I just had a look again at the income statement for Netflix (NASDAQ (GS):NFLX) up until September 2006. That statement is in part what I have based my prediction of the slow demise of Netflix. Granted, I'm not a CPA but looking at the numbers from my limited perspective gives me the impression that Netflix's days of rapid growth are over. It reminds me of the passing of the drive-in theater era. I would drive past on a Saturday night and the places would still be full of cars but I just had a sense that the places were dying... and die they did.
The reality of streaming broadband video must be tapping at the door over at the Netflix chambers. They can't be in denial of the fact that soon we won't need to traipse to the mailbox to pick up our movies. Yes, the time is just around the corner when you'll sit at your PC and with a few well placed clicks, you'll have your evening entertainment scheduled before the mac-and-cheese is ready to come off the stove. I'm still waiting for the first announcement of that home entertainment suite which utilizes wireless broadband to enliven your wall mounted plasma screen. I wish I could tell you who's going to make that happen first.
Please don't hate me, all you Netflix shareholders. I can't help but see what is undeniable. If you're still standing in the way of the wireless broadband flood that is sweeping in around you, it's really not my fault. I'll toss you a rope if you're not swept out to sea, but you'll probably have to wait until after I queue my movies for the evening. Perhaps the tumultuous crash of Netflix can be avoided by their acknowledgment of what is coming. You know the old saying, "If you can't beat 'em ... join 'em". I'm thinking that Netflix can be saved by simply merging with the future.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-03-2007 @ 7:54PM
Ben Drawbaugh said...
I disagree.
I don't own any Netflix stock, but have been a customer for about 5 years. There are a few reasons why Netflix will keep at least my business.
Digital downloads services aren't there yet. Too many limitations, takes too long to download, picture and sound quality is terrible.
As long as there is home theater people they will rent movies and since Digital downloads are not ready and by the time they are it will be about HD and the Internet isn't ready for everyone to start downloading HD movies.
Blu-ray offer a better experience than Digital downloads and are currently available on Netflix. Even at the fastest Broadband connections today it would take almost 2 days to download, netflix almost always delivers Blu-ray movies in this amount of time.
Sure Drive-ins aren't at an all time high, but they are still all over the country, Netflix has atleast 5-10 more years before digital downloads takes them over, assuming they aren't the first ones to release a digital download service that doesn't suck.
1-03-2007 @ 11:40PM
Will Foster said...
The one thing you're not taking into account in predicting Netflix's demise at the hands of digital downloads is that it might be Netflix itself that brings digital downloads to the market. After all, they named the company Netflix, not MoviesByMail.
1-05-2007 @ 11:39AM
Chi-Town FJW said...
I agree with Will Foster. From the very beginning, Reed Hastings has been saying that NFLX will be a movie downlaod business. They're just waiting for the technology and the demand to catch-up.
1-09-2007 @ 1:26AM
David Sperduto said...
I wonder, too, about people in rural-semirural areas which a) have only dial-up and b)are a half-hour from the nearest video store. Just wonder if that market is large enough to make a difference for at least the next 5-10 years.