It's been almost a week since Citigroup analyst Eileen Furukawa mentioned in a research note the possible merger between the two satellite radio companies. That note renewed merger speculations, causing the stocks to gain significantly over the next few days. Well, today we saw satellite radio plunge after an FCC official said the merger wouldn't win approval under FCC rules.
Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:XMSR) shares tumbled 6.99% and 9.86% today respectively, just after the chairman of the Federal Communications Commission, Kevin Martin, said, "There is a prohibition on one entity owning both of these businesses." The ban was written in 1997 when the companies were licensed.
So while both Sirius and XM CEOs have recently talked in favor of a merger, further fueling speculations, serious hurdles still exist. For those in favor of a merger, however, all hope is not lost. According to some analysts, the FCC might defer to the U.S. Department of Justice. Depending on how broad a market the Department takes into account, it might still approve, opening the door for the FCC.
Analysts still disagree on the probability of a merger, but if the merger is to occur, almost everybody agrees it should happen by the end of the year while Republicans still carry more weight.
It seems investors today were given a shot of reality, grounding them back in place and reminding them speculations are just that. Until any speculations materialize, fundamentals carry more weight -- and fundamentals aren't that pretty.
Last updated: May 21, 2012: 08:48 AM
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-18-2007 @ 6:32PM
grobworthy said...
We knew that the current rules stated no one entity could own both. The question was would the FCC allow a merger anyway. This question still exists. All the FCC was doing was doing was stating the current rules. He also stated the FCC would examine any transaction submitted to it. The party isn't over yet.
1-18-2007 @ 9:06AM
EMIL J KOVACH JR said...
Let's See If I Got This Right--"We Knew That The Current Rules STATED One Entity COULD NOT Own Both, The Question Was, Would The FCC Allow A Merger Anyway"
SO--What Part About The Answer NO--Don't You Understand?
EMIL J KOVACH JR
1-17-2007 @ 7:23PM
L. Soroca said...
The FCC is very unpredictable. They allowed BPL over high voltage wires even though it was proven this causes interference to other low frequency services like shortware and amateur radio.
So the FCC has a mind of its own and does what ever it wants. Whoever pays them the most money will eventually get what they want. That is how Washington works. That is how America works!
1-18-2007 @ 8:19AM
EMIL J KOVACH JR said...
The Public Owned Airwaves--RULED By The FCC--Is Not An Amatuers Game--These Rules APPLY To All License Holders--To Plead Financial Poverty--To Save A Broadcaster--Has Always Fallen Upon Deaf Ears--In This Forum--These SATS Will Not Go Silent--There Are Other Broadcasters That would LOVE To Run The Show-- At Both Of These Places--That's The Market's Answer--
The FTC--Is Not Going To Allow One Owner--To Be In Charge Of Fixing Fees--NOT GOING TO HAPPEN--The FCC IS Not Going To Allow A Monoploy In Sat Broadcsting--The DOJ Is Not Going To Allow Control Of One Market Through Single Ownership--And Single Rate Control.
What Were You Thinking?
EMIL J KOVACH JR
1-17-2007 @ 11:02PM
Donnie D said...
The merger between Sirius and XM will happen after a series of hearings and investigations by governmental agencies with jurisdiction over the matter.
Informed sources say that the initial posturing by Chairman Kevin Martin was simply usual theatrical posturing. Now it is up to lobbyists and advocates for the two SATRAD players to make it happen.
Odds favor that they will succeed.
1-18-2007 @ 12:17PM
EMIL J KOVACH JR said...
Everybody Around DC--Knows How This Game is Played--
The Golden Rule--HE WHO HAS THE GOLD--MAKES THE RULES
But, In This Case--We Are Talking About The Single Ownership Of A Right To Set And Charge Subscription Fees--And A VERY BROAD And Potentially VERY Large Market.
Unfortunately Jack Abramoff--Is Serving Hard Time--As Of NOV 26th--So The Wanters Of This Merger Will Have To Find Someone New--I Just do Not See A Good Arguement--To All 3 Agencies--Or More--And An Oversite Commitee--That Single Ownership--Is A Better Value To The Market Place--Then Letting two Hungry Players Bring Value To This Market And Stock Holders--Just Do Not See It As A Possibility.
