It can't get any worse for satellite radio investors, and yet it does. Yesterday Bear Stearns cut its forecast for year-end 2007 subscriber counts for Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:XMSR). The bank took its forecast for Sirius to a range of 8.1 million to 8.2 million. The previous estimate was 8.5 million. For XM, Bear dropped its range to 9.2 million to 9.3 million from a previous target of 10 million.
Two days ago, Pacific Crest also cut its rating on XM, saying a merger with Sirius is unlikely.
At its current market cap of $5.32 billion and six million subscribers, Sirius has a value per subscriber of about $890. For XM, the number is about $700 based on its 7.6 million subscribers. But, the cost per month for Sirius subscribers to take the service is $12.95. So, it takes 68 months for a customer to cover that ratio of market cap per subscriber. That would assume no subscriber churn and customers who stay around almost six years.
Wacky math.
Douglas A McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
1-24-2007 @ 9:18AM
Steve Flint said...
You're right Doggie, you do use wacky math. Where does advertising dollars figure into your equation?
Oh yeah, it doesn't.
The only thing that's wacky Doggie is you.
Sirius is the best 13 dollars a month you will ever spend!
1-24-2007 @ 9:51AM
ericsmusclecars.com said...
I couldnt live without it, We are currently trying to provide it with all our Classic cars in lieu of the old AM radio's. Listening to 60's and 70's music while cruising in a classic is the best!!
1-24-2007 @ 10:28AM
John M Grillo said...
It's obvious Doug is one of those guys that probably is to cheap to own Siruis Sattelite radio, so all he does all day is try to figure out his own wacky math crusade to discredit the great achievement of this young company. I own it I love it, my employees own it and love it. This baby is going to do nothing but grow. Remember Rome was'nt built in a day.
1-24-2007 @ 12:03PM
Jonathan Berr said...
Steve.
I can't speak for XM, but the ads on Sirius are pretty lousy. I can't see how any would pay big money for them.
Jonathan Berr
1-24-2007 @ 4:41PM
JAZ said...
At this juncture I would expect that most of the people that own SIRI are pretty much long term believers in the future of satellite radio. I can remember when some of the smartest guru's on Wall Street commented that the internet was a passing fad.
The bears on both XM and SIRI fail to grasp not only the attractiveness of SAT radio, but the importance of new products coming down the pike that will enhance the value of this service, increase subscriber growth and reduce churn. What owners of these companies have is a public/private placement early in its growth stage. It will take time to work out but the risk reward looks significant, at least to me.
1-25-2007 @ 12:31PM
Terry said...
I just love XM Radio!! The baseball season is worth the money alone. The selection of music is great!!! Wish that XM and Sirius would merge together.
1-24-2007 @ 3:06PM
John said...
It's always great to see good comments on a story like this. Correct grammar and spelling make the point even better.
1-24-2007 @ 2:32PM
inventorz said...
You got to be kidding? Are you a Sirius basher too? Have you listened to Sirius? It's great! I listened to both before I bought and for the same price Sirius had better content and it keeps getting better....Once you get Sirius Sat Radio, you will never go back to FM. The talk stations have great entertainment and crack me up after a hard day at work! Is this your job? If it is, you got plenty of time on your hands buy a subscription and listen to it on your computer!.... One more thing! What is this! (But, the cost per month for Sirius subscribers to take the service is $12.95.) Xm is the same cost your math is not wacky.. You are!
siriussubscriber
1-24-2007 @ 4:44PM
Barry Peters said...
This post was not placed for "listners" of sat-rad! Nothing that Doug talked about had anything to do with bashing XM or Sirius regarding their entertainment value. The post relates to investment issues and concerns. Since few of you commented on that subject, it's obvious that you have limitted knowledge in the area. Allow me to summarize: Doug is suggesting / implying that buying stock in XM or Sirius is not a prudent financial strategy at this time. Period. Meanwhile, before either of them goes bankrupt, feel free to enjoy the music, talk, etc.
