Texas Instruments minority report

The folks at ThinkEquity believe that Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) is in for better days. They slapped an "accumulate" on the shares after carrying them as a "sell." The reason given was that TI's analog chip business should be getting better. ThinkEquity admits that the TI cell phone chip business is going to be rough for a long time. But, the research firm's sources say that the analog chip pick-up is broad and sustained. They put a new price target of $30 on the stock. It already trades above $28.

Almost any other research firm on Wall Street with an opinion on TI is worried about the stock. Stifel Nicolaus thinks TI's gross margins are down. Cathay Financial thinks that weakness in handset chips is continuing into 2007. And, Lehman Bros. has cut its earnings estimates for the big chip firm. Part of Lehman's analysis is that the analog business at TI is still "challenging."

Someone is right here and someone is wrong.

TI has two strikes on it. One is that it competes with Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) in the handset chip market. QCOM has seen better days, but it has formidable market share in the handset market. In addition to that, almost no one thinks that handset giants Nokia (NYSE:NOK) and Motorola (NYSE:MOT) will do well in 2007. Margins are dropping because the demand for phones tends to be in emerging markets where cheap is better. Cheaper phones, cheaper chips.

Analog may do OK for TI. But, it can't beat the devil. The handset market is in for some rough quarters.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.