You kind of miss the point; Apple is the point. Entering a saturated market filled with boring products and carving out a niche will serve Apple well. Soon many of the young Ipod customers will graduate from college and become purchasing agents and IT techs at a multitude of firms and eventually parents. Cost will no doubt be a factor but so will their prior experiences with Apple. At the moment Apple is still a very small player in a very large game. They need only pick-up a few percentage points in the market to double the size of the company. In the short term, the market has come to value innovation almost as much as earnings. In the long-term the earnings will take care of themselves.

Beltway Greg

I know you just wanna get hits. But why don't you wait until Apple actually announces something until you slag it off? Like 3 hours to go. The iPhone might not be the thing... Also:-

"The iPod had an "early mover" advantage when it was launched in 2001. It has little more than a "late mover" advantage entering the cell phone business in 2007. And, being cool won't be good enough."

I think you'll find that the market at the time was considered saturated BEFORE Apple entered with the iPod. I remember at the time distinctly thinking "Is that it?"

"Won't be cool enough?" How old are you, Mr. McIntrye? I suspect somewhere a tad over 55, and if that's not your excuse, then you simply just have no pulse on what's hot. Go to any high school or college campus and witness "IPod Nation." What is phenomenal about IPod's success, is that users are eager to toss away their older models for newer, sleaker models. In addition to IPod being (by far) best-in-class in MP3 players, Mac laptops are now absolutely the coolest computers to have on college campuses. Students heaving around clunky Dell's are practically ridiculed. In my opinion, The IPod phone will do extremely well. This is just the beginning, though. Wait till the laptop is no bigger than the palm -- that's only a few years away -- we will all be holding delicious Apples, no doubt.

I don't agree. I think that having the iPod phone sync the address book and calendar when it charges as well as music will really make this a far better phone than any I've used. I've got quite a good Sony Ericcson phone but the MP3 functionality is really inferior. The synching is screwy. The phone is really close, the form factor, battery life, specs are really quite good. What Sony couldn't do is what Apple can do though.

Apple will also create a phone that retains value instead of being a throw-away, and I think that will also change things for the better, not just for Apple and the consumer but also ultimately for the carriers, who will no longer be able to hook people in with subsidies but will also not need to worry about phones and won't need to deal with the stupid subsidies. I think the carriers will also ultimately make more money with this.

Wow. Egregious use of "won't", "may", and "could". As the above poster recommended, why don't you wait until you see the phone and the accompanying service. But, that would not be in keeping with the Microsoft "talking points" on poo-pooing Apple announcements. Time to add to your disclaimer below: "Nothing on the service is intended to BE FOUNDED IN ACTUAL FACTS". Pathetic

Wow. Egregious use of "won't", "may", and "could". As the above poster recommended, why don't you wait until you see the phone and the accompanying service. But, that would not be in keeping with the Microsoft "talking points" on poo-pooing Apple announcements. Time to add to your disclaimer below: "Nothing on the service is intended to BE FOUNDED IN ACTUAL FACTS". Pathetic

Hey Doug, at it again are we? Boy, you sure despise APPLE don't you? Ever have anything positive to say about Jobs and Company. Did you have a fist fight with Steve and he kicked your #$$! Get off the horse would you, don't beat down a company that is on the cutting edge of technology and brings sooooo much to the party. Maybe, just maybe, you might consider buying some of their stock. Afterall, is there anything wrong with MAKING money with a WINNER, or maybe you should stay a LOSER!

So then was Sony to late to the party when they launched the original Playstation?

The iPod helped reinvent Apple. Apple has hot marketing, but even more, they have a brand that people love. If you look at the buzz (for a non-existent product), the market is huge and people really want this product. It won't fail.

"The iPod had an "early mover" advantage when it was launched in 2001."
Actually, you're quite mistaken. There were plenty of mp3 players on the market — most offered with larger capacities at lower prices — when the iPod was introduced. Apple simply offered a superior product.

Having just seen the device I suggest you are SO wrong!!!!

Saturated... THERE is NOTHING on the market that does this.

EAT

YOUR

WORDS

:-)

Hey Mr., I think you could do some research before posting a comment like this. I used to read you and your own blog, but after seeing so many posts from you without any fundament, just for the sake of bashing Apple, you have lost all your credibility with me.
BTW, you may have waited for Steve Jobs appearance at Macworld today, but since you were again in a rush to say something wrong at Apple, you have made a moron of yourself. Have you checked the ticker lately ?

I think Doug McIntrye might be the dummest stock pundit on the planet. He takes the most obvious arguments presents them in the most simple minded way
to reach the most idiotic conclusion. I wonder how he holds down his job. I guess there's big audience
for idiots out in the blogisphere.

Hey Doug, iPhone a blunder? Check the THUNDER on the ole' ticker-Fool! Told ya so, if I made comments like yours with lackluster evidence, I would be FIRED in a minute!!!!!! You must know someone in tall places or your damn lucky my friend to hold onto your JOB! Take a break from writing would ya? Come back when you have something positive to say about APPLE, it appears your going to EAT YOUR LUNCH on your foolish and childish comments. Unemployment pays around $275/week, FYI.

hey guys he may have a point. while apple is having great success with the ipod and the macbooks the cell phone market may be pushing the limits of steve jobs success. does anyone remember motorola with itunes? yeah neither does anyone else because it failed pretty terribly. another thing, only a third of the cell phone market is owned by cingular (maybe more than a third actually). with the recent surge by sprint in the mobile service provider category as wlel as the constant dominance by verizon, im not quite sure the there will be enough cingular customers buying the iphone (just like the motorola with itunes for cingular). cingular is trying to push the limits for the newest and "coolest" cell phones anyway, the other more established companies arent gonna just sit on their asses. Macs succeed so much in the mp3 and computer industry because of a comparison of simplicity, power, and design with pc's and pc brand players. there isnt as much difference in the cell phone world so doug mcintyre may have a point. maybe this isnt a steve jobs bashing after all...
sincerely,
ipodlover101

This is great! This is going to be one of those comments that goes down in history. Remember this one? "64k should be enough memory for anybody." Or, this one? "I see a global market for 4 or 5 computers." I saw the iPhone today, and I saw the future.

iPhone = Gamechanger.

Steve Jobs just ate your lunch and is now making you leave the tip.

I think most of you have this wrong. I did not write an article on what the stock would do today. I wrote that the iPhone will do poorly. It will take a couple of quarters to see if that prediction is right or not.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Oooh!

No. I think you wrote your article on what YOU thought the iPhone would be - viz a mobile phone with an ipod built in.

And you were wrong.

But, as you say, it will take a couple of quarters to see if you are right... Meanwhile the wonders of this interweb thingy will archive your instructive missive and be laughed at down the generations.

Hey Doug, can you FEEL the warm reception you get from your irresponsible posts??? Ever think of making a career change? They need writers for "MAD" magazine, maybe you should apply!!!!!!!

If you want to get a real earful on why the iPhone may not work out, head over to Herb Greenberg's column at MarketWatch.

Doug McIntyre