Shares of Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ:WFMI) tumbled more than 23% by midday in heavy trading to $46. Indications of this happening could already be seen yesterday in after-hours and this morning in pre-market trading as WFMI shares lost more than 17%.
Organics are bad for you, financially
Whole Foods $100 million stock buyback
Yesterday, the organic and natural foods retailer reported earnings of $39.8 billion, or 28 cent per share, a significant rise from last year's $9 million or 6 cents a share. Revenues also rose from $1.12 billion in the same period last year to $1.29 billion. Analysts were expecting $1.32 billion. Also same-stores sales rose 8.6%, but that is after a good run of double digits growth. To top it all, the company warned of slower growth in sales next year.
So despite what may sound as good growth for a retailer, it doesn't come close to the growth rate WFMI has experienced so far. It is also below what analysts had expected and worse, the outlook for 2007 is below estimates as well. This has caused analysts to warn that slowing consumer spending combined with tougher competition from mainstream grocery stores (remember even Wal-mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) is now getting into organics) could squeeze Whole Foods. Alas, no more double-digit same-store sales figures in the foreseeable future.
Already B of A cut rating from "buy" to "neutral" and lowered the target price from $77.50 to $43. Morgan Stanley cut its price target on WFMI from $70 to $63.
If this continues, I wonder whether WFMI would cut prices enough for more people to shop there.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
11-03-2006 @ 4:12PM
r said...
Great markets to shop, quality food. You would expect to pay a premium but the premium is too high. I shop there now only for special events.
11-04-2006 @ 1:00PM
bill nelson said...
The funny thing is- I live in the Chicago area, and normally do most of my shopping at Whole Foods. The other day, I stopped at a Dominicks, a convential supermarktet, and bought 3 things- an organic apple, some pom juice,and one other juice. I went to Whole Foods the next day, and guess what? All 3 items were cheaper at Whole Foods- that Pom juice was $2 cheaper! And that wasn't a sale price. The idea that WF is more expensive isn't really accurate, in my opinion. You pay more for quality, and in my case, you can actally save money and get better quality at the same time at WF. I don't think it's true on every item, but it's true on many, when your comparing the same items.
11-06-2006 @ 2:04PM
Josiah Leet said...
Metro shoppers ("city" folk) are blessed with a surfeit of shopping choices. Where they will shop and how much they will pay etc. etc. Farmers Markets (in season) are excellent for produce, and for face-time with grower/farmers. WholeFoods can be a "deal" if you shop wisely...it need not ever be the "only" market one uses. Lower prices generally lead to lowered expectations...I needn't name names of the "bottom feeder" supermarkets since even suburban customers have a wide variety of food shopping options these days. The urban (ex-urban) customer should not let 'perception' be their counsel...try them all, find what you like. We are blessed with an abundance of food choices in this country, and we cannot ask the farmers to grow it for free, can we ?
11-09-2006 @ 3:24PM
Larry said...
I don't think walmart will make a dent in whold foods customer base. Only place I can find natural stress medicine products, and the organic veggies are grand!
11-09-2006 @ 3:45PM
Gary said...
As a former employee, I can see that the stock would be down, and probably will be down even further soon. A great place to work, I could see the fast growth first hand and notice the pace of expansion was way to great to deal with in many ways-locations, logistics and personel. The whole team concept was to push and profit without a much thought other than rich people like us and we encompass a "feel good" strategy to get there smoothly. However, 10 billion dollar per year companies need more than that in this marketplace to expand profitably.
11-09-2006 @ 3:59PM
debbie said...
Some people in the Orlando area drive miles to shop at whole foods. Why? Quality. I do not know about whole foods in other areas, but the Orlando store (winter park) sometimes offers fresh organic produce from local crops, shopping there can be an adventure depending upon what local produce comes in. As far as prices, there are many items that cost far less at whole foods than publix. Besides, whole foods offers many different organic brands compared to your big chain stores.
11-09-2006 @ 4:08PM
Carol Araneo-Mayer said...
Whole Foods is a wonderful company. They donate so much to charity. I shop there not only for their wonderful foods but because the company is so giving.
11-09-2006 @ 4:36PM
Scott Parsons said...
Stocks go up, stocks go down. Sounds like an investment opportunity to me!
If you want to eat whole foods, buy rice, and beans,and grains in the dry form, and veggies, and fruits in their natural, unprocessed form, and make something delicious at home!
We teach a class on food and lifestyle, and for last night's class we made a wonderful ethnic dish from South Asia, Channa Masala. The cost was 45 cents per person in the class. Retail value would have been about 5.99 for lunch or 8.99-14.99 if it were dinner.
There's profit in whole foods when you cook at home. Dig that crock pot out of the closet and put it to work. You'll have lots more money to invest in stocks, or vacations, or running shoes, or vitamins...
11-09-2006 @ 5:18PM
Stephen Fuchs said...
From New Jersey to Honolulu, we Americans buy our pizza by the slice. In their infinite marketing wisdom, Whole Foods has decided to make their customers pay for pizza...by the pound. No, thanks!
11-09-2006 @ 5:30PM
Grant Armstrong said...
What's wrong with this picture? Here's a company with a healthy growth in sales and profits, including realistic expectations for their own future. But the "analysts" on Wall Street expected more, so they dis the stock and it takes a nosedive. Then you ask if they're going to cut their prices? I hope they're smart enough to set product prices based on their customers and competition, not on the baseless opinions of Wall Street fools. Now repeat this scenario for all public stocks, and it's clear there's a big disconnect between Wall Street and the real world. Stock trading is just legalized gambling. Companies should set their goals on customers, employees, and products, and charge forward. Forget the "analysts" - if you do your job right, the stock price will take care of itself.