FAR TO MANY Public Eyes On This Deal--
EMIL J KOVACH JR
1-18-2007 @ 5:11PM
John Doe said...
EMIL J KOVACH JR - How many shares did you short?
1-18-2007 @ 9:27AM
john said...
As to the SATRADs, the future has not been decided. If i-pods, traditional radio, CD's downloadable, Wi- Fi,SatTV and any number of other things to hear and communicate through (while mobile)are considered as part of the market, then anything could happen. I suspect that SATRAD is a great enough product at a reasonable price and that healthy competition will keep it that way. Since the value is there, nothing keeps the two from raising rates; it's what the cable companies have done (don't we all know)with their monopoly in many areas; thereby making Sat TV profitable. I'm bullish on SATRAD without a merger because the value is there and the growth will remain great for a long time as it becomes the 'norm' in new cars. After all, it ain't much more than a 'value meal'. John
1-18-2007 @ 5:28PM
EMIL J KOVACH JR said...
For Those Who Want To Know--I Do Not Now--Or Ever Did Own A Single Share Of XM Or Sirius--I Don't Make My Money In The Stock Market--
Buy The Way--I Don't Own Mutual Funds--Or Invest In Private Equity Or Hedge Funds
Sorry Guys
1-18-2007 @ 6:52PM
EMIL J KOVACH JR said...
If The Two Players Of This Merger Game--Both Truly Want It--It Will Be In The Arguement Presented To The Market Place--
So Far--It Could Not Not Have Been More Wrong.
Some One Once Asked Me For An Example Of Bad Legal Advice
This--Merger Roll Out--Could Be It.
No I'm Not An Attorney--Either
EMIL J KOVACH JR
1-18-2007 @ 6:32PM
grobworthy said...
What part of "Being Wrong" don't you understand Emil J Nobodycares JR? The FCC didn't say NO afterall. Huh. In fact they said the rule could be changed. But you thought that was a definitive NO. Of course you don't own shares. They're called derivitives.
1-19-2007 @ 6:53AM
EMIL J KOVACH JR said...
Sorry--I Don't Own Any derivitives Either--
And You Are Right--The FCC ENFORCES RULES--The Current Rule--On This Duoply Says--They CANNOT MERGE--But Rules Can Be Changed--
He's Not Going To Say--They CANNOT BE CHANGED--Is He.
So--How Do We Change the Rule?
It Seems To Me--We Never Ask A question--We Don't Know The Answer Too--Are You Getting It Now.
EMIL J KOVACH JR
1-20-2007 @ 10:05AM
EMIL J KOVACH JR said...
The Only Way--For The FCC--To Change A NO--To A Yes--Is To Change It's Definition--Of What A "MARKET" Is--Or In This Case--WAS--At The Time These Two Licenses' Were issued--A Compelling Arguement To How Broad The Market Is Today--And What New Market Forces Have emerged--since Then Must Be Made--If That Is A Successfull Arguement--They MAY Allow It--But We Are Left With The Same--500 Pound Gorilla--In The Room--The New Company--Is The SOLE OWNER--Of The Right To Set And Charge Subscription Fees--To These SPECIAL--Limited Reception--Radios--
That Is Ware The FTC--Federal Trade Commission--And DOJ--Dept Of Justice--May See Big Problems--
The Only Reasonable Way Out Of That--Is Through A Market Levelling Choice--Against Obsolescence To The ORIGINAL Subscribers Radios--If They Do Not Want To Pay For The New Owners--Programs Or Higher Fees--
I Suspect--The Best Way To Answer That Is To Make Available--All Programming To All Subscribers--With A Substantial Amount Of FREE Programming--If The Existings Subscribers--Do Not Want Anything To Do With The New Company--So It Would Be A Combination Of--Premium--pay Channels--And Some Free--To everybody WHo Nows Has--Or Wants To Buy A New Radio--After The Merger
Quetion Number 2--
As Is Regularly Asked Around The "K" Street Area:
HOW MUCH JUSTICE CAN These Players Afford?
Well--I Guess We Will Find Out--
As They Use To Say In The Radio Business--Stay Tuned.
BY THE WAY--The Market Is Full Of Surveys--Showing terrestrial Is Constanly Losing Listeners To SAT--
I Suspect Terrestrial--Is Not Going To Take This Merger--If It Happens--Sitting Down.
EMIL J KOVACH JR