnt. The pie is getting smaller and Ebay has alot of competition nipping at thier feet for a piece of the pie and it will just get worse. I also see the specialized auction sites for collectors taking part of the pie in the future. Ebays dream was to be worldwide but I think auction sites will become more localized in the future because of shipping issues and anti American sentiment. The other countries will want a homegrown auction site. I agree with the smart stock analysts that 2007 will be a trying time for Ebay.

Everyone overanalyzes why Ebay's stock has gone down, and what will happen to it in the future. It's very simple; Ebay allows large sellers who provide them with significant income to ripoff people continuously. Customer service's Safe Harbor Department does absolutely nothing about thievery, shill bidding and any other activity that - if interrupted - would reduce Ebay revenue. Every single attempt made to have the rules enforced is met with Orwellian lies and deceipt. They carry on with this policy because it ensures they don't have to cutoff any streams of revenue and that they can therefore meet or come close to meeting Wall Street's projections for the quarter. Of course, in the longterm this policy has been a disaster as evryone with any significant exoerience buying on Ebay knows there's a good chance they will be ripped off, and that if they are scammed, Ebay will do absolutely nothing. Ebay goes after high profile ripoff artists and lets everyone in the media know all about it; but all regular Ebay users know that just PR. Ebay has one chance of salvation. It must stop cowering to Wall Street's quartely demands and just do a housecleaning of ALL sellers with a history of ripping people off. They need to couple that with a PR campaign announcing their new policy. Then, if they win the trust of the buyers back, items will start moving the way they should. The stock would take a big hit initially as the revenue dropped when the program would be instituted, but then you could see a long climb back towards 100. The fee increases don't matter if I sell product at a good enough rate. I can handle overhead going up, but I can't survive on Ebay if buyers give up on trusting Ebay sellers. Bottom line, Trust for buyers going up means the stock will inevitably go up. However, if trust keeps eroding the site has almost no future because there will be a tipping point where - the shoppers will decide that it's just become to stressful and risky to bother shopping on Ebay anymore. I got a note from a buyer yesterday who was absolutely shocked that he got a shipping confirmation number after he paid for an item (even though I have 800 positives feedbacks in a row). He said, "Thanks for shipping my -----, I thought I was going to get ripped off like everybody else who buys on Ebay". When the general public feels that way, the tipping point is near! Restore Trust in a big time public way or Perish. It's just that simple. JR

From here:
http://auctionbytes.com/cab/abu/y206/m09/abu0175/s01

and here:
http://www2.ebay.com/aw/in/200609151810442.html
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"Breaking news: eBay has just figured out how to further antagonize its US sellers at a time when they are already feeling misunderstood and abused. Sellers on eBay India will be able to list items on eBay.com at a special discount tomorrow.

eBay India is holding a 20-cent listing day for its sellers to sell on the US eBay.com site on September 18. To say that I don't think it will be well received by US buyers and sellers is an understatement.

This promotion shows that eBay management is either way out of touch with its members, or just doesn't care. It will likely be interpreted by US sellers as a way to boost listings on eBay.com at the end of the quarter for the benefit of Wall Street analysts."
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I vote for both... out of touch and don't care.

This charge sellers the full amount and give them a credit back some time in the future is a relatively new scheme. First half of this year and before the credits were usually instant, however there still have not been credits issued for Augusts "move stote items to core" listing sale. I'm sure it's yet another ploy they're using to fudge the numbers...

Melly,

Here's an upside to our own US eBay management: September 18, 2006, Indian sellers (ONLY) are allowed to list their 'wares' on the US eBay site for $.20. Again, only India...not US sellers (see eBay announcement boards). India has been awaiting this for months.

I don't believe a 'truly' US eBay exists for US sellers, any more.

I do believe this will assist many analysts in seeking the results they have been looking for on 'the upside': use the US site to attract more global countries, push out the actual US sellers who sell authentic items and deemed to pricey, and flood the US market with overseas knockoffs and junk at pennies on the dollar, only to create a superficial stock value and make the 'core' present itself as 'wholesome' to investors. How cool is that?

Man, these eBay management folk are good at what they do.

This has to be a prank...

http://auctionbytes.com/cab/abu/y206/m09/abu0175/s01

http://www2.ebay.com/aw/in/200609151810442.html

Tell me it is.

Are you serious? I just started reading this and came to this relization; I am an ebay seller and have found found my items to actually sell more A year ago from today.

The cost of all the ebay fees increasing have severely dipped into my cashflow. I have moved off ebay and have yet been more successful with my own web site. Lock It Up Safe.com

http://www.lockitupsafe.com

If I was a stockholder in eBay which I'm not thank goodness, I would be looking to get out as soon as possible. The share price has fluctuated a bit over recent weeks, probably more through manipulation by ebay buying back its stock than market confidence, but there is only so much that they can do on that front.

Will it be possible to squeeze another couple of dollars out of the battered price, or cut losses and run for cover now. Difficult choice.