Walgreen Co. (NYSE:WAG), the nation's largest drugstore chain by store count, has had its stock target price lowered by Merrill Lynch Canada analyst Patricia Baker. Baker has edged down her 12-month price target to $54 from $56 as she worries about the competitive threat from mighty Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT), which has recently began a major shift, lowering prices on over 300 generic prescription drugs in its pharmacies.I posited this fact back in October when Wal-Mart first announced its new pharmacy pricing program. I think there will be negative impacts to the businesses of both CVS Corp. (NYSE:CVS) and Walgreen's in 2007 as the full effect of Wal-Mart's drastic prescription drug price cuts is felt. How much will the nation's two largest drug chains feel the pinch? That is a good question.
Wal-Mart's program has not had enough time to be properly measured, and Baker says she hasn't seen any sign yet that Wal-Mart is eating into Walgreen's sales, but, she says uncertainty is increasing. The fact that Walgreen's competitor CVS is merging with Caremark Rx Inc. (NYSE:CMX) managed healthcare should most likely only add to the broiling temperatures in Walgreen's in 2007.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-05-2006 @ 4:04PM
Patrick L Kelley said...
I cannot reason why these publicly held companies send bean counters to estimate what their sales might be . Estimates are worthless . Bottom lines are the only factors ever to use . estimates on future sales and profits , Are guessing , foretelling thhe future ! Aint no such thing as magic or furtune telling .
12-05-2006 @ 4:11PM
mike said...
Wal-Mart's $4 prescriptions hurt Walgreen & CVS? Both still have increased sales over year ago firgures and Walgreens same store sales increased bested the forecaster prediction. As Walgreens has stated all along. Wal-Mart is not cutting into their sales. Wal-Mart does not have 24 hour pharmacy service, does not have drive through service, and in most of their stores the pharmacy counter closes so their lone pharmacist can go to lunch. Wal-Mart does not match the service you received at Walgreens or CVS. Until they do, customers will go where they can get their meds, not someplace that closes for lunch!
12-06-2006 @ 11:30AM
Peter Y. said...
WAG is not the largest drug chain by store count. That honor goes to CVS. WAG can however be consider the largest volume per store average with the most Rxs filled each year.
12-06-2006 @ 12:20AM
P said...
The $4 generics at Wal-Mart are the low end, very old generics that were already cheap to begin with. The average medicare co-pay is less than $4 already. Why would any senior go through the hassle of Wal-Mart for anything when they can get it cheaper elsewhere.
12-06-2006 @ 2:34AM
Gary Bourgeault (managersrealm.com) said...
The idea that Wal-Mart doesn't match the service offered by their competitors has no relevance to this issue at all. People don't go to Wal-Mart to get service, they go there for low prices.
As far as measuring the impact, that won't be able to be really done until the program is expanded across the U.S. At that time it will be seen how hard it may hit the pharmacies.
12-06-2006 @ 11:47AM
mo said...
this $4 for generics thing will only hurt other pharmacies who's profit margins are already razor thin due to lower reimbursement rates from PBM's.
How else are the pharmacies going to pay for the shortage of pharmacists, technicians, new technology that is mandated to increase patient safety, prescription vials, labels, software/computer upgrades, utility bills, state/local licensing fees...etc etc..
All this is a ploy by walmart to increase their sagging bottomline!
12-07-2006 @ 1:19PM
Mike C said...
Walmarts $4.00 RX is worthless...you normally pay less than that anyways for the scripts that they applies this $4.00 charge to. Walgreens will not be stopped by a poor customer service giant. Walgreens has had over 20 years of record sales...this has not touched them so far and i doubt it will. Walmart's Rx is inconvient..you have to park a mile away and walk through crowds to get your rx..its not worth it when you can just go through the drive through! Walmart just declared a decline in sales..this is just a way for them to hopefully regain something. GOOD LUCK! haha
12-11-2006 @ 3:37PM
Jim said...
The technology will be a challenge for all especially Walmart. Prescriptions are such a small part of their business and once all is said and done they need to make more per sq. ft. and will need to sell more clothing and higher margin products. The technology and labor costs will be a challenge for all especially Walmart since they do not have the economies of scale CVS and WAG has. This $4 program is no more than a continuation of a string of press releases without significant substance.
12-11-2006 @ 3:40PM
Jim said...
pardon the poor post. posted before finished editing.
12-12-2006 @ 9:52AM
Yvette said...
I am a pharmacist for Walgreens. I have been a pharmacist for 16 years; however, I have only been with Walgreens the last 6.5 years. I have worked for Eckerds and Walmart. Back in 1993, I worked for Walmart as a Pharmacist. I was only there for 6 months,but that was enough time for me to learn that I will no shop there. I was treated better at Eckerds that I was at Walmart at the time. It is true that the pharmacy busy is an afterthought for Walmart. Why do you think when a patient goes into Walmart for a prescription they have to wait a couple of hours. It is so they will spend money in the front-end of the store where they make there money. I feel the $4 generic program is a ploy to make people forget the bad PR they have had for the last 2 years: i.e. Not doing background checks on their employees and hiring child molesters. Plus, the employee benefits at Walmart cannot touch the outstanding benefits you receive at Walgreens.
12-14-2006 @ 4:28PM
Dorothy said...
I as well am a pharmacist for Walgreens. I worked for a local competitor for 10 years. Nothing compares to walgreens. The $4 Walmart "deal" is in my state and has no effect on my store, it has actually increased my business. Patients left only to come back when they discovered most if not all their drugs were NOT on the list. Simple albuterol inhalers are not on the list. Some of my patients felt they were tricked into going to Walmart only to find they have to wait longer, be treated worse and then find out they are paying the same.
2-15-2007 @ 8:54PM
Roxi said...
Ok, I work for Walgreens too, as a store manager. I've got 18yrs in, my business is good, despite the $4.00 generic scheme. I hold shares in Walmart, this was a great company when Sam Walton was alive--now it may be "huge" but I consider it now to be 3rd rate, and the shares I hold will soon be traded for more WAG stock. They (Walmart) treat their help like 2nd class citzens and they are truly ruining the middle class (so is Washington, but that's another rant for another time). CVS is over extended and is asking their managers to take a "voluntary cut in pay" of nearly 8K per year. Now I don't know about you, but if the top of the chain can make a mistake like that and expect their hard-working managers to take the hit, its not a company I would work for nor shop in nor invest in. Walgreens, on the other hand has a solid midwest value system that's ethical and honest. Yeah, I know I'm prejudiced in their favor, but nearly 30 years of solid earnings and growth-with no over extending...and no "voluntary pay cuts either..." , no store closings, and organic growth. $4.00 generics?? Please--it's a gimmick and a ploy. There are over 1400 generics available. They offered it on 400 drugs-big deal. MedPartD is a great playing field leveler. It's about service, you can't get it at Walmart nor CVS
2-23-2007 @ 4:29PM
gerdesblgr said...
I have been a Walgreen's stockholder fof many
years. In that time the stock has split seven
times, and has never missed a quarterly dividend.
Show me a drug chain with a better record.
Wm. J. Gerdes