I'm not the only person in the country who noticed that gasoline prices declined before the November 7th election. Here's how much a citizen from Texas paid for 1,039 fill ups with Super Unleaded between 1979 and November 9, 2006.
I'm also not the only one who wondered whether this decline was part of an election ploy. According to a poll published by USA Today in September, 42% of Americans thought the Bush administration "deliberately manipulated the price of gasoline so that it would decrease before this fall's elections." I was happy to pay less for gas. But it's not hard to imagine a conversation between a government official and large oil companies along these lines -- "if the Democrats take over Congress, they'll repeal the $14.5 billion in tax breaks we gave you and pass a windfall profits tax. So how about letting the price of gas fall before the election and keep us in power?"
If that conversation happened, it wasn't enough to win the election. But gasoline prices really did fall before the election and have risen since. Specifically, they fell from $3.08 on August 21, 2006 to $2.39 on November 6, 2006 and have risen to $2.42 since then. Don't believe me? Here's the average weekly U.S. average price for Super Unleaded between August 21st, 2006 and November 20th, 2006 from the Energy Information Administration:
-
Aug 21, 2006: $3.08
-
Aug 28, 2006: $3.01
-
Sep 04, 2006: $2.90
-
Sep 11, 2006: $2.79
-
Sep 18, 2006: $2.67
-
Sep 25, 2006: $2.54
-
Oct 02, 2006: $2.48
-
Oct 09, 2006: $2.43
-
Oct 16, 2006: $ 2.40
-
Oct 23, 2006: $2.39
-
Oct 30, 2006: $2.41
-
Nov 06, 2006: $2.39
-
Nov 13, 2006: $ 2.42
-
Nov 20, 2006: $2.42
Of course, there ought to be a relationship between the price charged at the pump and the cost of crude oil. I found that this relationship got a bit out of whack the day before the election. Specifically, on November 6th, the ratio of the price/barrel of gasoline at the pumps and price/barrel of crude oil fell to 167% -- significantly lower than the weekly average of 174% between August 21st and November 20th. Here are the details:
-
Aug 21, 2006: 178%
-
Aug 28, 2006: 179%
-
Sep 04, 2006: 177%
-
Sep 11, 2006: 179%
-
Sep 18, 2006: 176%
-
Sep 25, 2006: 176%
-
Oct 02, 2006: 171%
-
Oct 09, 2006: 171%
-
Oct 16, 2006: 168%
-
Oct 23, 2006: 177%
-
Oct 30, 2006: 173%
-
Nov 06, 2006: 167%
-
Nov 13, 2006: 173%
-
Nov 20, 2006: 175%
Maybe this is just a coincidence. But it makes me wonder what's going on. If you're curious too, why not e-mail this post to Henry Waxman (D: CA) who will head up the House Committee on Government Reform in January 2007. He'll have the power to investigate this. And an investigation might lead to laws which tilt the playing field slightly more towards the interests of consumers.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm, and a Professor of Management at Babson College.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-21-2006 @ 10:03AM
brad said...
It's not rocket science
11-21-2006 @ 10:06AM
Andrew Morgen said...
The link to Waxman's site rejected my comments because I am not his constiuent, not living in his Congressional District. Sorry about that.
Didn't you know about things like that?
My Congressional Representive is a Republican who benefited from the lower gas prices, so there is not sense writing her.
Andrew Morgen
11-21-2006 @ 10:15AM
Peter Cohan said...
I did not know you had to be in Waxman's district to use that link.
Here's his contact information in Washington:
2204 Rayburn House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
(202) 225-3976 (phone)
(202) 225-4099 (fax)
I don't know if he'll pay attention to calls, faxes, and letters from people outside his district but in his new role, he should.
11-21-2006 @ 10:51AM
steve krueger said...
Of Course! Everything is one giant conspiracy. I am sure the Republicans covered-up the real JFK killer as well.
Get over politics. The gasoline market is much to large for the likes of Bush and Company to manipulate. It takes billion of dollars to move the gasoline price. While I am sure you believe that Republicans will spend billions out of there own pockets to influence a couple of congressional seats, the real world just does not work that way.
Good luck in finding Elvis!
11-21-2006 @ 11:14AM
Michael Schneider said...
