With the DJIA at record levels in the last two weeks, are stocks the "in thing" to have in an investment portfolio for making money of providing for retirement savings? That sentence was about as lame as a, well, duck -- because the immense amount of variables that goes into a solid financial plan these days does not just look at the stock market's recent performance for any kind of guarantee on present or future performance. Some of us remember who lost their shirts in the crash of 2001-2002 and even 1987. See that graph above? Look at September 2001 -- that gives many of us pause when it comes to thinking how our portfolios were arranged at that time.
So, the argument of the day again comes to trust in the DJIA's highest-ever levels. As I'm writing this, the average is peaking at 11,863. What's in an average, so to speak? This great article over at SeekingAlpha pretty much summed things up about how the DJIA can take a piece of news -- seemingly any news -- and draw conclusions that have no hope of ever being proven.
After all, the market is based on such heavy speculation every day (crystal ball syndrome), that it's rare to see an investor take a long-term view of the markets, the U.S. and global economy and the litany of other factors that can cause incredible gains over the long term. I think Warren Buffett, however, knows something about this. So how does this writer feel about the DJIA? In his words, "I am now more convinced than ever that the Dow is the most useless, overused tool on the planet!"
One of the best points I've heard many times before is reiterated here -- "The Dow is 'price weighted,' meaning that weightings are determined based on the selling price of each stock, not the value of the company." Well spoken and well said.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-10-2006 @ 4:21PM
kevin leo said...
It's the easiest to manipulate and frankly this un confirmed rise (S&P500 and NASDAQ lag) is an attempt to get the 'fish' jumping. Real Estate is supposedly not sexy anymore so Wall Street thinks in can lure capital again from individual investors. Wall Street stomped on these investors in 2000-2002 and gave their taking to hedge funds for more shenanigans. Now we hear about stock options backdating rigging compsenation for CEOs while investors are sitting with dead money stock. The jig is up for Wall Street boys and public company CEOs; have fun with Amaranth, Vega and the like. You had your chance to come clean. No indvidual investor is gonna jump to you for your 2006 bonus attainment--Even if you try free trading fees as some brogkerages are now so desperate to launch!
10-10-2006 @ 5:18PM
Dan Barnett said...
But "record" DOW closings certainly make good news reports for those facing the voters.
10-11-2006 @ 1:56AM
Mr. noitall said...
I agree with Kevin's comments. During the time (years 2000-2002), while individual investors were taking a pounding in the stock market, executives at many of these companies were backdating options for themselves, making sure they didn't lose money like "their" investors were. I think the individual investor should be extremely cautious about the stock market in general. The "buy & hold" theory has been sold to the American public. As I've said before it's a theory that is seriously flawed.
10-15-2006 @ 10:03AM
Jon said...
I don't get your point.
Are you saying the DJIA is rigged in some way that it does not reflect the real performance of a long term investment?
You can buy EFT's that track DJIA and get the same performance.