Sirius, XM -- party's over -- FCC wouldn't approve the merger


It's been almost a week since Citigroup analyst Eileen Furukawa mentioned in a research note the possible merger between the two satellite radio companies. That note renewed merger speculations, causing the stocks to gain significantly over the next few days. Well, today we saw satellite radio plunge after an FCC official said the merger wouldn't win approval under FCC rules.

Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:XMSR) shares tumbled 6.99% and 9.86% today respectively, just after the chairman of the Federal Communications Commission, Kevin Martin, said, "There is a prohibition on one entity owning both of these businesses." The ban was written in 1997 when the companies were licensed.

So while both Sirius and XM CEOs have recently talked in favor of a merger, further fueling speculations, serious hurdles still exist. For those in favor of a merger, however, all hope is not lost. According to some analysts, the FCC might defer to the U.S. Department of Justice. Depending on how broad a market the Department takes into account, it might still approve, opening the door for the FCC.

Analysts still disagree on the probability of a merger, but if the merger is to occur, almost everybody agrees it should happen by the end of the year while Republicans still carry more weight.

It seems investors today were given a shot of reality, grounding them back in place and reminding them speculations are just that. Until any speculations materialize, fundamentals carry more weight -- and fundamentals aren't that pretty.

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