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Yahoo? Time to change the exclamation to a question mark?

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As you all know, Yahoo! reported third quarter results yesterday after the bell. I won't bore with you with a repetition of the results (you can also check the liveblog of the webcast with my very own colorful remarks, or the drier, albeit fuller version, of the webcast transcript). We all know the highlights:

  • revenue came in below analysts estimates of $1.15 billion at $1.12 billion.
  • profit dropped by (an expected) 37% to $158.5 million, or 11 cents per share.
  • Q4 forecast was lowered to $1.15 billion and $1.27 billion, while analysts were expecting $1.3 billion. Reason - advertising revenue weakness due to advertisers' own problems and more alternatives available.
  • Panama is finally live. Surprisingly, even though Panama was scheduled for Q4, the market almost seemed to have expected another delay, so this was a sort of a nice surprise.
  • after using up the $3 billion allocated to share repurchase, an additional $3 billion are now allocated for share buyback.
  • 3 pronged strategy: social media, video and mobile access

For a while, investors couldn't decide if they liked the results or not and the stock seesawed up and down until it finally settled on 'down' today (probably also due to a stock downgrade from Piper Jaffray).

I was trying to figure out whether Yahoo! had indeed addressed the concerns I had brought up before the earnings.

  1. Deals - I was just as unimpressed as Douglas McIntyre was with Yahoo!'s decision to use their cash for a repurchase program rather than have a better, more firm and focused acquisition plan.
  2. Advertising revenue - many, many analysts questions revolved around this issue. Why is the revenue weaker? What does Yahoo! see going forward? Is it a market trend? Bottom line answer from Yahoo! - In addition to the weakness in the autos and financial services sectors, there are also more alternatives with low cost inventory in the market. My take - okay, I'll accept on face value the first reason -- companies' specific problems in autos and financials -- but I'll also call a spade a spade - more alternatives means Yahoo!'s got serious competition and is losing market share.
  3. Lowering Q4 targets - unfortunately, I called it. I was afraid this would happen and I said that if it did we'll see a very negative day for YHOO stock on Wednesday. Shares are down nearly 4%.
  4. Panama. I know, the bulls must be chanting pa-na-ma, pa-na-ma, and while I may not be so bearish on Yahoo!'s outlook, I say that Panama is about four years too late. Okay, two. Sure, as I said, Panama does matter and it's better late than never, and Panama will affect revenue going forward, and Panama should renew investors' and clients' confidence, and, and, and... But at the end of the day, as far as we know, Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) could tomorrow roll out the next new thing they've been working on the past four years while Yahoo! was playing catch-up, and then what?!

So, bull or bear? I believe that in the short-term Yahoo! stock will suffer. It might not even get better until there was a significant management change. I don't care how disappointed Semel was with the company's he's heading results; that's just it, he's the guy in charge. Long-term, however, Yahoo!, with its strong presence and strong verticals, has potential as long as it knows how to capitalize on its strong suits and assets.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 02:05 AM

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