Frequent warehouse club shoppers can spot the newbies in an instant. With expressions of glee on their faces, they stop at every aisle. Cereal, pasta, bathing suits and batteries all go willy-nilly in the cart. Shopping lists are soon abandoned as gallon-sized containers of gourmet jelly beans along with a new iPod or DVD player find their way into the cart.
Veterans shudder, thinking of the shock and horror those first-timers will no doubt feel when they confront a $300-or-worse bill at check-out.
Clearly, warehouse club shoppers are getting wise to the best way to shop these bargain meccas. Learn some of their secrets: See, The Top Five Worst Warehouse Club Buys.
Ironically, you can often tell the most experienced warehouse club shoppers by the dearth of items in their carts. Less experienced warehouse shoppers like myself (not a newbie, but not hardcore), often steal glances into these carts to see what choice items lurk there. Surely these represent the best buys in the place.
This dynamic -- the more frequent the customer, the fewer items purchased -- presents a problem for the companies that operate these stores, as well as investors in the stocks of Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:COST) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT), which operates Sam's Club.
How are these companies going to keep their sales up in the long run? Shoppers will keep coming back -- and many of them will buy their big ticket items through warehouse chains (cars, flat-screen TVs, mattresses, jewelry). But does that spending equal the regular week-to-week splurges that new customers bring?
Right now Wall Street is decided bearish on Costco, fearing its quarterly sales won't keep pace with earlier growth. Analysts were more optimistic about Wal-Mart -- that is, until it turned in a disappointing sales performance during the key post-Thanksgiving shopping weekend.
I predict both warehouse outlets ultimately will do fine this quarter as customers flock to Costco and Sam's Club for all their holiday entertaining needs and find plenty of luxury-oriented gift ideas along the way.
But next year, if consumer spending fades and the economy weakens further, it seems likely that the free-spending newbies will convert even faster the the smart-shopping veterans. For warehouse club stocks, which are valued on sales growth, that could mean trouble ahead.



Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
11-29-2006 @ 8:42AM
steve said...
You are very confused about what a typical Costco shopping "Veteran" is... those carts are not as empty as the picture you paint. Take another look, this time watch the checkouts, exits, and carts/flatbeds heading back to the cars (not the folks who haven't finished shopping)... they are full at the Costco's I shop at....and the ones I shop at are not unique.
You claim next year that newbies may convert even faster to (what you claim is) a veteran due to the economy... I'm not buying it...why didn't other economic dips affect Costco over the last 20 plus years???
Same store sales continue to grow year over year. If folks were getting wise, as you put it, by your logic shouldn’t these stores that have been in there markets for years had sales drop off????
If you don't like Costco for other reason why not state those instead of making up stuff and drawing illogical conclusions. Sheesh!
11-29-2006 @ 10:42AM
Jim Hamblin said...
Having spent 50 years in and around the retail business, I only claim to really KNOW two retail stocks . . Costco and Target. When journalists offer opinions about them, I ask 2 simple questions. Are they retail analysts? Are they well experienced retail authorities? Your comments about Costco are off the mark, so I'm concluding that you are neither an analyst nor an authority. The main reason that most analysts are ambivalent about Costco is that their compensation and benefits costs tend to be high, that they stumbled over their options-granting ethics and that their liberal return policy was eating them alive on big ticket products.
11-29-2006 @ 1:27PM
Jill said...
I also disagree w/ you article. We've been Costco members for over 2 years, and shop there 3-6 times a month. We're not newbies, but still spend a lot there. Somtimes it's to run in to get a few items we know & love, but we also truly enjoy a leisurely trip down every aisle because of all the bargains we find. Every item is not your best deal, and we do a good portion of our grocery shopping at other stores, but for a lot of occasional purchases (greeting card packs, jewelry boxes, tools, appliances, entertaining eqipment, specialty items, etc.) Costco can't be beat when you compare the quality with other places. Even w/ careful choosing, theres's plenty to find!!
11-29-2006 @ 3:32PM
pam said...
