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A preview of Motorola's quarterly results this week

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The world's second-largest wireless handset maker -- Motorola Inc. (NYSE:MOT) -- said last week that its profit for its fiscal fourth quarter would most likely miss estimates. Again, we see that analysts control the share price of companies based on "estimates" gleaned from past quarters and educated guesses. Nothing new to see here.

Motorola all but said that profit growth industrywide -- the wireless industry, that is -- is slowing more than forecast. So, that begs the question -- will Nokia disappoint as well? Samsung -- the world's third-largest wireless handset maker -- is seeing profits dip 8% for its latest quarter. Maybe Motorola is onto something here.

So, what are your estimates for Motorola's fourth quarter results? While Motorola CEO Ed Zander was joking about his company's finances last week while touting new Motorola products, should he have been explaining more about how Motorola is going to shore up its profit levee soon?

Here is a breakdown of Motorola's guidance a little over a week ago that sent Motorola (NYSE:MOT) shares sliding into a semi-deep abyss:

  • Sales will fall about $200 million to $300 million short of previous guidance, coming in most likely in the range of $11.6 billion to $11.8 billion.
  • Profits per share will likewise miss the internal forecast, approximating $0.13 to $0.16 per share, net. Detracting from those earnings, and most likely ignored by most analysts, will be the usual slew of non-cash "one-time items" such as stock-option expensing, charges for reorganizations and "investment-related losses," and "unusual" taxes.
  • Margins will suffer badly. According to management, it actually beat its own predictions for cell phone sales, moving 66 million units' worth of product, a 48% volume improvement over last year's Q4. Unfortunately, it has had trouble selling its higher-priced phones, and a good portion of the sales it did make appear to have been low-end phones, many of which were likely sold in the developing world. Those kinds of sales look great when factored into the market share numbers -- but I dread seeing what they'll do to margins when Motorola reports its Q4 numbers.

Also check out some other earnings reports that we're following, and let us know your thoughts on earnings expectations.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 07:27 PM

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