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Bonds Are a 'Safe' Investment: A Big Lie Gets Even BiggerEach year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.
Elan Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: ELN) is the top speculative stock for 2007 from Ken Kam. The editor of Marketocracy's Marketscope, explains, "Last year, I also chose Elan as my top pick because I thought their multiple sclerosis drug, Tysabri, would be approved for sale again.
"It was, but it didn't happen until July. Further, the FDA then required additional testing. This slowed down the sales that I had expected and led to disappointing sales in the third quarter. However, I think this delay was a speed bump, not a brick wall. Thus, the growth I thought would occur in 2006 I now think we'll see in 2007.
"Over the next 12 months, I think Elan's price will move up as Tysabri sales accelerate in the U.S. and Europe. In addition, Elan just filed today for approval to use Tysabri to treat patients with Crohn's disease -- a patient population that may ultimately double Tysabri's sales potential.
"Besides the Tysabri sales ramp, there is one other thing that could make Elan a home run next year -- it's Alzheimer's drug program. Elan will be announcing the results of a Phase II trial of their lead Alzheimer's drug next year.
"Currently available drugs for Alzheimer's have so little effect that a new drug would not have to show much of an improvement in order to become the standard of care in a multi-billion dollar market. Good Phase II data could be a catalyst that puts Elan in a whole different league, regardless of Tysabri, even though it could still be years before their Alzheimer's drug hits the market."
To see Ken's favorite conservative stock for 2007, click here.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-21-2006 @ 6:02PM
Linda said...
Thank you, Ken, for being one of the first to see the light. Our beleaguered (but doggedly rebounding) little company has the potential--especially in its AD partnership with Wyeth--for breathtaking, explosive growth in the near future.
All the blocks are being put into place--a superior drug pipeline now buttressed by solid financial management. Finally, it's all coming together.
So, thank you for remaining a believer, and for looking beyond the hype, to evaluate Elan's true potential. Thank you for reminding us, for example, why, when people are suffering horribly, a superior treatment for MS will inevitably become the gold standard. And in your future analyses, don't forget to factor in nano--which may be a sleeper, but which also offers huge opportunities for lasting growth.
Keep the faith. I believe this company will very soon make us all very proud.
12-23-2006 @ 9:46AM
mark dee said...
Elan's "trek" to legitimacy has indeed been long and difficult.
However, as Ken has indicated, there may be light at the end of the proverbial tunnel.
Investors, and unfortunately, speculators will also be very active... and that troubling reality makes life very difficult for the company and investors.