The Dow Jones Industrial Average made good today, reaching an all-time, best-ever, super-duper closing record of 11,727.34 -- just 5 points higher than the previous record of 11,722. But who's counting?
Well, everyone, and everyone from Wall Street to 39th Avenue (that's me) has an opinion about what that means. What to do now? Do you buy, when stocks are at their highest? Do you sell? And if you're buying, what do you buy?
I'll tell you what I'd do: steer very clear of index funds and other amalgams that track market trends. Whenever I hear the word "best-ever," or, "highest," I get spooked. But what I would buy are those stocks that have bucked the trend. That have far under-performed the rest of their Dow mates.
Let's look at Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), for instance. It's far under-performed the general average, down 48%, since the last high point -- the week of January 10, 2000, MSFT's high was $57.125, compared to today's close of $27.37, up only a penny in today's record-breaking day. That sounds like plenty of room to me, and it's the first thing I'd buy. The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD)? Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC)? AT&T, Inc. (NYSE:T)? All down between 40% and 60% since the record was set in early 2000. Buy the underperformers, steer clear of the index funds, and wait and see.
Update: I didn't read this post before I wrote my own (honest!) but Theflyonthewall.com says the exact same thing I do: buy the Dow dogs. He likes Microsoft and Home Depot, just like me, and also suggests Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK) and General Motors Corporation (NYSE:GM). What are you buying today?











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-03-2006 @ 8:00PM
BRIAN said...
WE ARE WITNESSING A JERRY FORD-STYLE BULL MARKET FROM 1975. A GRAND FAKEOUT DRIVEN BY TRADERS LURING SUCKERS INTO BUYING THOSE LARGE CAP CLUNKERS THEY'VE BEEN PUSHING FOR SIX YEARS. JUST ON THE EVE OF BUSH'S STAGFLATION INDUCED DEPRESSION.
AS SOON AS THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS ARE OVER DR. BERNANKE WILL BE RAISING INTEREST RATES REGARDLESS OF WHERE REAL ESTATE PRICES MIGHT BE.
HIS PREDECESSOR, ALLEN GREENSPAN, ENCOURAGED AMERICANS INTO THINKING THEY COULD USE THEIR HOMES AS PIGGY BANKS AND DRIVE THE AMERICAN ECONOMY. BUSH THINKS THE SAME WAY AND CALLED IT THE NEW REPUBLICAN PROSPERITY, BUT THE REPUBLICAN "GOOD TIMES" ARE TURNING INTO HERBERT HOOVER'S CHICKEN IN EVERY POT ROAD SHOW. NOBODY WITH A BRAIN OUTSIDE WALL STREET IS BUYING THIS ROUTINE, AND I HOPE THEY DON'T.
SO, GET SMART AND GET INTO TREASURIES, EMERGING MARKET SOVEREIGN DEBT, AND GOLD BULLION. THEN HOLD ON!!! IF YOU HAVEN'T SOLD YOUR INVESTMENT REAL ESTATE BY NOW, ITS PROBABLY TOO LATE.
10-03-2006 @ 8:16PM
RICHARD said...
THE GAS PRICES AND THE STOCK MARKET IS ALL A PLAY FOR THE REPUBLICANS. IF PEOPLE CAN'T SEE THAT, THEN I'AM SURE YOU VOTED FOR ARE SO CALLED PRSIDENT. IT ALL FOR THE RICH TO GET RICHER.
WHAT DO YOU THINK IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH PRICES AFTER THE FRIST OF THE YEAR?
10-03-2006 @ 7:23PM
albert said...
sigh!!!! I am just sitting back and enjoying the moment. I always think of the glass being half full..not always half empty like most liberals. Why make a big political issue out of good times..
ENJOY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
10-04-2006 @ 4:02AM
Gary E. Sattler said...
Hello friends!
Give yourselves a BIG pat on the back. You have shown your metal.
Now let's put the spurs to that pony!
Notice how Brian and Richard have to leave the caps lock on? Fellas, in keyboarding we call that yelling. If you need to yell to get your point across, "you ain't gonna make it with anyone anyhow".
My guess is that Wall street is hearing the babe in the woods. And it ain't George Bush! Sorry "Dubya" but this one's out of your hands... see the price of crude? We're going to actually rebuild a manufacturing base now... see if you guys can help out. Actually, just a bit of an interest rate hike right now wouldn't hurt... it makes domestic investment more attractive. Bypass conventional wisdom on interest rates. There's a way to win that game too!
