Well, you know me. When things look down, I tend to point to the positive aspects, and when things are great, I point to aspects that aren't that wonderful.
So kudos eBay. Indeed. I can't say I wasn't impressed with the financial results of the fourth quarter. I wasn't surprised either along with many of you who weren't; 70% of BloggingStocks readers who voted, thought eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) would beat estimates. Only 12% thought eBay would disappoint.
As analysts (and I) have expected, PayPal has been the crown jewel in eBay's earnings, with its revenues growing 37% in Q4. Market place wasn't bad either, growing 24%. Even Skype showed some more growth. International growth, listing growth and the share repurchase plan sure give investors more confidence too. I also liked eBay's continued listing mix shift. Meg Whitman, eBay's CEO, said eBay wants to concentrate on buyer rather than seller experience, and that's exactly what the shift is doing. Oh, hey, and raising guidance is always a good thing too.
Still, Skype isn't growing as fast as expected, definitely not fast enough to justify its hefty purchase price. As for market place, eBay's revenues were positively affected by two new game consoles offered this quarter and by a strong holiday season. Though an analyst asked, Bob Swan, eBay's CFO, couldn't put a number on how much these game consoles sales contributed to eBay's top line. So as I mentioned during the liveblog, I wonder how the results would have looked without these sales.
Two other things I would have liked differently. It's been a few quarters now that eBay benefits from a favorable exchange rate and a lower tax rate. Also, operating margins were lower this quarter. As for user metrics, I'm not that concerned about it, although several analysts do note lower active users being a concern.
So there you have it. Yes, eBay shares are gaining some 7% now (around 1:30 p.m. ET) to $32.12, and true, the day high was $33.80. But even at $33.80, eBay shares are down from their $44.64 52-week high, and are actually back to their November levels.
Last, despite my concerns, I like eBay and have confidence in its management.
Also check out some other earnings reports that we're following, and let us know what you're expecting.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-27-2007 @ 12:06PM
Tracy Riggs said...
I'm glad you like eBay and have confidence in management. However,the rest of the world apparently does not. No one is buying this crippled dog. People are selling. Yes,it went to $33.00 on earnings, overnight, lol. And quickly it dropped again. We are back to $31.00 and going lower, probably back to 27.00 after sell-off. It seems eBay cannot hold a price above $33.00 very long due to frustrated sellers who are eager to unload. I don't see eBay moving up in the next five years at all. ($25.00-$33.00) EBay is pretty much done for. Ebay might see $46.00 again in 10 to 20 years, or maybe never ever again lol. All in all not a good buy for the long term. CD's give a better return on your money.