We've reached the market top: Tom Cruise meets private equity

Market observers are always looking for a top. It is that one moment, that one symbolic act, that one windfall beyond belief or act of such stupidity that tells folks that things have gotten as crazy as they are going to get. And it's all downhill from here.

It's the day when irrational exuberance gets drunk on hubris. And a terrible hangover follows.

Well, I have seen the top, and it happened this week.

Was it the announcement that Wall Streeters were going to get $30 billion in bonuses in their Christmas stockings this year? Nope.

Was it the Hertz IPO, you ask, where investors fleeced Ford Motor company (NYSE:F) and made $2 billion in about thirty minutes? No sirree.

Was it Google Inc.(NASDAQ:GOOG) buying YouTube, Inc. for about $10 million dollars per day that the company existed ? Nyet.

Was it the announcement of more than $50 BILLION DOLLARS of deals in one day, which occurred on Monday ? Wrong again!

No , the proof that investors have moved into that special place where only the Tulips have value was announced in the New York Times on Monday: "Old Moguls Never Die; They Just Get Private Equity." Hedge funds and private equity folks have turned to the trusty safe haven of Film Production for their next big bet.

Folks, when this happens, Elvis has left the building.

The Times article identifies a number of former studio heads who have been raising big bucks from private investors to start new film production businesses, as if there was a need for the next $25 million picture. When otherwise-intelligent investors have decided that this is the best way to spend investors' money, the end is near.

Even Tom Cruise has done a Private Equity Deal. Shouldn't everybody?

I would have thought that after the Amaranth Advisors hedge fund debacle, the phone lines of these new producer-wannabees would be burning up with investor panic. Perhaps they are.

The film production business is the world's riskiest business. It is a little like betting on a very expensive artist to make ten paintings hoping that they will ultimately have value. But actually, it is much worse than that, as investors are betting on a group of "artists" (producers, directors, writers and actors) to assemble a piece of art that matches the taste of the day when it is released. Better than that, the makers of this art do not know in advance what the mood of the consumer will be or what the competitive film landscape will look like at the time. Layer on silly "star" salaries and ginormous egos and you have a the perfect formula for losing money. Oh, right, that's called the Movie Business.

The folks in LA love this trend SOOOOOO much I cannot tell you. Every ten years or so a group of Very Rich Folks come calling in Hollywood, wearing their Ray-bans and ready to be fleeced while they have lunch at the Ivy. In the 80's, it was the Japanese. Wow, such a boondoggle for Hollywood, and now the Japanese are mostly gone and much poorer for their visit. Today it is the hedge fund moguls, too rich for their own good and searching for something far more fun than investing in boring rental car companies. Hey, movie making has such nice "ancillary benefits." Too bad the fund investors never get these "fringes." And five years from now the hedge fund folks will have left Hollywood too, disillusioned and much poorer. The Hollywood insiders, however, will be laughing in Malibu, waiting for the next group of suckers to show up.

Meanwhile, the hedge fund managers who have made the big film bets will likely be in new jobs, with their investors left holding the celluloid as an IRR.

That was Monday. Private Capital leaps all over the Movie Business. The day the music died.

Rick Rickertsen is a managing partner at Pine Creek Partners, a Washington, D.C.-based private equity firm, and author of Sell Your Business Your Way.

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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 03:48 AM

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