I'm about to start live blogging the webcast of eBay Inc.'s (NASDAQ:EBAY) 2006 Q4 report which should start at 5:00 p.m..
Please remember to refresh as I'll be constantly updating this post.
The quick reaction to the numbers, you can find here.
To listen to the webcast yourself, go here.
As always is the case in these events, my computer just crashed.
I'm finally in and I believe am listening to the boring early stuff.
Now Meg Whitman, eBay's CEO:
5:05: She says 2006 was a great success with some challenges.
5:07: Meg gives the numbers for Q4. Meg says eBay exits 2006 as the leader in Commerce, Payment and Communication. Of course, she added her favorite, Power of Three thing.
5:10: I must say Meg sounds a lot calmer than previous quarters I did this. She know she had a winner quarter. After talking about the commerce part, she's talking about Skype, saying it has superior quality, the size of Skype tripled and less competition. Now PayPal - processed more the 465 million transactions (I hope I heard right). PayPal processed 25% of Skype. Now the challenges.
5:11: She mentioned the fee increase as a way to improve consumer experience. Now the Skype problems. Not growing as fast as expected. There are other challenges as for all Internet companies and yet eBay delivered.
5:13: Q4 successes: higher conversion rates, higher traffic in commerce. PayPal processed more transactions. Skype grew at a great rate too.
GMV growth of 14%. Electronics and Motors had good quarter. Germany had higher GMV, Australia and UK higher volume. Europe showed solid growth.
China -- eBay learned the lesson, she says, and collaborated with a local player. eBay is committed to the Chinese market, Meg says.
5:16: Meg is talking about something very dear to many users: security. She mentioned all the measures they took.
Shopping.com now - Meg says it's the leading site in the U.S. and number one in Australia. Classified - this portfolio of sites - claims the number of visitors is bigger than the one to major newspapers like The New York Times.
5:18: PayPal adoption all over the world is increasing. Meg is listing the number of merchants that signed with PayPal this quarter. Merchants, she says, see increasing growth when they add PayPal. A winning quarter for PayPal. Yay!
5:20: Skype - launched applications and products this quarter. Each time Meg gets to Skype, I get the feeling she braces her self. She went through Skype quickly.
Overall - Meg says eBay is positioned well but also gives the plan for 2007 to handle the challenges. This includes more security, higher growth in Skype, increasing reach on the web. Increasing monetization of Skype.
5:22: Heading to 2007, Meg says, she believes she could deliver to the shareholders. (By the way, shares are up 10.7% in after-hours.) Meg closes - pleased with momentum.
5:24: Bob Swan, eBay's CFO is now talking. He gives the numbers. The weaker dollar again contributed to profits. EPS was 3 cents higher than eBay's guidance. Cash flow was also strong.
Segment results: US - 17% growth. International - 32% growth. GMV grew 17%.
5:27: Store listings growth continue to slow - part of eBay's attempt to rebalance the market place. In the U.S., store listings slowed by 2%. Sony PlayStation 3 and Nintendo Wii contributed to strong electronics sales.
5:29: Europe was strong. Asia: Korea - believe eBay kept its market share and actually grew GMV. Asia is still a challenge. (I want to hear more about China).
eBay Express showed good progress in the quarter (that's what we wanted to hear).
Yahoo! started selling eBay inventory and Bob says they are pleased with this progress.
Classified has three digit y/y growth. The shopping season quarter was strong driven by some hot products and good marketing campaigns.
5:32: PayPal added 10 million accounts globally this quarter. Penetration rates are growing in the U.S, UK, Germany. Bob keeps giving PayPal numbers, which, on the surface, seem excellent. PayPal had an excellent quarter, Bob says, contributing to overall growth.
5:34: Now Skype. Skype growth in Asia was strong. Again, Skype review was over pretty fast. Hmmmm...
5:36: Overall now. Operating margin actually declined - uh oh. eBay offset this with weaker dollar and something else I didn't get.
5:37: Full year 2006: Revenue up 31% over 2005. Top line growth was impacted by slower growth in the US and the rebalancing, challenges in China.
