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Pfizer can't get it up

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Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) just can't quite get it up anymore. Analysts are calling for a hold and estimating a 42 cent-a-share earnings report for the fourth quarter of 2006. This is the same as year-ago numbers and three cents less than third quarter earnings of 45 cents-a-share.

Little wonder analysts are unenthusiastic -- Pfizer is a big player that's been going through some seriously deflating times recently.

In early December, the company was forced to call off clinical trials of its "good cholesterol" drug Torcetrapib, due to safety concerns. The company had hoped to pair this drug with its main revenue driver Lipitor, the best-selling cholesterol drug ever, which brings in some $12 billion in annual revenue, when Lipitor's patent protection runs out in 2010.

Big Pharma lives and dies by its blockbuster drugs. But by the end of this year, New York-based Pfizer will have limped through three years of patent protection losses on big-name drugs like its anti-depressant Zoloft and blood pressure pill Norvasc.

The company has said it doesn't foresee being able to lift revenue -- $51 billion in 2005 -- until at least 2009 when new products will hopefully be able to pick up the slack.

Without something sexy coming down the pipeline soon, Pfizer is now relying on reactive measures like big layoffs to trim costs. The company already announced in November that it planned to cut some 20% of its U.S. sales force, and just today (Jan. 16) Pfizer said it would make deeper cuts when it announces its 2006 earnings next Monday (Jan. 22).

Deutsche Bank analyst Barbara Ryan told MarketWatch today that she expects at least 2,000 layoffs in foreign sales, particularly in Europe. She also estimates another 4,000 to 5,000 workers could be eliminated elsewhere in the company. The R&D budget should remain flattish, she said.

Big Pharma watchers know that the loss of torcetrapib was a body blow and that it will take some time for Pfizer to regain its footing. Analysts are unlikely to be surprised if the company misses its earnings by a bit. But what next? Good question.

Also check out some other earnings reports that we're following, and let us know your thoughts on earnings expectations.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 03:40 PM

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