Sirius and XM: It gets even worse


It can't get any worse for satellite radio investors, and yet it does. Yesterday Bear Stearns cut its forecast for year-end 2007 subscriber counts for Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:XMSR). The bank took its forecast for Sirius to a range of 8.1 million to 8.2 million. The previous estimate was 8.5 million. For XM, Bear dropped its range to 9.2 million to 9.3 million from a previous target of 10 million.

Two days ago, Pacific Crest also cut its rating on XM, saying a merger with Sirius is unlikely.

At its current market cap of $5.32 billion and six million subscribers, Sirius has a value per subscriber of about $890. For XM, the number is about $700 based on its 7.6 million subscribers. But, the cost per month for Sirius subscribers to take the service is $12.95. So, it takes 68 months for a customer to cover that ratio of market cap per subscriber. That would assume no subscriber churn and customers who stay around almost six years.

Wacky math.

Douglas A McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

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