Consumer confidence and payrolls: A Tale of Two Views

Consumer Confidence numbers were the second piece of major economic data released today. The first was the Payroll numbers released at 8:30 AM and discussed in my earlier post.

This was literally a Tale of Two Views. The Payroll numbers came in better than expected, showing unexpected strength in the economy. However, Consumer Confidence data showed a dip from 92.4 in November to 86.9. Neither report indicated an extreme in a single direction.

What does this mean? It looks more like the soft landing that the Fed has been forecasting. I discussed this in detail in my prior post The U.S. Stock Market: Five Reasons 2007 is Looking Like 1995. The stock market is literally climbing the Wall of Worry.

This is great news for long-term investors and vindicates the bullishness that I have had since last summer. It allows the Fed to maintain its current position of neither raising nor lowering interest rates. The stock market continues to rises slowly.

However, it is driving the pundits and traders insane! They have been forecasting that Fed will have to adjust its position to reflect their own. The inflation hawks say that this means higher rates. The recession doves say that the current weakness in the economy will force the Fed to lower rates. The Fed seems to be winning the battle.

Remember not to fight the Fed. As I have said before, the Fed can maintain its position longer than you can remain solvent! The best and easiest way to make money in the market is to Follow the Fed.

Doug Roberts is the Founder and Chief Investment Strategist for FollowtheFed.com, an independent research firm focusing on investment strategies using the Federal Reserve's impact on the stock prices. He previously held executive positions at Morgan Stanley Group and Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.