The one thing the Bush administration did to help lower oil prices wa to hold back on SPR purchases. This was above board and a food move o help consumers. Some might call it manipulation but it made a lot of sense and now the government will be able to start buying at a lower price as well.
Gasoline prices are influenced by many factors including refinery utilization, inventories etc. To make a case for manipulation you would have to control for other factors.
11-21-2006 @ 2:45PM
chris said...
Hard to believe someone as educated as Mr. Cohan buys into conspiracy theories like this. Gas prices up three cents in two weeks. Up a whole penny from the week before the election. Must be manipulation.
Certainly it wouldn't have anything to do with lower prices for gasoline stimulating demand for same while refineries are shifting their production focus to heating oil/distillates for winter. Gotta help out those folks in Massachusetts who don't want refineries or LNG facilities in their state, just cheap fuels, right Peter?
Nah... that's too complicated. The first poster was right - it ain't rocket science.
11-22-2006 @ 4:48AM
gandhi said...
According to one of Bob Woodward's books, Bush himself confirmed the manipulation of oil prices for US domestic political purposes:
"During a meeting in the Oval Office, according to Woodward, Bush personally thanked Bandar because the Saudis had flooded the world oil market and kept prices down in the run-up to the 2004 general election."
It wasn't just the Saudis at work this time, however. This New York Times article describes how Goldman Sachs sold-off of more than $6 billion in gasoline futures contracts, to push the price down:
"President George W. Bush nominated Henry M. Paulson, Jr. to be the 74th Secretary of the Treasury on June 19, 2006. The United States Senate unanimously confirmed Paulson to the position on June 28, 2006 and he was sworn into office on July 10, 2006. Before coming to Treasury, Paulson was Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Goldman Sachs. So what does Goldman do just weeks after Paulson is sworn in as Treasury Secretary? It announces a subtle move that drives down gasoline prices, short-term. Nice move, coming just months before the election."
And here's Lew Rockwell's analysis:
"In traders jargon, it’s called painting the tape. Indeed, the Washington Post has revealed that the government has formed something that is casually known as the Plunge Protection Team. PPT is supposed to jump in and buy stocks when things are unruly. Ronald Reagan formed the PPT when he signed Executive Order 12631. It’s just another way of painting the tape (Using your tax money, or newly printed Federal Reserve dollars, of course). Goldman is a member of the secretive PPT...
Goldman doesn’t lose money. This is a managed commodity index. Goldman manages the index, but the actual money put up comes from institutions, hedge funds and other unlucky saps that trusted Goldman to manage the commodity index as a hedge against inflation – not to bail out of $6 billion in contracts over a few weeks. The result: Unlucky saps – Major losses. Goldman – Zero losses and their man running the Treasury. Which side of this trade would you want to be on?
..Goldman had to know they were going to plunge gasoline prices short-term with this type of trading. This smells to me like a Paulson operation all the way."
11-21-2006 @ 10:10PM
Mr. noitall said...
Peter, it's o.k. if you want to promote your party or your political beliefs. What I object to is your repeated attempts to use disinformation, deceit, and propaganda in order to do so. I just hope that most of the people who read your posts are intelligent enough to know the difference between real facts and propaganda. You might not think that you are bias to the point of being irrational, but based on what I've read in some of your recent posts, I think you are. Others can read them and judge for themselves.
As for this conspiracy theory, gas price manipulation article, well it's another joke. I'm no expert on why gas prices rise before Memorial Day and drop after Labor Day every year. Or rise on anticipation of a bad hurricane season and then drop if no hurricanes occur. I'm sure there are many logical reasons that could explain why gas prices did what they did. Maybe Michael Fowlkes (BloggingStocks oil & gas expert) could offer some other explanations besides the imaginary secret conversation between a government official and the large oil companies.
I would like to encourage all people to vote for whichever party they want. I would also encourage them to recognize and reject propaganda from whatever side it comes from and make their decision based on facts.
11-22-2006 @ 9:44AM
chris said...
Yeah, gandhi, Goldman would NEVER have tried to make money in the unleaded gasoline markets when Jon Corzine was running the place.
And would that NYT article happen to be an actual NEWS article (few and far between with the Times), an editorial, or a letter? Kinda hard to tell without a legit citation.
Ah, Woodward. I guess there's a reason I find his books in the fiction section at Barnes & Noble.