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Gasoline prices: a failed election ploy?

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I'm not the only person in the country who noticed that gasoline prices declined before the November 7th election. Here's how much a citizen from Texas paid for 1,039 fill ups with Super Unleaded between 1979 and November 9, 2006.

I'm also not the only one who wondered whether this decline was part of an election ploy. According to a poll published by USA Today in September, 42% of Americans thought the Bush administration "deliberately manipulated the price of gasoline so that it would decrease before this fall's elections." I was happy to pay less for gas. But it's not hard to imagine a conversation between a government official and large oil companies along these lines -- "if the Democrats take over Congress, they'll repeal the $14.5 billion in tax breaks we gave you and pass a windfall profits tax. So how about letting the price of gas fall before the election and keep us in power?"

If that conversation happened, it wasn't enough to win the election. But gasoline prices really did fall before the election and have risen since. Specifically, they fell from $3.08 on August 21, 2006 to $2.39 on November 6, 2006 and have risen to $2.42 since then. Don't believe me? Here's the average weekly U.S. average price for Super Unleaded between August 21st, 2006 and November 20th, 2006 from the Energy Information Administration:

  • Aug 21, 2006: $3.08
  • Aug 28, 2006: $3.01
  • Sep 04, 2006: $2.90
  • Sep 11, 2006: $2.79
  • Sep 18, 2006: $2.67
  • Sep 25, 2006: $2.54
  • Oct 02, 2006: $2.48
  • Oct 09, 2006: $2.43
  • Oct 16, 2006: $ 2.40
  • Oct 23, 2006: $2.39
  • Oct 30, 2006: $2.41
  • Nov 06, 2006: $2.39
  • Nov 13, 2006: $ 2.42
  • Nov 20, 2006: $2.42

Of course, there ought to be a relationship between the price charged at the pump and the cost of crude oil. I found that this relationship got a bit out of whack the day before the election. Specifically, on November 6th, the ratio of the price/barrel of gasoline at the pumps and price/barrel of crude oil fell to 167% -- significantly lower than the weekly average of 174% between August 21st and November 20th. Here are the details:

  • Aug 21, 2006: 178%
  • Aug 28, 2006: 179%
  • Sep 04, 2006: 177%
  • Sep 11, 2006: 179%
  • Sep 18, 2006: 176%
  • Sep 25, 2006: 176%
  • Oct 02, 2006: 171%
  • Oct 09, 2006: 171%
  • Oct 16, 2006: 168%
  • Oct 23, 2006: 177%
  • Oct 30, 2006: 173%
  • Nov 06, 2006: 167%
  • Nov 13, 2006: 173%
  • Nov 20, 2006: 175%

Maybe this is just a coincidence. But it makes me wonder what's going on. If you're curious too, why not e-mail this post to Henry Waxman (D: CA) who will head up the House Committee on Government Reform in January 2007. He'll have the power to investigate this. And an investigation might lead to laws which tilt the playing field slightly more towards the interests of consumers.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm, and a Professor of Management at Babson College.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 10:48 AM

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