What happens if you miss a show? Yesterday I wrote about investment strategist and "Mad Money" host Jim Cramer changing his opinion so swiftly (see: Cramer pumps tech, then hates it days later). I started thinking about the repercussions of missing the second show. Suppose you had seen the show promoting technology stocks last week and missed the show where he did an about face, trashing the sector in the blink of an eye? If you chose to act on last weeks supremely confident push into tech and were still buying when Cramer was telling everyone to dump tech stocks -- that could definitely cost you big!
I oppose rapid fire trading. I oppose short term trading as speculation, not investing. Cramer has every right to change his mind and he is usually honest when it comes to admitting his mistakes. He does get you to think; that's a good thing. And he does have some good ideas given so much experience on Wall Street to share; there is no question about that either. But as time passes his show continues to move more in the direction of entertainment and further from investment guidance. So watch it with that in mind.
Cramer has attracted a strong following. Not only has he started a media empire but he has inspired many websites that are tracking his commentary and stock picks. It is well understood now that a Cramer bump takes effect after he makes a buy recomendation. A new level of sophistication to tracking his picks and pans would be to figure out what happens if you miss a show? What happens if you only watch every other show? What happens if you only watch the first half or the last half? Is it possible to create an algorithm to monitor the time and frequency of Cramer viewing so that you could hedge in favor of better results? Alas, this would this be the unauthorized new "Cramer Hedge Fund" for the 21st century....now I'm being silly....bring me back to earth.
I would like to express my sympathy to all of you investment advisors out there throughout the country and throughout the world perhaps, that each day must now respond to your clients inquiries and comments about what Cramer said. This must be getting old fast. It must be particularly tough when you are trying to help someone establish long term goals and understand issues of portfolio asset allocation and having to repond to daily play-by-play heckling stimulated by a television show.
As for Cramer's recent tech swings, I think he was wrong in both cases. I think the tech sector will be jumping all over the place all year. You should pick companies, not sectors, to invest in.
Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here. Be sure and read You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-19-2007 @ 1:46PM
Bob Cooper said...
Excellent article; I've thought about this myself. Cramer is also adept at giving a buy-and-sell recommendation on the same stock; ergo he is right no matter which way the stock goes. For example, he likes XYZ which has had a strong move up. He tells caller to take some off table if he holds it or buy if he don't. In a few weeks, if XYZ is down, he goes into his hogs get slaughtered routine and you should have sold. If XYZ is up, then he talks about what a great pick it was.
1-19-2007 @ 2:25PM
Kim Hammond said...
I think Cramer works in a field that is rigged and against the average investor.Its a circus watching him on "crack" doing his thing.As this article states,so much is hype and the average guy doesn't have the set up to respond and win. The big guys-Brokerage Houses- do,they control it and make vast wealth on us all.Since the stock market has been on TV it has become frenetic beyond belief.Its all hype.
1-19-2007 @ 2:33PM
ANNE said...
Absolutely great advise, many times one must analyse
your goals in the stock market, For older folks trying to maintain the portfolio, dividend paying stock are paramount, so I don't pay any attention to all the jabber about stocks like lucent and jdsu.
Been there done that and God willing never again, No speculation for this person.
1-19-2007 @ 2:56PM
gary said...
i personally have my retirement in mutual funds. but in defense of cramer, i think he actually teaches the novice investor quite a bit. ive been investing for over 20 years and i wont miss watching cramer. ive picked up some tips i never would have from any published material. i use my mad money on trading stocks.
1-19-2007 @ 3:02PM
Bill Miller said...
I love this article. I do not wish to degrade Jim Cramer but, while on the one hand his television show is a good tool for the investing public, the reverance sometimes displayed for him is a bit scary. He is bright, smart, experienced, capable and insightful and I am jealous of his knowledge but, he is also very human and has many mistakes besides those he readily admits too from time to time. What is especially of concern to me (since I am in the industy) is the trading activity in the stocks he supports or does not support. In all cases, it would be best for the average investor to take his advice and do your homework, and then wait a few trading days before responding to his recommendations.
His dramatic presentations influence investors and that is okay. But, when it comes to his predictions he is as flawed as many of us are as well. You see we are humans too.
1-19-2007 @ 3:59PM
Elliot Tescher said...
Terrific article. The part of Jim's shtic that I don't approve of is that if you follow the tape after one of his recommendations, he is moving the market, albeit he does say that one should not buy in the aftermarket. Some regulatory agency should look into this situation and make Jim give his opinions after the aftermarket trading day has ended.
1-19-2007 @ 4:36PM
Elliot Tescher said...
Terrific article. The part of Jim's shtic that I don't approve of is that if you follow the tape after one of his recommendations, he is moving the market, albeit he does say that one should not buy in the aftermarket. Some regulatory agency should look into this situation and make Jim give his opinions after the aftermarket trading day has ended.
1-19-2007 @ 5:56PM
Lisa said...
I'm a buy-and-hold investor anyways, and I don't go along with ANYONE who tells me to sell at a predetermined point or when a stock falls out of favor. I may not be an investing genius, but I consistently beat the market by refusing to sell short-term. That's not to say that a couple of my picks haven't tanked. They have. In spite of that, my portfolio as a whole continues to outperform the market.
To be fair, I do take a glance at Cramer's latest picks from time to time for investment ideas, then research those stocks myself and make a decision to purchase, wait to purchase, or not purchase as the circumstances warrant.
1-19-2007 @ 11:40PM
owenkelly1@aol.com said...
I personally think Jim Cramer should be investigated by the SEC. Let's say I put up $20,000 to by JDSU today, I come home and Jim Cramer tells everyone to get out of Tech, and he even mentions sell JDSU, now depending on the price I paid for JDSU, with in hours my stock will plung, do you think that is right. His show does not help anyone, it helps Jim Cramer.
