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Natural Gas: Ready for a Rebound

Although oil continues to take a pounding, trading below $58 a barrel, natural gas has bounced strongly over the past week, up 6% today alone. A number of leading newsletter advisors have been adding natural gas-related stocks to their buy lists in anticipation of a rebound.

The key signal for Adrian Day, editor of The Global Analyst, occurred last week when he saw select natural gas stocks hold up even while gas prices continued to slide. Seeing this divergence, he told his subscribers, "It's now time to buy."

His top pick in the sector is EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG), one of the largest independent gas exploration and production firm in North America. He considers the stock cheap at 10 times earnings and 6 times cash flow.

Says Adrian, "I like EOG because management has managed to increase production year by year through the drill bit. Its balance sheet is super strong (10% debt to assets), resisting the constant call to spend the money on an expensive acquisition." Overall, he says, "In terms of quality, it's at the top."

Daniel Frishberg, editor of TheMoneyMan.com Gold & Oil Portfolio, says, "The bloodbath in the oil and gas market may be coming to an end."

While admitting that investing in this sector is akin to catching a falling knife, he has taken a new position in Precision Drilling Trust (PDS NYSE), an open-ended investment trust that provides drilling and oilfield services in Canada.

To Daniel, the biggest attraction of Precision is its 10% dividend. He explains, "Owning PDS lets us benefit from Canadian currency appreciation, potentially raising natural gas prices and low tax rates on dividend distributions."

He has also taken a position in XTO Energy (NYSE:XTO), which explores for oil and gas in the US. He notes the stock has fallen along with energy prices, "even though they had hedged their business at much higher gas prices."

S.R. Nunnally in Dynamic Market Alert points out that a decline in gas prices in the summer and rebound during colder months is the normal seasonal pattern. Nunnally notes, "My favorite natural gas play - National Fuel Gas Co. (NYSE: NFG) - is at the bottom of its uptrend; I'm expecting a bounce as natural gas prices begin their rise into winter."

Neil Macneale has just added a position in natural gas to his 2-for-1 newsletter, but not based on any attempt to time the market or forecast the direction of gas prices. Rather, he has a unique approach to investing; each month he chooses a single buy candidate from among those stocks that have announced a stock split.

His latest such buy is Crosstex (NASDAQ: XTXI). The company is involved in "behind the scenes" work in the natural gas sector, collecting, purifying, and transporting natural gas from the wellhead to larger utilities and industrial customers. Says Macneale, "The company will have revenue whether the price of gas is up or down."

Steven Halpern is editor of The Stock Advisors, a guide to financial newsletters.

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Last updated: December 04, 2008: 10:04 PM

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