Profiting from the Bush military industrial complex

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The current administration's stock market performance is likely to be a prouder legacy than the one which it will leave in Iraq. Nevertheless, as of yesterday, it is at the bottom of the last ten administrations -- just below that of Richard Nixon. Here are the presidents ranked from best to worst in terms of average annual S&P 500 returns during their tenure:

  • Bill Clinton: +17.40%
  • Gerald Ford: +17.00%
  • Harry Truman: +15.60%
  • Dwight Eisenhower: +14.90%
  • Ronald Reagan: +14.40%
  • George H. W. Bush: +14.40%
  • John Kennedy: +12.40%
  • Jimmy Carter: +11.20%
  • Lyndon Johnson: +10.20%
  • Richard Nixon: +0.60%
  • George W. Bush: +0.56%

But this administration's S&P 500 performance masks the enormous stock market benefits resulting from its Industrial Policy -- the application of national leadership to favor specific industries. By betting correctly on which industries a new leader's policies will help, investment opportunities could emerge. To that end, in May 2001, I began to think about which industries would benefit from an oil man in the White House. This led to the W-Industrial Complex (WIC) Index which tracks stocks in the energy, defense, conservative media, and high-end retailing industries.

The WIC index has dramatically outperformed the S&P 500. However, due to a recent decline in oil and natural gas prices, it peaked in August 2006 and is now 16 percentage points below its high. Here are some recent WIC levels as measured between January 29, 2001 and the dates listed as compared to the performance of the S&P 500 during the same period:

  • June 2005: +101%, -13%
  • September 2005:+153%, -8%
  • January 2006:+175%, -3%
  • August 2006:+184%, -5%
  • November 2006:+168%, +3%

Though below its peak, the WIC's 168% return is quite formidable when compared to the 3% increase in the S&P 500. Here are the three best stocks in the index:

  • Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO): +550%
  • Arch Coal, Inc. (NYSE: ACI): +391%
  • Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE: BTU): +370%

And here are the three weakest performers:

  • BP plc (ADR) (NYSE: BP): +52%
  • The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA): +63%
  • Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC): +73%

Since January 2001, government policy -- including wars and tax cuts -- has helped increase the factors that drive profitability for the WIC companies which include:

What's next? With the current administration trying to salvage its legacy and numerous members of congress positioning themselves for 2008, it's hard to see where significant changes will take place in the next two years. One thing seems clear, though-- when the time is right it could be profitable for investors to figure out the next administration's industrial policy.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm, and a Professor of Management at Babson College. He has no financial interest in Arch Coal, Boeing, BP, Northrop Industries, Peabody Coal, or Valero.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+150.2510,058.64
NASDAQ+24.822,150.87
S&P 500+13.781,070.52

Last updated: February 10, 2010: 01:35 AM

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