The current administration's stock market performance is likely to be a prouder legacy than the one which it will leave in Iraq. Nevertheless, as of yesterday, it is at the bottom of the last ten administrations -- just below that of Richard Nixon. Here are the presidents ranked from best to worst in terms of average annual S&P 500 returns during their tenure:
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Bill Clinton: +17.40%
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Gerald Ford: +17.00%
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Harry Truman: +15.60%
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Dwight Eisenhower: +14.90%
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Ronald Reagan: +14.40%
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George H. W. Bush: +14.40%
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John Kennedy: +12.40%
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Jimmy Carter: +11.20%
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Lyndon Johnson: +10.20%
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Richard Nixon: +0.60%
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George W. Bush: +0.56%
But this administration's S&P 500 performance masks the enormous stock market benefits resulting from its Industrial Policy -- the application of national leadership to favor specific industries. By betting correctly on which industries a new leader's policies will help, investment opportunities could emerge. To that end, in May 2001, I began to think about which industries would benefit from an oil man in the White House. This led to the W-Industrial Complex (WIC) Index which tracks stocks in the energy, defense, conservative media, and high-end retailing industries.
The WIC index has dramatically outperformed the S&P 500. However, due to a recent decline in oil and natural gas prices, it peaked in August 2006 and is now 16 percentage points below its high. Here are some recent WIC levels as measured between January 29, 2001 and the dates listed as compared to the performance of the S&P 500 during the same period:
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June 2005: +101%, -13%
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September 2005:+153%, -8%
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January 2006:+175%, -3%
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August 2006:+184%, -5%
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November 2006:+168%, +3%
Though below its peak, the WIC's 168% return is quite formidable when compared to the 3% increase in the S&P 500. Here are the three best stocks in the index:
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Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO): +550%
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Arch Coal, Inc. (NYSE: ACI): +391%
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Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE: BTU): +370%
And here are the three weakest performers:
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BP plc (ADR) (NYSE: BP): +52%
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The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA): +63%
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Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC): +73%
Since January 2001, government policy -- including wars and tax cuts -- has helped increase the factors that drive profitability for the WIC companies which include:
- Oil price: +150% to $60/bbl
- Coal price: +40% to $43/ton
- Natural gas: +89% to $7.16/MMBtu
- Defense budget: +37% to $419 billion
What's next? With the current administration trying to salvage its legacy and numerous members of congress positioning themselves for 2008, it's hard to see where significant changes will take place in the next two years. One thing seems clear, though-- when the time is right it could be profitable for investors to figure out the next administration's industrial policy.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm, and a Professor of Management at Babson College. He has no financial interest in Arch Coal, Boeing, BP, Northrop Industries, Peabody Coal, or Valero.



Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-09-2006 @ 7:29PM
waldo murphy said...
mr. cohan's column shows how raw material sometimes should be tempered by analysis lest if give the wrong impression. when president clinton left office, he left with a recession underway and the stock market tanking. after the bush tax cuts were finally passed, the market (s&p)finally stabilized at around 850 and then started up.
11-09-2006 @ 9:10PM
Mr. noitall said...
I think it's o.k. to be a Democrat or Republican or anything else, as long as you have some common sense. Readers have to realize that Peter Cohan is an anti Bush / anti Republican fanatic. When Peter writes an article that mixes his political beliefs with his financial advice his brain malfunctions and he begins to suffer from temporary insanity. Maybe when election time comes around Peter gets so worked up that he forgets to take his medication. I hope he will get better now that the election is behind us.
Waldo, you are right in pointing out Peter's "W-Industrial Complex Index" as being pure propaganda. During the time span that Peter selected many other sectors did well, not just oil, gas, & defense. What about realestate? Emerging markets? gold, silver other metals and commodities? As far as individual stocks, Apple, Starbucks did quite well, Wal-Mart, GE not too good,(explain that?) also, as you pointed out Waldo, many sectors and stocks got hammered during 2001 & 2002, but have recovered tremendously since then. Was this the result of a G.W. Bush flip-flop? Peter's Index and article should be recognized as the propaganda that it is. It has no value and is not based on rational thought.
11-10-2006 @ 8:56AM
Gaetan Roy said...
When this reader talks of Peter Cohan's brain malfunction, I invite him to look in the mirror as a brain washed Republican that he seems to be. The last crop of Republicans since and including Reagan have maskaraded all their policies towards swinging the wealth toward the wealthiest while slowly but surely ruining the middle class. Especially George W. Bush. Our reader should remember that the economy any economy is fed by the middle class, not on credit cards like recently, but on real wages. So, instead of minuscule tax cuts to the middle class and large ones to the wealthiest of wealthiest, George W. should have done it the other way around, and this way, the middle class feeds the economy and the corporations owned by the wealthiest and everybody is happy, contrary to what it is now, where the middle class is hurting and the Stock Market(mostly in the hands of the wealthiest) is going sideways, except for Oil and Defense stocks. This is how you see things when you do not have a Republican agenda brainwashed/hardwired in your head.
11-29-2006 @ 7:11PM
Ken Larson said...
You make many good points in your article. I would like to supplement them with some information:
I am a 2 tour Vietnam Veteran who recently retired after 36 years of working in the Defense Industrial Complex on many of the weapons systems being used by our forces as we speak.
If you are interested in a view of the inside of the Pentagon procurement process from Vietnam to Iraq please check the posting at my blog entitled, “Odyssey of Armements”
The Pentagon is a giant,incredibly complex establishment,budgeted in excess of $500B per year. The Rumsfelds, the Adminisitrations and the Congressmen come and go but the real machinery of policy and procurement keeps grinding away, presenting the politicos who arrive with detail and alternatives slanted to perpetuate itself.
How can any newcomer, be he a President, a Congressman or even the Sec. Def. to be - Mr. Gates- understand such complexity, particulary if heretofore he has not had the clearance to get the full details?
Answer- he can’t. Therefor he accepts the alternatives provided by the career establishment that never goes away and he hopes he makes the right choices. Or he is influenced by a lobbyist or two representing companies in his district or special interest groups.
From a practical standpoint, policy and war decisions are made far below the levels of the talking heads who take the heat or the credit for the results.
This situation is unfortunate but it is ablsolute fact. Take it from one who has been to war and worked in the establishment.
This giant policy making and war machine will eventually come apart and have to be put back together to operate smaller, leaner and on less fuel. But that won’t happen unitil it hits a brick wall at high speed.
We will then have to run a Volkswagon instead of a Caddy and get along somehow. We better start practicing now and get off our high horse. Our golden aura in the world is beginning to dull from arrogance.