Now, here's the gig:
We've shown that we're willing to move this money around. Smart placement is the key you know. I'll give you some generalities, some of my basic strategies and then I'll highlight a couple little gems I found. Understand folks, I have no vested interest in this information other than to see YOU succeed. I'm a "bit" player... bit of insight that is.
Those of you into raw logistics are in the driver's seat right now. It's time to put money behind the road fleet. Pierce Mfg., Appleton WI is a good place to get cutting edge information on "where" trucks are going. They build emergency and rescue vehicles on the largest scale. They know the field. They sell their wares world wide. They can point you in the right directions. All I can say for sure is that it's time to take a good hard look at the nation's truck fleet. Somehow I think we're missing the boat.
If you're a bit more in tune with "where the rubber hits the road", take a hard look at interstate fleet servicing, fueling, driver courtesy points, repair parts and lodging. These are all areas ripe for renewal and rebirth. We'll work on shattering taxes later. Yes, I'm saying that can be done.
Warehousing and distribution are looking for cash now. As the big box retailers begin to wane, W&D are looking for flexibility avenues. Fulfillment is the game at hand. Warehouses are becoming lively places. Pick-pack is the happening thing, ei: making little ones out of big ones. Find a niche where they are doing good and give them funds to increase floor space. We don't make money unless product moves. Facilitate it! It's mostly Chinese stuff right now. You see it on the coasts. If we get our asses in gear, we can turn a few of their freighters back at 'em and give them something to think about. It's high time we do that. Yes, I'm saying that can be done.
A couple of you must have a heart for the trains. Take a gander at the new diesel long hauls. Inform Canada we are taking our rails back... then make it happen. Either they'll work with us or they won't. Either way, they're our railways. We built them.
Take them back.
I'll keep the manufacturing bit short here or I'll be at this all night. Here's the list to think about, I'll tag my couple of pets on the end.
Communications Equipment:
Pay attention to RFID it's up and coming. They're trying to get their feet under themselves... help 'em out! Marry the technology with the need. Let's make physical inventory reconciliation a thing of the past.
There are fantastic opportunities with in house communications relating to order fulfillment. I'd start by looking at Crown Equipment, Bremen Ohio. Consider also, national defense,Internet, cell phones and HDTV (focus on the word wireless).
Electronic Instruments: It's a wide open field ...you're on your own.
I'm bucking the forecasters now by pointing at these few. I often see things at a different angle. It usually works for me.
Paper should be steady, if you can find something radical, give it a good look.
Motor vehicles look promising to me but only from the perspective of alternate fuels or something else really note worthy. I'd love to see someone bring GM's old Fisher body styles into this new world. Replacement parts look steady yet custom parts are slowing. Once again, if you can find some standouts use your gut instincts to decide if or where the money goes.
The big boys are saying that heavy machinery will pick up. They lean towards field equipment for oil, gas and construction. I just don't see it. It's probably safe money if you'd like to put some there, but if you're looking for some real dividends, demand that they show you the goods first.
Places I'd stay away from will raise some hefty eyebrows. I can't help what I see. I'll hold back on the details.
Pharmaceuticals are dangerous. There's going to be some banging on the FDA's door. I'd stay clear, if even just to protect my reputation.
Big retail is in upheavel, you saw the JC Penney downgrade. A word to the wise... the ground's going to start shaking. Hang with the smaller more mobile companies, especially those that specialize in catering to the customer. Be wary of those who are resisting the reality of the internet. You know of whom I speak.
You couldn't whip me into putting money into precious metals... unless they're cast as coins. Things are just too volatile right now, at least in the short term. I'd like my money more liquid, not for the sake of a quick exit but because I like the word "flow". With a growth and revitalization economy just starting, it's easy to just follow yourself into your next opportunity. I'm guessing that three years of in house development will float the construction industry until the next big wave of new construction.
My pets:
Automated Packaging Systems (www.autobag.com)
.....I'd help market their AB180 & AB255 Nice Stuff!
Omega Design Corp. (www.omegadesign.com)
.....Omega-Pak system... A gem being polished.
TCP Reliable (www.tcpreliable.com)
.....Reuseable thermal containment shippers in small case sizes. Help develop their market and watch this one fly!
That's about all I can do tonight but you know I could keep going. Review my text for the past couple weeks. There are other nice things to be found. Be kind to General Electric. They've had a hard time of late. They really are doing a good job. It's tough work staying on top!
Kick it in high gear gang. You've made a nice start. How long has it been since you've had two record days back to back?
Let's show the administration just who's in charge.
We've got some bureaucrat's butts to kick!
Now get to it!
Blessings to ALL
Gary