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If GOOG sinks GOOG stinks!

Google has been moving up recently very nicely with the overall market; but I don't care what the upside potential is, it STINKS as an investment even if it goes to $1,000!

Today GOOG sank about 3% and was down as much as 7% during the day on another company's news. (Perhaps this was just profit taking?) Yahoo reported that its sales will be in the lower half of market guidance. See: Yahoo sees weakness, stock tumbles - CNNMoney

So the market penalized Google -- Why? What if the reason Yahoo! is doing poorly is because Google is doing so well? Perhaps it should have gone up, some more, instead of down. But it did not go up because of the skittish speculation in the stock. Can you imagine what would have happened if Google itself reported some earnings disappointment -- Lookout below!

How can anyone even call it an investment? It is pure speculation. Various analysts and prognosticators have continued to speculate about 12-month price targets based on their perceived revenue models. Google has such a relatively short history that there is little track record to rely upon. You know what I think of analysts, see: Analyzing the Analysts - It's all a joke right?

Of course, analysts have had plenty to say recently; Cramer said that the stock should reach $500, as Brian White pointed out.

Cramer is not the only one. Google is starting to see analyst consensus in the $450 to $500 per share range for next year. Even I would say this is possible. On a percentage basis it is not that far off. But does that make it a worthy investment? What is the upside, versus the downside risk? To the upside we are hearing numbers that allow for a 10% to 20% gain from current levels. But if Google does not hit its top- and bottom-line sales and earnings numbers (based on analysts speculation; not company guidance), this stock could get cut by 30% to 40% fast.

Why don't analysts disclose their personal and company holdings when they make these calls? Shouldn't we know if they are putting their money where their mouth is? If Jim Cramer thinks he can make a quick 20% why didn't he buy some? When Piper Jaffrey made the $600 call in January (and they trade on their own account) why didn't they load up on the stock if they thought they could make 50% in a year?! Maybe they did, or maybe it was a large scale pump and dump to bail out clients they advised to buy Google at the wrong time.

Almost every week Google is among the leaders in insider selling! If Warren Buffet was selling his Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) shares, would you be buying? Even at Ford (F) which has been pitiful this year, the Fords are not selling. But Google, that's a different story. The truth is GOOG may go up and speculators may make some money. But if you are an investor, this is not the place for you. By the way, during Google's recent move upward, so has Berkshire Hathaway, with a lot less risk! (BRK.A/B has outperformed GOOG over the last twelve months too!) Google is providing some great services and management has been wise to generally stay clear of the analysts hype by not offering guidance, for which they deserve credit as well.

Disclosure: I have no position in any company mentioned here, long or short, except for Berkshire Hathaway.

Other recent articles:
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Dow Jones Utilities BEAT Industrials with ease!

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for Design and Research of an Architecture & Planning firm.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 03:01 PM

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