I too consider myself a veteran of these warehouse stores and disagree with you. As a military widow I can shop at any number of bases locally, but go quarterly to Sam's. My bills are large, my purchases remain consistent, and my savings is in time and gas. I have several animals, so purchasing several boxes of cat food that contain 36 cans each saves me the time and gasoline of running to walmart every few days, and these cartons store much more easily than loose cans. Same with 30 pounds of dry catfood or 40 pounds of liter. Again savings is more than the cost of an item these days, when you factor in time, convenience and gas.
11-29-2006 @ 4:19PM
Nancy said...
I am not a "newbie" as you call it, I have been wholesale shopping for many years now. I am one of the filled carts with a bill of $200 - $300 each time. I purchase many of my grocery items here as well as gifts, books, etc. I like buying my groceries in bulk because usually the prices are better than grocery stores or at least the same. You just need to have storage for bulk, which I do. This saves me time and money, no trips every week for groceries except for quick stops for milk, eggs or other perishables. I am not a coupon clipper, but I do know my prices. If it is cheaper, like certain sodas, then I buy at the grocers. I love going down the aisles to see what is new and what great gifts I can find. I am also one of those shoppers who is usually finished with Christmas shopping before Thanksgiving. When I find a great buy that would be a great gift, I purchase it and put it away til the intended birthday/holiday. The quality of most gift items for the money usually can't be beat. You just need to be a savvy shopper, know your prices and quality elsewhere.
11-29-2006 @ 4:14PM
Bec said...
Your way off base !
Guess you dont shop much for a family !
11-29-2006 @ 5:10PM
Bec said...
Your way off base. I guess you dont shop much for a large family !
11-29-2006 @ 4:48PM
The Ronster said...
I just wanted to say.....Amey, you're HOT! (-;
11-30-2006 @ 3:05PM
Ken said...
I am definitely not a "nubie". I have been shopping Costco from it's early days 20 years ago. True, my cart is not full each trip but I do go there once a week and usually drop $100 + each time. Some of my purchases go for food for the poor. Two reasons for Costco, 1. price and 2. some of the best quality I can find. And I think the poor should have that too. I am an executive member so each year I get a check from Costco reflecting a return on my purchases. This generally comes to $100 or more. Thus I consider I have free membership as my renewal comes from this refund.
11-30-2006 @ 11:01PM
Charles said...
I agree with the comments above. I have been a
Costco Shopper for over 10 years and definetely have more $200-$250 bills than I do under $100. If I found myself spending much less, it wouldn't be worth the trip. But the fact that I still feel it is worth the trip, that I save money on the staples I buy there, and that there return policy can't be beat, keeps me coming back. The difference between a veteran and a "Newbie" (I hate that term) is that veterans know that better deals may be found on some items, and have an idea what those items might be. It doesn't take all that long to learn this. On Large ticket items the convenience and return policy may still make shopping here worth a small price difference.
It is real annoying to find so call "articles" written by people that obviously have little experience on a subject prominently promoted on AOL. What a waste!
12-02-2006 @ 11:55AM
Gloria said...
I wholeheartedly agree with your article! I live near a Costco and go there several times a week.
I hardly ever even need a cart, and the longer I go there, the less I find appealing. I have in the past bought furniture, and appliances, etc., there.
11-29-2006 @ 5:55PM
john hoel said...
are you kidding. How long have these stores been in business? And just now you think they're going in the crapper because you buy less? look around alot of new and old shoppers still spend alot of money there and the stores are always full. Please from now on think and do some research before you decide to write misinformation on the internet.
11-29-2006 @ 6:51PM
KillerDu said...
I think you are off base. We have been shopping Costco about 12 years and we are not newbies. The nearest store is 75 miles from our home. We buy most of our groceries and big ticket items at Costco. Tho we do watch sales at our two (yes 2) local grocery stores and the internet. We buy if the price is great. We buy most of our perishables at the local store. We go "to town" once every two to four months. So when we go to Costco we go up and down every row. Buy what's on our long term list and spend anywhere from $300 to $1,000. My holiday and birthday gift giving is usually accomplished 2 to 4 months before the event as I buy items at warehouse stores and watch the internet for specials. I bless the warehouse stores. Saves me much $$ and time driving around.