11-09-2006 @ 7:29PM
Mom said...
The sad truth is that the government subsidizes the factory farm industries to the tune of billions of dollars, making organic much less competative than it would be on an even playing field. If you pulled out those subsidies, hamburgers at McDonalds would jump to triple the price, factory eggs would be just slightly lower than free-range, and the whole picture would change radically. The consumers at the bottom rarely think about the politics at the top that determines the prices and availability of what they want to buy. These corporate behemoths believe in the market driving the price of food--as long as they don't have to compete in it!
11-09-2006 @ 8:01PM
Sandy said...
I "whole"heartedly agree with "Mom"...the government is not our friend in many respects, but especially when it comes to health. It would be great if they actually started to shape legislation and policies around what's best for the CONSUMER, rather than placating monster companies like Monsanto and the various industries (cough--sugar--cough--pharmaceutical--cough cough cough) so we could live quality lives longer...
11-10-2006 @ 10:11AM
Dan said...
I have a company that contacted Whole Foods about carrying our products. After months of phone calls, sending samples, etc., I received a form letter in the mail that had a box checked: Too many sku's in the category. Whole Foods doesn't even carry a product like ours. I think irresponsible Buying and lack of vision by Management also play into the company's pending failure.
11-09-2006 @ 10:45PM
Unlisted said...
What I don't like about Whole Foods is their corporate culture that sends out the message that "healthful" and "socially conscious" means "politically liberal."
One can be a political and social conservative AND be a vegetarian (and a non-animal-rights person)and choose to eat and live healthfully.
All the publications they sell in their stores, except for gourmet-type food magazines, have a politically-left wing point of view.
I also hate the idea that so many of the WF employees look like leftover hippies from the '60s.
WF won't sell products injected with artificial dyes because it's unhealthful and undesirable, but they allow their employees to sport tattoos. The employees also generally have a very laid-back, inefficient attitude about customer service.
11-09-2006 @ 10:26PM
Reeny said...
Organic foods don't cost much more to produce, but the land on which it is grown is the premium. With the demand growing and the number of suppliers trying to get in on the organics market growing, the supply of crop land is rarer each day. That is why companies like (well, I won't name names) that sells organic yogurt, buys their milk in the powdered form from overseas to meet the demand for the organic milk. The extra expanse of shipping the milk alone is driving prices up. If all farms went organic (which would take years and a lot of money just to certify) the prices would eventually level off. For now, I buy my produce from local growers, my poultry from ouir local Amish farmers, and the rest from the regular ol' supermarket. Whole Foods is a luxury item with a high sticker price.
11-09-2006 @ 10:44PM
Carol said...
Everyone aruging about organic food and healthy eating is missing the point. Its business. R (and others) are right, it has NOTHING to do with organic. Its the high price and other grocers cutting in their market share. Not all their prices are high, its just a pain in the duppa to deal with them. In CO, their choices of real estate are difficult, parking is a chore. I get cumbersome parking and I pay more for it. I shop in only two of their stores in CO, because of parking. But I shop. Others have stated other policies (pizza by the #???) that are just bad business.
Walmart is nothing in this picture as far as competition. It OPENS the market. Their produce is disgusting and anyone who knows what they are buying doesn't shop there. Their competitors welcome them. It opens the market because everyone is talking about it. And that, in true guerrilla marketing is where the kaching is.
11-09-2006 @ 10:44PM
Tom said...
Many of the items at Whole Foods are very affordable compared to their conventional counterparts and the organics at Wal-Mart don't seem to be priced any lower from what I've seen. Plus I find everything I could possibly want at Whole Foods, it's an awesome grocery store.
In response to mentioning the "hippy style" kids at Whole Foods, I'd like to say that I have found the ones at my Whole Foods to have a beautiful attitude and to be very helpful and willing to put in extra effort. If you give them dirty looks for their body art, then maybe you get a different result.
I'm not liberal politically, but I've never felt any pressure to be liberal while shopping at Whole Foods. I've only found great food and lot's of shiny happy people.
This sounds like a good opportunity to buy their stock. My friends and family have been increasingly shopping at Whole Foods because of the awesome food I turn them on to from there.
11-09-2006 @ 10:47PM
Carol said...
PS-- I am a sales trainer and love seeing those green lines point up. Whole Foods is such an easy fix.
11-09-2006 @ 10:47PM
Unlisted said...
BTW, WFMI was selling for over $100/share not too long ago and finally split, but not after carrying that per-share price tag for a long time!
11-09-2006 @ 10:53PM
LISA D said...
I LOVE WHOLE FOODS AND EVERYTHING ABOUT IT. NOWADAYS PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR GOOD, HEALTHY QUALITY
PRODUCTS ALONG WITH THE WHOLE SHOPPING EXPERIENCE. WF IS NOT FOR EVERYONE NOR SHOULD IT BE. I AGREE WITH THEIR CONCEPT AND I LIKE THAT THEY PROMOTE THE
TEAM. I SHOP IN BELLINGHAM MA MOSTLY FOR THE PRODUCE DEPT AND THE WONDERFUL EMPLOYEES IN THAT DEPT. KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!