Google has been moving up recently very nicely with the overall market; but I don't care what the upside potential is, it STINKS as an investment even if it goes to $1,000!
Today GOOG sank about 3% and was down as much as 7% during the day on another company's news. (Perhaps this was just profit taking?) Yahoo reported that its sales will be in the lower half of market guidance. See: Yahoo sees weakness, stock tumbles - CNNMoney
So the market penalized Google -- Why? What if the reason Yahoo! is doing poorly is because Google is doing so well? Perhaps it should have gone up, some more, instead of down. But it did not go up because of the skittish speculation in the stock. Can you imagine what would have happened if Google itself reported some earnings disappointment -- Lookout below!
How can anyone even call it an investment? It is pure speculation. Various analysts and prognosticators have continued to speculate about 12-month price targets based on their perceived revenue models. Google has such a relatively short history that there is little track record to rely upon. You know what I think of analysts, see:
Of course, analysts have had plenty to say recently; Cramer said that the stock should reach $500, as Brian White pointed out.
Why don't analysts disclose their personal and company holdings when they make these calls? Shouldn't we know if they are putting their money where their mouth is? If Jim Cramer thinks he can make a quick 20% why didn't he buy some? When Piper Jaffrey made the $600 call in January (and they trade on their own account) why didn't they load up on the stock if they thought they could make 50% in a year?! Maybe they did, or maybe it was a large scale pump and dump to bail out clients they advised to buy Google at the wrong time.
Almost every week Google is among the leaders in insider selling! If Warren Buffet was selling his Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) shares, would you be buying? Even at Ford (F) which has been pitiful this year, the Fords are not selling. But Google, that's a different story. The truth is GOOG may go up and speculators may make some money. But if you are an investor, this is not the place for you. By the way, during Google's recent move upward, so has Berkshire Hathaway, with a lot less risk! (BRK.A/B has outperformed GOOG over the last twelve months too!) Google is providing some great services and management has been wise to generally stay clear of the analysts hype by not offering guidance, for which they deserve credit as well.
Disclosure: I have no position in any company mentioned here, long or short, except for Berkshire Hathaway.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for Design and Research of an Architecture & Planning firm.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-20-2006 @ 10:11AM
Andy said...
Google is all about the future. Their strategy, their staffing and their management structure. They are the Berkshire Hathaway of the future. Board the train before it is too late.
9-20-2006 @ 10:55AM
Sheldon said...
Andy,
You drank the Google "Cool Aid". You are very hopeful, but have not added any insight into why Google has any merit, so not a serious investor. You comment indicates no knowledge of BRK.A or their history, as well.
Best of luck anyway.
9-20-2006 @ 2:55PM
Harvitpal Arora said...
Sheldon, unfortunatley for you, Andy is dead right. Think Salesforce.com and multiply that by a bagillion. You get Google. Google is not only an advertising platform, but tomorrow will provide an ecommerce, business intelligence, CRM, ERP, you name it platform. Organising the worlds information is so broad that they are not alluding to what they really want to achieve. Forget about the size of Microsoft and what Bill gates achieved. If network ubiquity, quality and openess continue to grow and getting connected become easier and cheaper; then you should be getting onto the Google train. It is a Berkshire Hathaway. I will not be suprised if Google has a dedicated private equities arm of its own in another 5 years.
Try to understand the tech market a bit better and good luck with your investing!
9-20-2006 @ 3:09PM
Sheldon said...
H.A.: Can you say pie in the sky?
I understand the tech market just fine. I understand you as well. You feel inspired by all of Googles possibilities, many you have listed. They are not realities yet. You are speculating they will come to pass with great certainty. I am not willing to invest in this dream stock while other investments are doing better with less risk. Imagine for a moment how you have represented yourself. You are willing to pay up now for the possibility that Google will be the greatest. Why? What if it falls short of your dreams of glory? No company is sacred. Anyone can falter. Most do. And perhaps in the next five years (or sooner), someone will out-google, Google!
9-21-2006 @ 2:28AM
harvitpal said...
Sheldon, when it comes to investing I have learn't that intuition pays big. I understand the Google platform and being a techie I understand what it means if you are able to organise the worlds information. Look at investing. What makes a good investor? Some one who can access and minimise risk when investing in high growth markets. How do you do that? Information. Now take this example and apply it to every aspect of life.
Why am i certain? Every great business is made up of building blocks (as is everything else in the world). Getting the right set of blocks to create a strong foundation are critical to building an empire of a business. Google is only player yet to focus and build the right building blocks and they continue to do so.
Examples to date: Best search tech and improving, best advertising platform and improving, infrustruture build outs to support traffic is world class and improving, moving into emerging markets and moving quickly and effectivly and improving and i can go on. What are the risks: Any company can run into problems especially a company that is growing at Googles rate. Eric has said Google has the same problems ever other company faces, but unlike you, I have faith in the current Google management. Network neutrality is probably the biggest threat to Google and the whole internet. Click fraud is a joke and drumbed up media Google bashing as is most of the negativity.
I am dumping my PC and moving to a mac. Google is my new office suite and i spend most of my time using Google as my point of entry into the internet.
Can some one out google Google. Yeah for sure, thats the beauty of technology. Let me know when you hear of of the next Google.
9-21-2006 @ 8:43AM
Sheldon said...
OK H.A.,
Some very valuable concepts...So at what price is it worth the risk...any price? Are you buying today? I would need it to drop by 20% before I would look at it seriously.
9-26-2006 @ 11:05PM
Ted said...
I wish more people had your sentiment, and would bash the stock down to the 370 bottom. Then I could load up on shares.
Your risk/reward analysis is focused on too short of a time frame. Yes, Google could release some bad news and drive its price down to let's say 340. However, this company alone stands to control the internet and information as no other company has.
If you look at the forward P/E of Google, it's like 40 compared to the 60 P/E they have now. That multiple just reflects next year. If you projected it out 5 years, I bet the P/E becomes even lower to the point of absurdity, even if the numbers are foggy. Do you have any reason to believe they aren’t going to make the numbers?
Management has taken Google to where it is today, and I see no evidence of storm clouds in their future. I believe they will make the numbers over the long-run, yet there are always bumps in the road. The bumps in the road are when you buy it. One day in the years to come, I believe Google may receive a P/E premium comparable to tech stocks in the late 90's. That would be the time to sell it; when Google's revenue growth has slowed and people are unrealistically positive, attempting to ride their favorite stock even higher as if rooting for their favorite baseball team.
But who knows, maybe I'm just a die-hard Cramer fan.