Starbucks Q1 2007 earnings: will holiday drinks lift the company's spirits?

When Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) presents its fiscal first quarter 2007 earnings on January 31, the company might want to roll out a new numbered cup, with the quote, "Can't Starbucks just serve its holiday beverages year-round?" Its eggnog lattes and maple macchiatos have customers slurping each winter, and investors licking their lips in anticipation of seasonally spicy earnings.

According to First Call, analysts expect the coffee retailer to earn 26 cents a share, a big bump of 36% over the year-ago quarter. But for analysts who are hoping for a whopping growth rate? They don't sound so hopeful. William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia is worried about the holiday merchandise -- the red ceramic mugs, the CDs, the bears. "Starbucks' pre-holiday markdowns on seasonal merchandise were earlier and more aggressive this year and post-holiday inventory levels were higher leading to subsequently deeper markdowns," she wrote, and it's certainly true that the Starbucks outlet on my corner was packed with holiday goodies in the weeks after Christmas (we picked up a set of coffee-cup ornaments for half price).

With a wealth of small changes to its business -- including a bigger focus on low-margin, but not labor-intensive items like books, music and those pretty red-themed mug; a bigger push into breakfast with eggy biscuity sandwiches; and a focus on spending more for more socially reponsible coffee -- the variables are many. And investors are skeptical; in the three months since the last earnings release, the stock is down about 13%. Are you really this skeptical?

Also check out some other earnings reports that we're following, and let us know your thoughts on earnings expectations.