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Best & Worst: Gas prices in 2006 went from boom, to bust

This post is written as part of AOL Money & Finance's Best & Worst of 2006. Vote for it as the Money Story of the Year or check out the other nominees in the category.

Gas prices are truly the Money Story of 2006. Along with crude oil prices, they peaked during the middle of the year and then, just as some forecasters were talking about $5 per gallon, they promptly took a nosedive.

Some people are claiming that this is a temporary calm in the storm. They cite the rising energy demand from the modernization of China and other emerging markets as indicators of higher prices to come. Others mention that the tensions in the Mideast, in particular, are still present and act as a potential source of supply disruptions. Some even talk as if this is the beginning of the 1970s all over again.

Maybe so -- anything is possible. However, the stock market does not seem to be cooperating. Gas prices are the story of the year, but it's not the story that these people wrote. The gas bubble broke (pardon the pun), letting out not only a lot of hot air but also fuel for the current stock market rally.

The decrease in oil prices has eased inflationary pressures and allowed the Federal Reserve to go on hold with its string of interest rate increases. This has indeed provided gas for the current equity bull market.

Will it continue? Never underestimate the power of the market. The initial rise in gas prices has brought forth additional oil discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico and Canada, along with increased focus on alternative fuels such as ethanol. On the demand side of the equation, conservation technologies are also being developed. As these are introduced into the economy, the energy savings will be long term in nature.

As we approach the 2008 presidential election with a split government, Democrats in control of Congress and Republicans in the White House, neither party wants to be blamed for higher gas prices. This serves as an incentive for both parties not to do anything to rock the oil and gas market boat.

Whether gas prices go up or go down, they may also turn out to be the Money Story of 2007 as well.

Doug Roberts is the Founder and Chief Investment Strategist for FollowtheFed.com, an independent research firm focusing on investment strategies using the Federal Reserve's impact on the stock prices. He previously held executive positions at Morgan Stanley Group and Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

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Last updated: July 06, 2008: 05:32 PM

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