China continues to win the trade war happily accumulating our treasury notes which postpones our having to deal with our own internal spending problems. This extends their economic boom and they continue to move some of their U.S. Treasury notes (debt instruments) into our equity markets (buying our country at discount) which translates into stock purchasing and acquiring more American companies or controlling interest. This also enables them to enter our markets in areas they do not currently have a foothold. They have great incentive to do this; they have a lot more mouths to feed.

Oil & energy prices contribute to stock market gains coming and going. If oil prices continue to go down or horizontal (natural gas and oil both down now) then our economy will benefit and this supports the market. If they rise again then billions of dollars still enter our exchanges except there is a latent effect, which we are now experiencing, as money collected by foreign oil concerns works its way back into our markets -- No one will be buying Russian Treasury notes or entering their markets in any meaingful way, except for the biggest risk takers. A tremendous amount of this oil cartel money is really in the treasuries of foreign governments like Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and the like. This in turn allows them to have more influence over our corporate and government policy decision making process. I believe this to be true no matter what we hear from politicians and corporate America.

Housing has gone soft and Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) have crumbled. These big ticket items are heavily affected by interest rates and with both sectors limping along inflation looks less scary and the Federal Reserve will feel less pressure to raise short term interest rates. Lower rates have a very positive impact on the stock market and we are witnessing that now too.

Interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve Board are just as likely to go down as up, maybe even more so if I believe what I read these days in the financial soothsayer section of any business publication including ours. All of this should be taken with a grain of salt, for sure -- things can change fast!

Each 1,000 points in the Dow is getting easier to make. Remember, it's just numbers sometimes, and as a percentage the increase from 12,000 to 13,000 is only a 8.33% gain. This is less than the historic average annual gain and going from 13,000 to 14,000 is only a 7.9% gain -- These are not hard figures to accept especially when supported by my first four points.

The Stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the Dow or DJIA) have been building equity for over five years with little to show for it. Consider that General Electric (GE), Wal-Mart (WMT) and Microsoft (MSFT), as well as the the banks and phamaceuticals have done little to move the market which has been led by energy and commodities. However, the overall investing market has not appreciated the tremendous amounts of equity build-up over this time. Eventually all that equity has to translate into higher stock prices. We have been hearing for several years that the large caps are supposed to make their move leading the market upward but they have not-- They are due. I do not have to pick the day this will happen -- but it will happen!

So how long will all this take to play out? I figure the next 30 months. Sometime before the next president has to clean up after George W. Bush. And of this I am more certain than the Dow reaching 14,000. The next guy (or gal) be they Democrat, Republican, or Independent will have one heck of a mess to sort out. I am on record as believing that the world economy has a good chance of slowing after the Beijing Olympics in early 2009 (Global recession? Not until after Beijing Summer Olympics) which also coincides with our presidential inauguration.

Disclosure: I own shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) and do not own shares of any other company mentioned in this story.

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Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for Design and Research of an Architecture & Planning firm.