1-20-2007 @ 12:43PM
S Sutton said...
Cramer is pure entertainment and provides some good tips. It's obvious from my own research that his picks cause an increase and corresponding drop of stock prices on those he recommends. My opinion.....listen in and use his info as a tool for your investing tool box but not a primary source for investment choices.
1-20-2007 @ 1:16PM
Bob Paley said...
The SEC should not allow these talk show hosts to tout stock, but rather, report on the business news. I do not even give credence to charitable trusts or foundations as those loopholes seem to benefit the originator or their friends and relatives.
And the Cramer show is broadcast at 6:00 and taped at 4:00 when all the stocks touted are moving up or down on the ticker already...to late for the typical investor. A very bothersome technique is when the guy says he'll talk about a sector the next day, and then, when he starts talking about the sector (such as Eye Care last year)...the stocks are surging already...to late for you and I to purchase the stock.
Cramer is not around to make you money. He sells books, he misleads the public, he double talks...and one clever technique is that he'll spend ten minutes touting a sotck...then say "buy later when lower! There may be some who do not hear that last part. I think this guy is a joke. I just wonder what type of work he had in the investment community years ago, and whether he was nice and sincere during his earlier career?
1-20-2007 @ 1:37PM
Aliron1314 said...
Below is an excellent post. Cramer ALWAYS stresses doing your own homework then making a decision...NOT doing something "right now" because he has talked about it. He is a positive influence for getting people into the market who have never had an interest (me) and a decent man with a good heart!
10. Cramer is pure entertainment and provides some good tips. It's obvious from my own research that his picks cause an increase and corresponding drop of stock prices on those he recommends. My opinion.....listen in and use his info as a tool for your investing tool box but not a primary source for investment choices.
Posted at 12:43PM on Jan 20th 2007 by S Sutton 0
1-20-2007 @ 1:50PM
Philip said...
This article is terrible. Mad Money is all about MAD money. How to pick stocks that are going to jump in the near future not about saving for your retirement in funds. Also, Cramer never tells anybody to buy or sell until doing your research. He makes that very clear. Yea he sells his boook to make more money but his tips are great. He says the stock is great but wait for it to come down because thats the way to maximize your gains and decrease the risk of losing money. Who wold in their right mind buy a stock at a high point instead of waiting for it to come down a bit before he goes even higher than before. Cramer is king
1-21-2007 @ 8:15PM
OTTO RIGHI said...
cramer the HYPE machine hurts more people than he helps. His book says buy and hold/homework but he promotes day tradeing. SPENDS WEEKS PROMOTING CHK THAN WHEN STOCK DROPS NEVER TALKS ABOUT IT AGAIN.
1-20-2007 @ 6:12PM
Dan said...
If you are a wise investor, NOT ONE PERSON BUT YOU, should affect the Final decision to "pull the trigger".
While Cramer is often times informative with his recommendations I agree that they should be presented in a less bias manner. On the other hand, it is a television show, so of course there is an underlying element of entertainment. Due to this element of entertainment, he has managed to hold the interest of the average american longer than most. As a result an immense stream of public interest, and capital from the average American who would not otherwise be investing, has poured into the market over the course of 2006.
1-21-2007 @ 6:58AM
Michael Schneider said...
In regard to Jim Cramer's about-face on technology, he told people to buy tech when he was aware of the seasonal factors which usually don't show up until the end of February. In fact he had said that this year would be different because of the release of VISTA by Microsoft which will stimulate computer buying and the related peripherals and semiconductors. VISTA is still coming so what explained the chnge of mind? The stocks started selling off. So the move was probably based on momentum although there hes been some criticism of VISTA. Cramer still said to keep 5 stocks and then he listed more that he likes that are special situations like Marvel Technology. Those who watch his show typcally can't buy all the tech stocks he likes anyway so they have to select. There is good argument for some of the stocks he likes such as Apple Computer but I think that if there is a major correction in tech the big stocks that have moved a lot- which include his keepers- may be hit hardest. It depends on why the correction occurs. If it is because some hedge fund is in trouble, the biggies will get tossed out and that will create a good buying opp. maybe. If it is because the economy is slowing then some of the bigger techs might be safe havens and hold up better than smaller techs. If it is just a bout of profit-taking, it could be safe to hold techs for the long term and look for bargains among the smaller techs- and it could be that the view of VISTA stimulating tech buying will create interest in tech stocks. So what is the reason for the pullback in tech? Probably a touch of all 3 explanations but, so far, the only guilty verdict is on profit-taking and the only thing to do is watch what unfolds. BTW, Jim Cramer has recommended more tech stocks than any other market sector and you can find a free list of over 100 tech bull sign stocks from his Lightning Round as well as other Cramer sector stock lists at Barrelomoney.com.
1-21-2007 @ 7:56AM
C Clark said...
Anyone who buys / sells in after hour trading based on Cramer's picks/pans has lost their mind. Last week, he trashed Tech with 5 BUY/HOLD recs. I put a watch list together of the 5 prior to the market open the following day! 100 shares of each stock. Wow, down 2% on the day and almost $2000. Investors need to act as investors and not as speculators. Remember what Yogi Berra said: "You can observe a lot just by watching" and "In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is." These two principles can serve you well.
Another wise man stated, "In bull markets one can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets, one can only be short or neutral".
Cramer's show has more in it for day traders than for buy and hold investors. The market is "a little confused" the past week..thank God for recent spike in 4-5% MM accounts. When things get confused I get out.
1-21-2007 @ 1:53PM
Michael Schneider said...
Who buys Jim Cramer's recommendations in after hours? Probably professional traders and brokerages get in there and then resell.