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Top Picks 2007: Paul Tracy toasts to Diageo

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Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

Britain's Diageo (NYSE: DEO), the largest alcoholic drinks manufacturer in the world, is the top conservative pick for 2007, from Paul Tracy. The editor of StreetAuthority Market Advisor observes, "The company owns either the best-selling or second-best-selling brand of drink in every major category.

"While DEO garners most of its income from spirits, it's also a major wine and beer producer. Top-selling brands include Johnnie Walker, Tanqueray, Smirnoff, Captain Morgan, and Guinness. Diageo owns one fifth of the world's 100 top-selling liquor brands.

"DEO has benefited from two major growth sources in recent years. In the U.S., consumers continue to shift their spending in favor of premium spirits brands. Meanwhile, consumers are also moving away from beer in favor of spirits. Both trends benefit Diageo, as it owns most of the top-selling U.S. liquor brands and most of its liquors are positioned at the premium end of the market.

"More interesting in the long term is Diageo's strong growth in the developing world. DEO's international division includes Africa, Latin America, and Asia. As DEO continues to spend on marketing and enhancing its image in the developing world, its market share in these regions has room to grow.

"Diageo trades at about 16 times 2007 earnings estimates and sports a long-term growth rate of roughly 10.5%. In addition to strong, defensive growth, DEO has long demonstrated its commitment to paying solid dividends to investors. The company recently boosted its distribution again -- the stock currently yields about 3%. And with a payout ratio of just 45%, there's plenty of room for further distribution hikes."

To see Paul's favorite speculative stock for 2007, click here.

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S&P 500-26.91896.42

Last updated: July 06, 2009: 07:21 AM

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