Dow Jones OK, but Dow Chemical better

I expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) will continue its upward trend in 2007 although not by the same margin that it did in 2006. On the other hand, I expect The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE:DOW) to beat the DJIA and be one of the success stories of the year. I outlined many reasons for this in Dow Chemical: a solid pick for 2007. Three weeks have passed since this story was published, but I am feeling even better about it today than I did originally.

I have already outlined the fundamental financial data, stock buybacks and dividends, but there is another trend that will contribute to stronger returns: The fall in oil prices, a major cost component in many of its 3500 products, is down by 30%. This should be a very positive influence on DOW's bottom line during the next few quarters. While lower oil prices reduce product costs, lower overall energy prices will also contribute to profits because DOW has major infrastructure as an old line company. Unlike services companies and Internet companies that keep plant and operations to a minimum, companies like DOW pay a penalty when energy prices go up and receive a benefit when they go down. It is as if they were running a brokerage account with margin leverage; the good times and bad times are exaggerated.

We have already witnessed James Cramer do an about face on technology stocks and he has started to turn more Bearish on the overall market after being all hyped up just two weeks ago. My picks will haunt me all year. I did not make one pick I could not live with, this year, and for the next ten.

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here. Be sure and read You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.