Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is getting a second wind.
Shares of the number one etailer have risen about 12% over the past three months, outperforming rivals including eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) Borders Group Inc. (NYSE:BGP) and Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE:BKS). Heck, Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) barely moved during that same period.
Does this mean that investors are suddenly true believers? I don't think so. There is some enthusiasm for Amazon's digital business like the Amazon Unbox video download service. Plus, Amazon had gotten beaten down so badly for so long that investors finally said that enough was enough. Whether their optimism was justified will be apparent February 1 when the company issues quarterly earnings.
The fourth quarter is critical for Amazon and other retailers, since it includes the holiday season, but Wall Street isn't expecting much. Analysts expect the Seattle-based company to earn 21 cents, compared with 47 cents a year earlier, according to Thomson Financial. Revenue is also expected to fall to $3.77 billion, versus $2.78 billion a year earlier.
But most Wall Street analysts don't seem to be beating the drum for Amazon. In fact, they are pretty divided. Seven rate the stock a buy or strong buy, 10 a hold, and 10 a sell. Their media target is $34, below where it currently trades. The worries about Amazon's growth prospects, spending and thin profit margins seem to be as strong as ever.
Stifel Nicolaus analyst Scott Devitt, who recently raised his rating to buy from hold, argues that the naysayers have it all wrong, according to a summary of his note on the Associated Press. Amazon has the most profitable model on the Internet and yet trades at a discount to the big brick-and-mortar companies, according to Devitt.
Further depressing some investors are the week results from Barnes & Noble and Borders. Borders Group said in November that it was reevaluating its relationship with Amazon. Let's not forget the considerable competition Amazon is getting from brick-and-mortar retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT) and Target Stores Corp. (NYSE:TGT).
Also check out some other earnings reports that we're following, and let us know your thoughts on earnings expectations.
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