11-29-2006 @ 6:16PM
Bill said...
Hmmm, a trip to a grocery store or Super Walmart at $100 to $150 a pop each week, or a trip to a warehouse club once a month for $300???. I guess I am one of the aforementioned newbies, as I have been doing this for going onto 15 years or so.
I also have never seen a store empty and I have had to wait in line for other customers, most that have bills as high or higher than mine.
As for going down every aisle, maybe you do have a point there, I personally skip the Diaper and feminine product aisle, as I really have no need for that stuff. If my wife needs the "high" associated with these aisles, I will go into the tire section or tool area and get my high. Basically if ya can use soemthing in the aisle, go down it, you will probably find a deal!
Amy Stone should get a life and know what she is writing about before she predicts another failure in our economic community. Articles like hers only assist in causing ripples among the so called "elite" that have never stepped foot into a "discount" store or Warehouse, as that is what they hire other people to do for them.
11-29-2006 @ 6:24PM
Gina said...
I worked at Costco. First, I would like to say they treat their employees well and pay pretty good!
But really, I was the person who would check your ticket as you were walking out. I can tell you without a doubt, that at least 20 backets / flatbeds would get dragged out the door totally stuffed and overflowing to every single one person carrying out one or two items!!
And that was continuous throughtout the whole entire day. Open to close.
I don't know where you got your stats from buddy, but you gave me a GOOD LAUGH!!
12-02-2006 @ 2:50PM
Boz said...
So, Costco is going under because I've moved away eh? LOL
I used to travel about an hour to get to Costco and I'd have a full shopping cart each time. I'd be there at a minimum of once a month. Unless I was shopping for something specific and short on time, I'd be going down every isle, ya never know what's gonna change. Sometimes it was just to drool over something that I wanted and had no place for lol. Considering their return policy, so what if the price is the same elsewhere. It's worth it to go there and see other quality items ya might need.
Over the years, I figure I've saved more money overall than the few extra dollars I might have payed out on an item that I may have saved on said item elsewhere. After all, it would have required me going out of my way, extra gas to get to the other place, added wear and tear on the vehicle and tires, if it wasn't on my normal route. However, I'm still sure I saved on all of that to drive the distance to Costco.
Unfortunately, now I'm way too far to make the trip to one and I miss it.
11-29-2006 @ 6:51PM
Lorraine Ginnane said...
I love shopping at Costco as they carry great products and have a grear return policy. I also like the fact that they pay their employees a good wage not like Walmart. I refuse to shop at walmart as I do not like their cheap products and they way they treat their employees.
11-29-2006 @ 8:42PM
Kim said...
I couldn't disagree with you and your article more! I have been shopping at Sam's Club and Costco for years!! You do not have to be careful about buying in bulk if you have proper packaging. I bought my foodsaver at costco and the packaging when doing this method is even better than most coming from the actual factories! My cart is definately not empty and I save a lot of money not having to buy my lunch out while I am work due to wholesale buys! Maybe some retailers paid you alot of money to endorse there many over priced products, but this is one wholesale shopper that says good ridance to your unrealistic point of view!
11-29-2006 @ 10:46PM
Steve said...
Having been a Costco employee for about 6 years now, and worked in the retail industry for twice that I have seen it all.
I would prefer to work with a employee for Costco anyday than a "associate" anywhere else.
I don't live excessive but have enough to ensure I will retire comfortably at 62.
The employees really do care about their members and the company insists on hiring people like that.
11-30-2006 @ 2:37AM
sarah gilbert said...
Amey, as someone who fanatically compares prices, I totally agree with you! Often, Target is better priced for so many things (hello diapers, and wipes, which I've endlessly compared and can rattle off unit prices by diaper size), not to mention Trader Joe's -- I send my husband to Costco with a list of a dozen things and that's all we get. There are seasonal things that are cheaper at Costco (like chocolate chips) but shopping the sales at the regular grocery store is almost always cheaper.