1-24-2007 @ 10:07PM
John Grillo said...
In regards to Barry Peters statement about this blog post being in the interest of investing in Sirius or Xm, I have this to say, they have a great product and that's what counts these companies will make it! I myself being a business owner and selling a top notch product know if you have you have it period. The financials will work themselves out over time and these two darlings will eventually be running the whole dam business.
Mel Karmazin knows radio he managed CBS for many years and he was good at it. He's not selling his shares I've been watching the SEC filings. And I being a Sirius Sattelite radio stock holder am not selling either this baby has legs and when she learns to run you better hold on.
1-24-2007 @ 10:09PM
XM DUDE said...
I agree that satellite radio is in some turbulent times, but remember when people thought satellite and cable TV was stupid and who would pay for that?
I invested in both for the long term as satellite radio is the future.
The day traders will dump both of them, but us long term investors see a gold mine.
1-24-2007 @ 10:12PM
Lerone Williams said...
Exactly why wouldn't you invest in a company with a lot of upside that's only a $3.75 stock at the moment? This company went from 600,000 to 6million subscriber in one year. Can you spell increased ad dollars. The bottom line is (Long Term Investment) Buy now while it's still cheap! It just makes me laugh when people cant see the OBVIOUS. (SIRI)
1-25-2007 @ 10:34AM
Tim said...
Doug sounds like one of those guys who endlessly churns useless numbers with exotic sounding but equally useless titles just to try and prove himself right. Hey Doug, here's a hint---there exists no company that will be exactly the same 68 months from now as it is today. Therefore using any figure to express a company's position in October of 2012 is just a waste of time. Face it, if you are looking short term and are risk-adverse don't buy XM or Sirius. If you believe as many do in the future of new means of delivering audio and video to the masses without a wire poking out of the back then jump on board. There is plenty of room on either bandwagon these days.
1-25-2007 @ 4:03AM
Dave Philipps said...
I think this is the first time i've seen someone using total market cap divided by the cost of the companies service to predict anything. Doug what is the market cap of e-bay divided by the avg. transaction value.What is the value of msft/cost of a software program. Your conclusion that it will take 68 months to "cover" this useless ratio assumes no churn but it also assumes no subscriber growth. Eighty two percent year over year sub growth would be a hard number to ignore unless you were just trying to bash a stock.
1-25-2007 @ 5:06AM
douglas mcintyre said...
Media companies are often measured on a per subcriber metric
1-25-2007 @ 10:44AM
gloria debartolomio said...
Oh Dougie Cakes, you are such a pin head! Even using your worthless metric shows things have greatly improved in the last year--given the multi-million subcriber rise in 2006 for your fractured fractions. How about the old cash flow metric: Clear Channel vs. Sirius...Sirius wins now and in future!
Dave Philipps you are my hero!!!!!!!!!oxoxoxoxoxoxo
1-25-2007 @ 11:04AM
Tom D said...
I own SIRI in my BMW, and XM in my Soltice. I would have SIRI in both but I DIDN'T HAVE A CHOICE! I now pay full price to two diff compaines, BECAUSE I HAD NO CHOICE! What the heck is this B.S. that we can't have a merger because it wouldn"t be good for consumer? If you buy a new car YOU HAVE NO CHOICE NOW! Period!
1-25-2007 @ 1:27PM
JD52402 said...
DUH!
1-26-2007 @ 10:01AM
Michael said...
It would be great to hear your comments on Churn. All to often Sirius Churn rate has been reported to be btwn 1.8% and 2%. But these numbers are misleading. Sirius uses and average MONTHLY deactivation rate and divides it by an average QUARTERLY rate. This method produces a number that is neither useful or meaningful.
Could you please help us on the true Churn number Sirius is experiencing? Thank you
1-25-2007 @ 6:58PM
Realist said...
The situation with these guys is that they are NOT taking subscriber disconnects correctly and timely. They used that sandbagging to help their Q4 numbers... they are sbout to fall like the house of cards they are.