I'm no Texan but I've heard they have an expression for people who puff out their chests to hide the emptiness inside: "Big hat, no cattle." This phrase came to mind in reviewing last night's State of the Union (SOTU) address.
How so? After the 2004 election, President Bush announced that he had earned political capital and now he was going to spend it. In 2005 he invested that capital in a failed effort to reform Social Security with private accounts. At last year's SOTU, Bush proposed 14 initiatives, only one of which was achieved. And yesterday, Bush tried to change the subject at the beginning of his speech by focusing on domestic issues. He deferred discussion of the elephant in the room -- Iraq -- reiterating the surge speech he made a few weeks ago which, according to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll garnered support from 22% of voters. 65% of Americans view Bush as no longer relevant -- hence "Big hat, no cattle."
I won't dwell on Iraq, except to refer to this post arguing for a way to accelerate a solution. On the plus side, I was pleased that Bush initiated a debate on some key domestic issues -- including energy independence and health care -- but disagree with the solutions he proposed.
Here are my thoughts on two proposals most likely to affect the economy:
- Energy independence. Bush called for a 20% reduction in US gasoline use by 2017 by using more ethanol, reforming fuel economy standards, and increasing domestic drilling. I agree with the goal of reducing US oil consumption and disagree with Bush's strategy. I'd encourage increasing vehicle Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency (CAFE) standards -- say by 5% a year over the next several years; push for other alternative fuels besides corn-based ones which use up too much energy to produce ethanol and drive up corn and beef prices; and avoid more domestic drilling.
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Health care. Bush proposed to increase health care coverage in the US by giving everybody who buys health insurance, whether through work or independently, a standard deduction of $7,500 for individual coverage and $15,000 for family coverage. The problem with the plan is that it raises taxes on families which pay more than the standard deduction and it does not do much for the 47 million uninsured US citizens. I liked Bush's Affordable Choices proposal to help states like Massachusetts pay for its universal coverage plan, which requires every citizen -- including its 500,000 uninsured -- to have health insurance and provides state subsidies to those who can't afford it. Criticism of such plans is worrisome but I think it makes sense to experiment to reach a better solution.
SOTU addresses generally don't do much for investors. But this one had some elements which seemed crafted to reduce his political capital deficit. To borrow a line from Massachusetts pop star, JoJo, it's too little, too late.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm, a Professor of Management at Babson College, and editor of The Cohan Letter.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-24-2007 @ 1:25PM
Robert Arvin said...
This is typically Democratic in that your commentary is all criticism and no answers as to what the Democrats would do. You offer all chaff and no wheat.
It's more of the tax and spend, spend, spend, with no outline of what your proposals would be. Just hide until we come up with something and then it'll be too late to change anything. You want the name of the body public to be Ben Dover.
1-24-2007 @ 5:06PM
Michael Schneider said...
At least GW has a health care plan- not a perfect or complete plan but a start.
The part about aiding states is problematic though as it remains to be seen which state plans might be workable- not everyobe can afford insurance either so making it a requirement like car insurance is troublesome even with aid to "poor."
1-24-2007 @ 2:12PM
John Stafford said...
Perhaps you should add the reason(s) as to why only one of the Presidents' fourteen initiatives from last years SOTU was achieved. Have you considered that It might just be difficult to achieve anything when there is no cooperation, just criticism! Ben Dover, big hat no head......
1-24-2007 @ 3:05PM
John said...
Apparently Robert Arvin has a reading disorder, because I read something completely different in the blog above. While there was criticism and suggestions, he might try a reread with both eyes open this time.
1-24-2007 @ 10:33PM
Simon Jones said...
"Big hat no cattle." I vow to find a way to use that saying in the next 24 hours. Since no one here in the UK will give an arse about the Pwesidents state of the yawnion I will endevour to use it in a way that doesn't involve Mr War on Turrrr.