My fellow blogger, Sheldon Liber left an invitation for explanations revealing the causes of what I shall term, "The great Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) hype of 2006". I am one of the people who have bought into that hype but it's a hype you can bank on. There seems to still be some confusion as to why Google is found by so many to be so attractive as an investment. Really friends, how do you place a benchmark or limit on such a forward operating company?
Remember as you read this that I'm not your run of the mill financial analyst. I'm not a financial analyst at all. I'm just a guy who has a special knack for getting some insight into what the consumer is probably thinking. So when I write about the magical way in which Google has swept onto the Internet with such great force, it's not about money to me. It's about quality, presentation and consumer confidence among other things.
First, Google is easy. One click gets me to a quickly loaded search page. One more click and my search type is selected. Clean, fast and easy is what attracts me first (I'm talking about web searches here). When I attempt the same thing with the other big three search engines, my first click takes three times as long to load and then the first page arrived at contains alternate distractions. The other engines are good systems, don't get me wrong. Each has its own uses for me. But when it comes to a easy quick search for most applications I use Google at a ratio of about 5 to 1. Google wins hands down.
In just the last year I have watched Google launch project after test after initiative. There's no stopping it. I'm sure as I write this there's some Google star gazer hatching its next never-before-thought-of idea. I am an options oriented, concept visualizer myself. I can't help the high level of respect that I have for people who dare to bring wild imaginings into reality. That's the type of thinking that goes on at Google. If I had my way, their mission statement would read simply, "Don't tell us it can't be done." I tend to live by that credo.
Google makes money, tons and tons and tons of it. Anyone who works in investments must have at least a bit of respect for that. Google does it (I believe) with a minimum of depreciable capital outlay. There must be a formula to review net income versus capital investment, how does Google score on that? It makes its money on the presentation of ad copy. How cool is that? If I'm not mistaken isn't that basically the same way that Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) became such a behemoth? Advertising is the goldmine of the ages. Google lives in that world. Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO), the number two player, has been struggling in it.
I can't really speak factually regarding the technically calculated value of Google stock. Yes, I could easily learn and apply all the formulas and equations needed to form that analytical data picture, but that's not my focus ... at least not yet. What I can tell you is the simplistic version: People buy Google stock because they like it. They like the company and the way it does business. They like the fact that when Google runs up against a problem or makes a mistake it "nip it in the bud" like Barney Fife on a jaywalker. They respect the Google boys and they way they have risen from obscurity to stardom. Google is an American Cinderella story. We like those.
Personally, I think the only reason that Google hasn't risen above $500 and stayed there is because it still feels like taboo to go there. Remember, it felt that same way when the DJIA was bumping 12,000 and just look where we are now. Google will break $500 again. I can't say if it will be soon. I won't hazard a guess when. But it's going to happen if the company makes no major mistakes. I'll be here to applaud it then.
Is Google a revolution or a company? Is its position a fluke or is it madness? Is it real? Is it long term? Is it viable? Can you depend on it? Well, if you expect that the Internet is going to be around a while and you like it and you use it, I feel pretty safe in telling you that Google is going to be here also. It'll be cutting a wide swath, giving you what you ask for and making a boat load of money doing it.
But that's just my opinion... and I don't own Google shares.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-22-2006 @ 1:14PM
Andy said...
Google is somewhere between Star Trek, Star Wars, and Camelot.
12-23-2006 @ 4:21PM
ben said...
Gary !
You should buy google shares. If you think that the google's business will double or triple, than you should buy their shares. Go ahead ,make those guys at google rich.
I personally do not see google's margins in profits or gross sales increasing much higher that what they are now, except maybe with the moon map?!
12-23-2006 @ 4:26PM
Gary E. Sattler said...
Ben, If I had that kind of money to work with I would buy some of their shares.
Only based on the fact that I'm hoping their shares will split soon.
12-26-2006 @ 3:47PM
Ray Gordon said...
Google makes money off of copyright infringement, defamation, click fraud, and nothing that 100 other companies couldn't also do if they didn't fear the lawsuits that Google has chosen to endure.
If Google loses the lawsuits, it's finished, and if it wins, it will have dozens of strong competitors. Time Warner got big because it had content of its own. Lots of people are getting sick of making money for Big Internet and are no longer putting stuff on the web for free.
What you will see a lot more of on Google and YouTube is commercial promotion, because advertisers don't mind having their stuff copied and redistributed.