Shoppers get wise to warehouse buys: Trouble ahead for COST, WMT?

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Frequent warehouse club shoppers can spot the newbies in an instant. With expressions of glee on their faces, they stop at every aisle. Cereal, pasta, bathing suits and batteries all go willy-nilly in the cart. Shopping lists are soon abandoned as gallon-sized containers of gourmet jelly beans along with a new iPod or DVD player find their way into the cart.

Veterans shudder, thinking of the shock and horror those first-timers will no doubt feel when they confront a $300-or-worse bill at check-out.

Clearly, warehouse club shoppers are getting wise to the best way to shop these bargain meccas. Learn some of their secrets: See, The Top Five Worst Warehouse Club Buys.

Ironically, you can often tell the most experienced warehouse club shoppers by the dearth of items in their carts. Less experienced warehouse shoppers like myself (not a newbie, but not hardcore), often steal glances into these carts to see what choice items lurk there. Surely these represent the best buys in the place.

This dynamic -- the more frequent the customer, the fewer items purchased -- presents a problem for the companies that operate these stores, as well as investors in the stocks of Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:COST) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT), which operates Sam's Club.

How are these companies going to keep their sales up in the long run? Shoppers will keep coming back -- and many of them will buy their big ticket items through warehouse chains (cars, flat-screen TVs, mattresses, jewelry). But does that spending equal the regular week-to-week splurges that new customers bring?

Right now Wall Street is decided bearish on Costco, fearing its quarterly sales won't keep pace with earlier growth. Analysts were more optimistic about Wal-Mart -- that is, until it turned in a disappointing sales performance during the key post-Thanksgiving shopping weekend.

I predict both warehouse outlets ultimately will do fine this quarter as customers flock to Costco and Sam's Club for all their holiday entertaining needs and find plenty of luxury-oriented gift ideas along the way.

But next year, if consumer spending fades and the economy weakens further, it seems likely that the free-spending newbies will convert even faster the the smart-shopping veterans. For warehouse club stocks, which are valued on sales growth, that could mean trouble ahead.

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Last updated: February 09, 2010: 08:27 PM

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