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Making the Top Picks 2007 report work for you

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Having just completed the Top Picks report for 2007 – the 24th consecutive year I have surveyed the newsletter advisors for their favorite stocks -- I thought I would share some observations to help readers best use the information in this feature.

And over the next few days, I will post articles to share observations on the stocks and sectors chosen, discuss the participating advisors, and highlight some of last year's top performers to help guide you in assessing this year's report.

I'll begin today by noting some caveats that should be kept in mind by those who are considering buying stocks from among the list of Top Picks. The advisors who have participated in this year's project were asked to submit a favorite speculative and/or conservative stock for the year ahead.

It is very important for readers to realize that "conservative" and "speculative" are relative terms. What is low risk to one advisor may be risky to another. For example, one stock in the report, Canadian Oil Sands Trust (TSX: COS), was chosen as the favorite speculative idea from Gordon Pape and, at the same time, was the favorite conservative idea from Vivian Lewis.

Often an advisors view of risk is specific to the type of stocks they follow. For example, Kelley Wright focuses exclusively on blue chip stocks with long histories of dividends. Thus, even his speculative stock, banking stock Popular (NASDAQ: BPOP), is still a relatively safe, blue chip play.

By comparison, Ian Wyatt specializes in emerging small caps. Thus even his conservative pick, American Dairy (AMEX: ADY), would by all accounts be considered rather risky. As a result, on a relative basis, Ian Wyatt's conservative play is much higher on the risk scale than Kelley Wright's speculation.

In addition, an advisor's view of risk may be based on the specific sectors in which they specialize. For example, Jim Trippon invests solely in stocks that operate in China, and he selected China Life Insurance (NYSE: LFC) as his conservative stock pick. And while it may be a more conservative choice relative to his other China plays, it is nevertheless a very volatile stock, showing 15% swings both up and down over the past week and rising 13% in yesterday's trading alone.

In other words, an advisor's view of risk may be very different from your view of risk, just as their experience with trading and investing will differ from yours. Make certain that any stocks you consider meet your own investment strategy, your own time horizon and your own risk tolerance.

In addition, please be aware that the advisors are making their selections based on their current analysis of a company within the current market environment. And in today's market environment, fundamentals – and stock prices -- can change quickly.

For example, Radio Shack Corp. (NYSE: RSH) was featured as the top speculative idea from Dylan Jovine. Yesterday, the stock jumped over 11%. This is not to suggest that Dylan no longer considers the stock a buy. However, it highlights how quickly prices and fundamentals can change.

As such, it is critical that you view the 100+ stocks that were featured in this report as simply a starting point. Always do your own research, check to see any recent news that may have impacted the original recommendation, and continue to closely monitor any stocks that you buy.

Meanwhile, in the coming weeks and month, I will periodically review the stocks that were featured in this report to provide readers with updates from the advisors to help keep you informed of changes in their opinions on their Top Picks for 2007.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+132.7910,450.95
NASDAQ+29.972,176.01
S&P 500+14.861,106.24

Last updated: November 24, 2009: 08:30 AM

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