Market observers are always looking for a top. It is that one moment, that one symbolic act, that one windfall beyond belief or act of such stupidity that tells folks that things have gotten as crazy as they are going to get. And it's all downhill from here.
It's the day when irrational exuberance gets drunk on hubris. And a terrible hangover follows.
Well, I have seen the top, and it happened this week.
Was it the announcement that Wall Streeters were going to get $30 billion in bonuses in their Christmas stockings this year? Nope.
Was it the Hertz IPO, you ask, where investors fleeced Ford Motor company (NYSE:F) and made $2 billion in about thirty minutes? No sirree.
Was it Google Inc.(NASDAQ:GOOG) buying YouTube, Inc. for about $10 million dollars per day that the company existed ? Nyet.
Was it the announcement of more than $50 BILLION DOLLARS of deals in one day, which occurred on Monday ? Wrong again!
No , the proof that investors have moved into that special place where only the Tulips have value was announced in the New York Times on Monday: "Old Moguls Never Die; They Just Get Private Equity." Hedge funds and private equity folks have turned to the trusty safe haven of Film Production for their next big bet.
Folks, when this happens, Elvis has left the building.
The Times article identifies a number of former studio heads who have been raising big bucks from private investors to start new film production businesses, as if there was a need for the next $25 million picture. When otherwise-intelligent investors have decided that this is the best way to spend investors' money, the end is near.
Even Tom Cruise has done a Private Equity Deal. Shouldn't everybody?
I would have thought that after the Amaranth Advisors hedge fund debacle, the phone lines of these new producer-wannabees would be burning up with investor panic. Perhaps they are.
The film production business is the world's riskiest business. It is a little like betting on a very expensive artist to make ten paintings hoping that they will ultimately have value. But actually, it is much worse than that, as investors are betting on a group of "artists" (producers, directors, writers and actors) to assemble a piece of art that matches the taste of the day when it is released. Better than that, the makers of this art do not know in advance what the mood of the consumer will be or what the competitive film landscape will look like at the time. Layer on silly "star" salaries and ginormous egos and you have a the perfect formula for losing money. Oh, right, that's called the Movie Business.
The folks in LA love this trend SOOOOOO much I cannot tell you. Every ten years or so a group of Very Rich Folks come calling in Hollywood, wearing their Ray-bans and ready to be fleeced while they have lunch at the Ivy. In the 80's, it was the Japanese. Wow, such a boondoggle for Hollywood, and now the Japanese are mostly gone and much poorer for their visit. Today it is the hedge fund moguls, too rich for their own good and searching for something far more fun than investing in boring rental car companies. Hey, movie making has such nice "ancillary benefits." Too bad the fund investors never get these "fringes." And five years from now the hedge fund folks will have left Hollywood too, disillusioned and much poorer. The Hollywood insiders, however, will be laughing in Malibu, waiting for the next group of suckers to show up.
Meanwhile, the hedge fund managers who have made the big film bets will likely be in new jobs, with their investors left holding the celluloid as an IRR.
That was Monday. Private Capital leaps all over the Movie Business. The day the music died.
Rick Rickertsen is a managing partner at Pine Creek Partners, a Washington, D.C.-based private equity firm, and author of Sell Your Business Your Way.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-21-2006 @ 5:49PM
Mark Bellinghaus said...
I absolutely agree. This circus has gone too far. I have seen personally and with my own eyes, that Mr. Tom Cruise in his life has done, what no 100% straigh man would do, and that willingly to pay his rent for his apartment on Hayworth Av. in West Hollywood, CA. And his former landlord admitted to renting out that place also to another Hollywood actor.
This is not about outing--it is about my personal situation I found myself in. I was threatened by Tom Cruise's former landlord who has "connections" and is not shy of using them.
If anybody believes the hoax that just happened in Italy and most people really are fed up and done with the Cruis-spectacle a la Brother Grimm, they need to either become a commited member of the Cruise-ship Church, which makes their members wear wicked uniforms like the Nazi's did, or it is calling for an emergency reality check up!
I was approached by Tom Cruise's lawyer, who already threatened me with a big lawsuit if I do not withdraw my claims.
Sorry pal, I am no porn actor who claims this or that--I just shut down the biggest fraud in exhibition history, last may, when a class action lawsuit was filed against a fraud gang. They were going to tour the US and then the world with an over 90% fraudulent exhibition for the next twelve years! Marilyn Monroe--the exhibit would have made more than $100 million dollars just with the admission fees alone.
I know that is not a big amount, for someone who just bought his own movie studio, after his former one kicked his behind out.
But I can only stand behind my knowledge, which I witnessed.
My crediability is excellent and proven. The lawyer also states that Mr. Cruise is not gay, yet has respect for any sexual orientation. Oh really? Why is it, that he is threatening then?
Can someone please explain to me, why this leader of the Scientology Church just joined the freaking honeymoon of the "TomKats?"
The marriage was a clear hoax as well, as they already got married officially in Los Angeles--before they flew to Italy!
Thank god we did not go! That must be clear to the Hollywood elite, which stayed at home all together and completely.
The marriage spectacle, the (fake) three minute kiss, that is, what will be remembered by another legend of American film history--Tom Cruise.
Just as we remember from the most brilliant South Park epsiode ever, when Stan screams: "Sue me--I'm not afraid!"
11-21-2006 @ 8:25PM
Mark Bellinghaus said...
I forgot to include an important link in my previous post:
http://www.pr-inside.com/tom-cruise-is-gay-r26511.htm