This post is written as part of AOL Money & Finance's Best & Worst of 2006. Vote for it as the Money Story of the Year or check out the other nominees in the category.
Gas prices are truly the Money Story of 2006. Along with crude oil prices, they peaked during the middle of the year and then, just as some forecasters were talking about $5 per gallon, they promptly took a nosedive.
Some people are claiming that this is a temporary calm in the storm. They cite the rising energy demand from the modernization of China and other emerging markets as indicators of higher prices to come. Others mention that the tensions in the Mideast, in particular, are still present and act as a potential source of supply disruptions. Some even talk as if this is the beginning of the 1970s all over again.
Maybe so -- anything is possible. However, the stock market does not seem to be cooperating. Gas prices are the story of the year, but it's not the story that these people wrote. The gas bubble broke (pardon the pun), letting out not only a lot of hot air but also fuel for the current stock market rally.
The decrease in oil prices has eased inflationary pressures and allowed the Federal Reserve to go on hold with its string of interest rate increases. This has indeed provided gas for the current equity bull market.
Will it continue? Never underestimate the power of the market. The initial rise in gas prices has brought forth additional oil discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico and Canada, along with increased focus on alternative fuels such as ethanol. On the demand side of the equation, conservation technologies are also being developed. As these are introduced into the economy, the energy savings will be long term in nature.
As we approach the 2008 presidential election with a split government, Democrats in control of Congress and Republicans in the White House, neither party wants to be blamed for higher gas prices. This serves as an incentive for both parties not to do anything to rock the oil and gas market boat.
Whether gas prices go up or go down, they may also turn out to be the Money Story of 2007 as well.
Doug Roberts is the Founder and Chief Investment Strategist for FollowtheFed.com, an independent research firm focusing on investment strategies using the Federal Reserve's impact on the stock prices. He previously held executive positions at Morgan Stanley Group and Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-15-2006 @ 1:36AM
Jess said...
Did anyone notice that gas prices went down during the senate and congress elections but went back up after republicans lost?
It's a really sick, sad world we live in when the rich want nothing more than to be richer. An unsatiable greed that is all-consuming of a person's soul. It's no longer what's best for..everyone...only what's best for the 'people that matter'.
12-17-2006 @ 2:17AM
DONNA GOSSET said...
YES: WE ARE BECOMING A SAD STORY. WHEN GAS PRICES ARE RULED BY THE RICH AND ? AS WE LOSE GOD IN THIS COUNTRY WE SEE GREED TAKING OVER AND THE END WILL NOT BE A PRETTY ONE.
WAKE UP AMERICA, THE PARTY IS OVER!
12-19-2006 @ 9:32AM
WLS said...
But what will the American people do about it? Absolutely nothing. We can't refuse to buy gasoline because we need to go to work, we need to go to the grocery, etc. We will just continue to whine and complain about the cost. I would like to see someone actually develop a real plan that would put our elected representatives in a corner instead of putting the consumers back to the wall. We chose them to represent us and they are not representing our interests at all. Instead, they are all taking their piece of the pie and getting rich along side the Exxon executives.
12-20-2006 @ 1:43PM
roy herrera jr said...
the comments befor mine you people need to understand something befor you speak about it first you know nothing about gas prices or for that matter our economy and how it works go back to school and learn a lot more then george washington was the first presedent everyone always complaining but no one stops driving and let me tell you people are driving more these day then ever befor spendind more for that matter and its not the rich who are doing all that spending it the middle and lower classes so got off your buts go to work and learn how to manage your money and you wont be upset at everyone else for your short commings.
12-28-2006 @ 11:35AM
Matt Mansbach said...
Thank you for your misspelled and misused words of wisdom. Is this for real or a parody of some sort?