Share repurchase and cash flow - $1.7 billion in free cash flow. Talk about the share repurchase plan. Expects to take opportunities as they come.
Guidance for 2007: First Bob goes over what will and will not affect 2007. The partnership with Tom Online in China will have a marginally negative impact. The StubHub purchase will have a slightly accretive impact on 2007 EPS. Operating margins: 33% EPS $1.25-1.29. Free cash flow $1.85 billion. 28-30 cents EPS in Q1.
Question time:
5:45: Wants to hear about the Classified and total growth -- acquisition vs. organic. Bob says acquisition added 3 points to growth. Meg talks about Classified - says eBay's focused on growing it internationally w/o plans in the U.S.
5:47: Anthony Noto from Goldman asks two questions: one about share repurchase, the other about GMV. Bob answers the first part and talks how they're looking to capitalize on opportunity and try to have the strongest balance sheet while executing the share repurchase program. He thinks they're doing it right. Now Meg will talk about market place. She still expects to see a change in the listings, but what eBay is focusing on now is better quality products so that buyers would have a better experience. This would bring better GMV by Q3 (did I hear this right?) and rebalance the market place.
5:49: Question about conversion. Also question about Skype conversion too. Bob answers the first part about improving conversion rates. He says conversion rates were improved practically globally. This drove Q4 performance. Now the SkypeMe button conversion. Listings with SkypeMe had positive feedback. She claims business increases due to these buttons.
5:52: Missed the first question but the second is about Google Checkout (yes!). The first was about the new manager Meg brought from Europe. She's answering. Says she brought two managers for the purpose of improving auction and Skype. She says we'll see some innovative ideas in auction. Now Google Checkout. Meg is addressing the question. PayPal was a great quarter - remarkable, she says. She thinks PayPal actually benefited from the entry of Checkout. She compares the two services. PayPal gives consumers and merchants more flexibility compared to Checkout and so somehow it benefitted from the Checkout hype.
5:56: Piper Jaffray: Consumer Electronics growth - Bob says that indeed eBay disproportionately benefited from the hype around these products, improving GMV too. (So my question is - what will happen in Q1). Bob couldn't give the exact contribution. Meg is adding a point - says that even browsers who only wanted to look at the game consoles ended up buying something else.
5:59: StubHub of course. Asks what TicketMaster could do against counterfeit. StubHub would be a strong business, albeit with lower GMV. Meg will work with other companies about the counterfeiting.
6:01: Bob is answering a question about Yahoo! relationship, which still didn't have much impact on Shopping.com revenue. About China, Bob says, they think this is the best way for eBay to tackle this market long-term. Shopping.com is mostly transaction revenue and advertising revenue.
eBay is up 11.2% in after-hours.
6:04: Meg says Nicklaus and Janus are very involved with Skype and keep thinking and trying to find ways of how to monetize Skype better. Another question about StubHub. Bob says they expect about $100-105 million in revenue. Deal should close in February.
6:06: Meg is talking about the search results with Yahoo!. Says green light about it! Good!
6:08: Question about integration of Google and Skype and customer service at PayPal. So first the Google pack. The integration of Skype in Google Pack is a thumbs up to Skype that Google has chosen to integrate it. As for customer service, Meg says, they can always do better, but they're quite happy with the customer support level right now.
6:10: Bear Stearns is asking about user metrics and user activity. First, listings mix, she can't say exactly what it will be eventually. As for user metrics, most are actually positive. The one that concerns analysts, she says, doesn't really seem to affect the business that much.
So it's 6:12 and we're done.
I must say that compared to previous quarters, this webcast seemed to have been very relaxed. No wonder when eBay is up 12.4% in after-hours!




Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-24-2007 @ 6:52PM
Randy Smythe said...
Well, I was wrong. I didn't see these numbers coming. Props to the eBay management team for a solid quarter. There are still some big issues to tackle but thanks to PayPal, the value of the dollar, the PS3 and Wii eBay had a good quarter.
1-24-2007 @ 10:50PM
Marsello said...
Wow this comes as a complete surprise, I never expected numbers like this!!! Stocks up big time after hours, I guess I miss the boat on this one.