The housing market got some more bad news recently. A new report from the Commerce Department Nov. 17 reported a dramatic decline in the construction of new single-family homes and apartments during October.According to the report, construction of new single family homes and apartments fell 14.6% from their September level to an annual rate of 1.486 million units. The market has not seen a percentage decline this steep for the last 19 months; we're not back to the activity levels of July 2000.
We are still going to have to play the waiting game to find out if the housing slowdown is going to be enough to pull America into a recession, but it is surely going to be something to contend with over the next year. We have already started to see the impact during July through September when economic growth came in at a 1.6% percent rate. The weakening housing market was blamed for shaving a full percentage off the rate.
But on a brighter note, the report indicates that builder sentiment has risen for the last two months -- so hopefully we are seeing at least a leveling-off in the housing market, and we are not looking ahead towards a more dramatic downside. However, new building permit applications fell again for the eighth straight month by 6.3%.
This year's activity during October was 27.4% lower than October last year, mostly led by a weakening in the South which saw new construction fall 26.4%. The Midwest had a drop of 11.7% and the West fell 2.1%. The situation in the Northeast was the anomaly, where new construction was on the rise, with an increase of an impressive 31%.
Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last 2 years working as an analyst and portfolio manager for the online investment advisory service Investor'sObserver.
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Reader Comments (Page 2 of 2)
11-24-2006 @ 10:42PM
MVC said...
Interest rates are still low. Inventory is up, leading to fewer multiple-offer situations... Yet the media keeps telling us that now is a bad time to buy... Today is the best time in years to buy real estate.
11-24-2006 @ 11:28PM
Troy Nolan said...
The housing market deserves what it is getting. The Federal Reserve is the greatest rip off artist of our USA. By their keeping the interest rates so low it heated the market too fast and now we are about to go into a recession. I hope we have a bad recession, even a depression. Bush and the GOP did this to us. Bush will be known for the useless Iraq war and for the next greatest depression since Hoover. Talk about terrorists: Bush and the GOP are the top terrorists to this nation.
11-25-2006 @ 12:03AM
Jim Singleton said...
Maybe this situation needs to be looked at from a different angle. I bought my old historical house back in 99, and it was on the market for almost 2 years, and no one else wanted it. I paid 69K for the house on 4 lots in Tampa Fla. I have lived in Tampa all my life, and worked at the same job for almost 30 years. I am near the bottom of the middle class income bracket, and I finally bought the house of my dreams. As far as I'm concerned, the "flippers" have destroyed the hopes of many, many people with dreams of owning their own house. My house now is worth about 210K now (according to the experts), but if I sold it, with my income, I would not qualify for anything but a real dump. If I had not purchased my house when I did, I would NEVER be able to buy a house here again. The market has gone crazy, with the over-inflated prices of these houses. The city is thrilled with this, because of the extreme increase of taxes, to fill their pockets full. I have no intention of ever selling my house, and plan to live in it for the rest of my life. Still, these "investers" are constantly knocking on my door, sending me letters of interest for not only my house, but the lots as well. They are so greedy, they do not want to take NO for an answer. Due to the greed of some, the hopes of countless numbers of people today will never realize their dreams of owning their own house. The mortgage brokers are coming up with all sorts of ways to get a person into their own house, knowing darn well that the new owners will loose their house to forclosure in a few years. All they care about is the money, not the well being of the buyers. At this rate, the middle class down here will have to move out of the area, and I have to wonder how will any city survive without the middle working class. I live in a poorer area of town, and there is a real rot-gut house across the street from me (2 bedroom) that has an asking price of almost 100K. Its actual worth is about 40K. The price of houses needs to drop, considerably. I have no problem with people making money, but I do have a problem with getting my throat cut for the sake of a buck.
11-26-2006 @ 2:26PM
Karen Kinsley said...
I have wanted to buy a home for a long time, I live IN Long Beach, CA 2 bedrooms,@ bath house is almost a half million dollars in a nieghborhood where bars on the windows are not unusual. with a V.A. Pension of $2,4oo a month and 40,ooo in the bank, I still have to wait until I get about $60,000 more, so I can make the mortgage payment. It's hard to leave, all my family is here. I like believing that some day, someday... with four screws and two rods in my back, sitting all day is painful, bending and twiting is out. I am surrounded by welfare recipients, illegal and legal immigrants, gangs,crime, and the most beautiful weather any homeless person could ever ask for.
11-25-2006 @ 1:15AM
bob said...
To the person who posted this and I qoute "And Blame The Mortgage Hustlers who Finance Homes at 110% of the Mortgage to Overcharge The Poor that extra 10% to get their Fees and stick the Buyers with a Mortgage so High, it gets Repo'd with-in a year.. ( ie: Targeting latino's ) All I can wake up the whole world is not agianst you and you'r story has growen old and boring!!!
11-25-2006 @ 1:17AM
Elizabeth said...
Well, Americans got what they wanted, No gay marriages, pro-life and support for the wealthy instead of support for the Middle Classes. There are not that many wealthy people and the Middle Class is the majority. That's where the money was and that's where big businesses and the wealthy people are taking the biggest hit. Good businesses means fair businesses. Good businessmen failed to put one plus one together in their heads. We all have a duty to share the resources or else be prepare to lose it all.
11-25-2006 @ 11:58PM
Brian said...
Reading this blog makes me wonder......should I buy or should I wait.....no it makes me wonder....does anybody have freakin spell check?? It is difficult at best to decifer let alone read these rants...
Don't worry about the housing market buy groceries to set aside for the bird flu. The question is not if but when.....
11-25-2006 @ 7:42AM
Matt said...
I see a lot of doom and gloomers out there and some on this board. If you are convinced that real estate is a dying breed as an investment vehicle, go check out U.S. Census Bureau population projections. With the advent of 400,000,000 people in this country within the next 50 years, where do you think they're all going to live, in mud and grass huts? No, they need housing, period.