Someone came up with the term "negative growth" because the word "shrinking" seemed too mundane. No matter. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) is very close to shrinking and negative growth here, in its home market. After saying it might grow 2% to 4%, then recently revising the figure down to 1.3%, Wal-Mart could only muster a 0.5% same-stores sales growth figure. For all we know, this could be revised downward later as Wal-Mart did in another recent month.
Despite revamped stores and discounting holiday goods, Wal-Mart may be reaching the end of its growth phase in the U.S.. It may simply have too many stores, too much market share, and too much competition from other large retailers like Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT). There are, of course, large online retailers like Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), which did not even exist a decade ago.
According to the company's 10-Q, in its last full quarter Wal-Mart's international sales grew from $14.2 billion last year to $18.6 billion this year. That's 32% growth compared to 6% growth in the U.S.. While internationally, operating income grew from $799 million to $977 million, Wal-Mart's U.S. stores operating income was over $4 billion, so international has a ways to go to catch up. But, it will have to.
Since Wal-Mart has exited the South Korean and German markets, overseas growth may be a lot tougher.
Regardless, the "negative growth" may be starting for the huge retailer's US operations.
Douglas McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-30-2006 @ 6:38PM
Shareholder Mike said...
That's a bit of a stretch don't you think Doug?
After all even .5% comp sales is still an increase in half a percent over last year. (and last October, if you remember, was a pretty lousy month for the company as well)
But hey, if the entire company had a yearly comp increase of .05% we're still talking about a 15.6 billion dollar increase in sales. Hardly chump-change. (What are Target's annual sales again?)
And - as an aside - how many times does Wal-Mart have to ask analysts to look at market-share along with comp sales before someone does it???
The basis of your blog was that Wal-Mart simply had no more room to grow in the domestic market. I think that is an oversimplification. A more accurate statement might be that Wal-Mart has run out of places to grow EASILY in the domestic market. Without a doubt the urban markets are an untapped gold-mine. (regardless of what the politicians and unions say, low-income inner city families will welcome jobs and low-cost shopping). Other store formats such as the Sams Club and Neighborhood market have also only scratched the surface. But the folks in Bentonville are smart. No point in growing simply for the sake of growing. Sometimes it makes more sense to get the ship on course and then push the throttles back up.
Now as a shareholder, do the decline in same-store-sales concern me? Well, yes and no. On the one hand (to continue the nautical analogy) Wal-Mart is a big ship and it takes some time to turn. Store remodels, "store-of-the-community", and other such programs will take some time to yield results. Between now and the end of the year the company will be distracted by the holiday shopping season (along with the ever present distractions of the union-paid-critics), so I doubt we'll see sweeping changes until the new year.
On the other hand I believe that the company needs to find its roots in merchandising. They've brought in so much "talent" from other organizations that I can't help but wonder if they have lost some of the Wal-Mart culture (read: Sam Walton - Made in America) that made the company what it is. I think it is important to get back to Sam's way of doing business. One product at a time. One store at a time. Merchandising and customer service above all else. That means coming down on store managers -- not only to control expenses, but to enhance the customer's shopping experience. Expense control will only get you half way there.
So do I agree with your blog? Not at all. There is plenty of room for continued expansion in the US market for Wal-Mart, Sam's Club, Neighborhood Market. Do I think that growth will be easy or cheap? No way. So take a year, shore up the hull, put some money in the bank and then... damn the torpedoes! Full speed ahead!
-Shareholder Mike
10-30-2006 @ 11:09AM
douglas mcintrye said...
The trend has been moving against the company for awhile now, so I can't agree with you.
And, yes, I think their US expansion may be over.
Same store speak volumes.
10-30-2006 @ 10:15PM
john said...
shareholder mike you sound very versed in walmart terminology and planning for the future. i feel your perception may be somewhat biased. walmart is continually chasing that illusive target shopper and i think in the process forgetting who and what made them the company they are or were. just by their huge size when walmart burps the country feels it. isnt it time that walmart goes back after their core customer that made them great and leave the trendy customer to that other retailer from france. after all what is the majority of people in the us. low to middle class....not middle class to high class